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At 67p against a Cavendish NAV of 107p and a 5-analyst consensus of ~115p, the market is paying only for the producing 2P reserves and attributing virtually nothing to 87 mmboe of 2C, two imminent fully-carried wells with a 60% success chance, Block 3/24 development optionality, or the Kwanza onshore. The key risks are oil price (Angola Blend trades at a discount to Brent), execution on the drilling programme, and the Angolan fiscal/political environment. But the risk/reward looks heavily skewed to the upside — particularly if Pacassa SW delivers results in H2 2026

Claude's synopsis .. a reminder of the play here ..

Market Valuation of Temaris + DEWA

There is no official published NAV from a broker, but community-sourced analysis on LSE suggests a range of scenarios:

At $1.50–$2.50/boe applied to the 2C resources only:

Current market price (DEWA + Temaris, heavily discounted): ~£64.7m / 92p per share

Clean baseline fair value (no exploration upside): £120m–£170m / 170p–240p per share

Total win (DEWA + Temaris + Block 2A Kertang success): £313m–£492m / 445p–700p per share

The formal analyst consensus price target is 114p, which is ~55% above the recent trading price of ~73.5p, with a Buy consensus recommendation. (Stockopedia)

Key Risks & Considerations

Pre-production: Both assets are pre-FID and pre-revenue. Value crystallisation depends on receiving development approvals and agreeing commercial gas sales terms with Petronas/buyers.

Funding: The company completed a £4m equity raise in March 2026, intending to fund the next growth phase including farm-out and development of Temaris and DEWA, with FIDs targeted for 2026 and first gas by 2028. (The Globe and Mail)

Farm-out execution: A strategic partner for Temaris is being sought in H1 2026 — the terms of any deal will significantly affect the implied asset valuation.

SFA PSC terms: While favourable, final commercial terms (gas price, cost recovery, profit share) with Petronas are not yet agreed and will drive project economics.

Bottom line: On 2C resources alone, the Temaris + DEWA combination looks significantly undervalued at current market prices. A simple $/boe framework suggests a fair value of 170–240p per share for just the discovered resources, roughly double the current price. The main catalysts to watch are the FDAP submission, a Temaris farm-out, and FID in H2 2026. This is a pre-production E&P, so timeline slippage and funding risk are real — but the resource quality and SFA fiscal terms are genuine positives. I'm not a financial advisor, so please treat this as informational rather than investment advice.

Yes, Im surprised the sp hasn't drifted given the delay. Thursday's IM will be interesting.

Decent results/forward look.

Re cash .. they have brought forward revenues at cwlh and stag due to the shut downs .. so the improvement from y/e is not representative of the coming Q2/3.

Stag is disappointing timeline .. not clear to me if they are only insured for cost/opex recoveries or whether it includes lost revenues.

Is it 2/3 unhedged? There's a lot of gas at Akatara on fixed price

Deeko ... no probs, hope you're 💯 ... and there will of course be a big spike if good results ... but just as we're significantly indervalued now (63mm appraised boe?) .. 1tcf / 170mm boe net (not appraised) from kertang might take the appraisal well to see the higher values .. of £2+ uplift?!

Although... Could coincide with momentum and progress on dewa and temaris for £++.

I hope youre right ... but a net (to sea) 1tcf exploration success at kertang, before appraisal will imo move the sp about £1 ... market will heavily discount the potential npv.

Of course at that point the upside remains multiples as it moves through appraisal to fdp, fid etc.

Correct re timings. The £10 to £15 might be a theoretical npv per share but we wont be seeing that ... maybe £1 to £2 initially of all results positive imo.

Quitters...

Anything can happen of course, but with a strategic review, highly elevated oil price, 2 big drills to come, I dont see anything like 55p or too much rosk to the downside unless all 3 turn negative.

"The wellhead gas price is comparable to historical Vietnam gas imports and subject to fixed annual escalation."

Can someone w industry experience expand on how a price in line with previous import prices reconciles with what could be a very inflationary period for development and operating costs?

The "market" rate will be determined by policy wording ... so could be equal to hedged price, could be a 3 month trailing average, etc ... unlikely (not impossible) to be daily spot price average of missed production days.

Nope, wont be market rate. Usually policy will define a rate or a method of calculating some sort of average. Also policy will state if there's a delay before insurance commences ... basically it "all depends" on policy specifics.

Also CWLH fpso... article states went in late Jan. So 2 months would be normal .. poss extra some unplanned work ... so should be back on site in April, poss early May latest?

Just need Stag update.

At least wage agreement at Montara accepted

That's only if Montara isn't being affected by union action.

Might be "saved" if the Straits are closed until 2030 lol.

During the best price environment for 5 years??

Stag hurricane damage?

Montara union action?

CWLH fpso in dry dock?

Lemang fixed price

Multi year high oil prices ... is jse actually selling any ??

Market is asleep as far as SEA is concerned imo... the assets should now attract a decent strategic premium... with first gas likely coming into a still depleted 2028 market.

Certainty levels around a partner and terms of any deal for Temaris should also be better than those anticipated just back in February.

All stakeholders and potential partners are hugely incentivised to expedite.

Not without risk of course, but now well funded, the risk looks asymmetric to the upside at sub 100p to me.

Dyor of course.

The bond numbers which looked pretty good, were all predicated on a real oil price of $70 over next few years ... cash fc in the presentation shows move to net cash.

Correct.. dividends and buybacks are not happening anytime soon. Cash required elsewhere.

Key is the GSA for Vietnam .. if they cant negotiate and finalise a favourable GSA in the current environment with the (new) strategic outlook for gas in Asia then they really need to give up.