Member Info for hedgeman

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/189284/equinor-sells-off-two-north-sea-discoveries/

Based on above recent transaction.. sale price is $4.3 boe. If Predators mid estimates (not high estimate) are confirmed by exploration/appraisal drilling for Corrib and Ram... then their 50% share for both fields together is potentially worth c.$520m if I've calculated correctly....high estimate well over $1bn....anyone want to take a look and work through?

Anyone have a view on how much of current 50% they'd have to give away to get free carry?

However you look at it could be many many multiples of current 8p/£8m cap.

That's without Trinidad, Morrocco.

Just heard back from Predator following an email I sent them.

For the Irish assets they confirmed the plan is to focus on farm-ins and partners to fund these assets - so my assumption from this is the activity of Vermilion and their stated intentions is likely to be very helpful. My conclusion - if this goes well no need for cash/no dilution.

Also with respect to Trinidad ... the current plan is for the Pilot programme to produce from 2 wells and this is cash positive at current oil prices.

V.impressed - received reply within 24 hours!

I will add further if opportunity arises.

BB...agree...for me this one is about taking a stake with management and see where it leads... GLA

Av but price low 4s ... think it has potential for 40p+ by late 2019...2020... with success in s.corrib and/or Ram....if Trinidad provides net cash dilution limited or zero turbo charges upside...

No worries, Each to their own... no doubt opportunity arises to trade in and out... all I'm saying is at this m.cap and with the scale of impact on Irish news you could miss out... but it's all relative & depend what your objective is... mine is for 6 figure profit on prd... see below... quote from what I posted earlier ... from 2009 're Corrib

The agreement values the Corrib field at this point, before it has produced any gas, at just over $540 million. The Corrib could produce enough gas to meet 75 per cent of Ireland’s peak winter gas needs for up to a decade.

.... South Corrib (50% prd) AND Ram (50% prd) COULD be v similar.... no guarantees of course... but farm in expected soon ... or Vermilion interest...will start to extract value here.

Pls dyor.

Not a share for trading out and then back in imo... spread too big... and has potential to multibag v quickly on positive news.. any of the 4 assets could quickly take to 20p+
Heavily invested... target is at least 20p before reducing stake....but expect it to go much higher

...and before farm in PRD has 50% of both
...and Vermilion expressing interest
...and Trinidad
...and Morrocco
I have investments in uog and rre both huge potentially, but this is my top pick.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/oil-giant-marathon-sells-interest-in-corrib-gas-field-for-400m-1.792120%3fmode=amp

Gives you an idea of potential value here... $400m for 18.5% for Corrib back in 2009... Corrib South and Ram Head both with potential to equal Corrib!!!

Boiling it all down...financing really needs to be agreed and concluded in a higher Ni price environment at min $12,000 and pref $14,000+.
However, presumably a strategic or mining industry partner with significant debt capacity remains a possibility?

V clever build of assets by this Board.... V exciting stock to be in with news shortly.... so hard to price right now...but could go much much higher.

Clearly Ni price critical... but at the moment market giving no value to assets that require significant financing.
My view fwiw is that a strategic partner most likely.

Having just listened to Paul's operational update - this could be a monster given current m.cap only £6.5m - anyone of the 4 key projects could be worth multiples of current share price -...and this is a BoD that's done it before.

Market is throwing up some great opportunities - I think this is is one of them - I expected SP uplift to 9p+ after an update like that!

Since the SP previously hit 9p we now know
a) Trinidad economics are more robust (b/even $27 per barrel) and on track for cash flow in H1 2019.
b) RAM is potentially an acquisition target and cost of confirming gas potentially v.low due to re-entering wells already in place.
c) New Morocco license in place - quick route to test drilling - could by itself be transformational

pls dyor

Large investment made here...average low 4s....from 2.5 up to 7 paid.

Anyone of their 4 assets Trinidad, Corrib, Ram, Morocco could be worth many many multiples of current m.cap ...

Have no target price on this as positive results from Ireland or morrocco could be huge.

What a great update from prd this morning. Irish assets look set to transform the business.
Current m.cap £6.5m... what's it worth .....multiples?

Agree... would go long way on path to redemption!

Slubby, it's being priced as if hzm will never get it out of the ground!... quite simply it needs higher spot price for nickel....

're $8000 forecast for nickel... Chinese have incentive to talk down price... they want cheap steel. 're basf...no battery expert but I suspect there's a v good reason simple increase in manganese not been used to date.

Inventories still declining...price v likely to rebound strongly while inventories decline especially if US fed more doveish and trump/Xi can sort out trade.

Could go lower... but can change quickly... over last 5 years Glencore went from £4 to £1 and back to £4 again... all driven by economic sentiment and metals/commodities prices.

If multi billion companies can move like that then hzm will too.

Hzm has good assets and a solid FS to bring them online ... Will move sharply when Ni price recovers... could be weeks, months or longer... if China / US work out a deal and US$ falls then will be sooner rather than later imo.

Core value (just carry on doing,) c.£11.50
Risked (a few things planned, Arran, etc, all v doable) c.£14.60
Mostly UnRisked (most things in the hopper come off, not all) c. £23.00
Add deals, additional assets, higher oil price.....who knows ???

Pls dyor.

Normally large range with so called expert forecasts ... not sure many (any?) see Ni price below $14k for long though...if sentiment picks up change can be super fast... what price hzm with nickel at $15k next spring..6p+?

https://www.mining-journal.com/base-metals/news/1351594/bank-sees-start-of-25-year-nickel-bull-cycle