Member Info for hedgeman

Rockrose Energy (RRE)
North Sea Rockstar | Whitman Howard, 6 Nov

"RockRose has quickly managed to establish itself as a significant North Sea player, with an acquired portfolio of assets which were non-core to the sellers but material for a company of RockRose’s size. We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and a TP of 1460p, representing significant potential upside of 156% from the current share price, a gap we believe will close quickly once investors realise RockRose is trading at a sharp discount to fundamental value..."

Just keep falling, day after day.... at some point with a bit of confidence nickel prices will snap back..
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#lmestocks_30days

Takeover - at what price....? Well if SP and nickel price remain at current levels hard to see why buyer would offer much more than c.4p .....which would be an amazing steal for Glencore ....in fact I'm sure they'd try for a lot less .... but given holdings of other shareholders I doubt they'd sell for less than 5p'ish....maybe more.

Look at some of the smaller oilers now (e.g. RRE) - they had the foresight to invest when oil price was down - multiples now.....Glencore well aware of that - and all their internal forecasts point to significantly higher nickel prices.

I know all small cap miners think they are ripe for t/o - but if there was ever a time for Glencore or one of the others) to do it - would have thought it's very soon. Any significant recovery in Ni price and SP should be back at 3.5p to 4p which would mean significantly higher offer.

As BL says - no company breakers but several company makers.

Think maybe drift/falls are due to lack of news flow - Colter now not until after Wick - so Q1 2019. ...quiet in Italy - revenue in H2 2019.

Jamaica seismic could provide good news soon, or possibly another deal..... but thing is you really don't want to be forced to raise cash in this market - and I know BL won't want to raise at sub 5.5p.

Would buy significant amount more here at this price - but already over allocated to UOG....so patience for me.

Copy = copper

https://www.outsiderclub.com/amp/articles/the-case-for-copper-is-extremely-strong/2936?__twitter_impression=true

Hard to argue against case for copy.... just gotta get it processed

Bit crazy.... sp is saying it won't get financing, nickel price isn't going to go to $14k and none of the big players are interested...really???

It should bounce back a bit. Clearly current Ni price a factor.... but inventories continue to fall.... any positive news on trade deal could impact v positively. At these levels hzm is an amazing bet on nickel price...nickel increases 50%, hzm npv would be 20x current SP.... At some point that is going to become an extremely attractive proposition!

The board need to get on with it...
1. Get the PEA for 2nd rkef out.... they must have all the detail for this having completed the FS.
2. Combine 1 with heavy director buys.
3. Get one of the other major shareholders to buy out LO/big seller
4. Get JM and other non execs out there telling the story
5. Publicise Vermehlo
6. Get Glencore/vale to up their stake

Continually raising at lower than market... if what they were doing was compelling, adding significant value then discount wouldn't be needed.
Am still holding but either oil flows soon generating sufficient cash flow to cover exploration by year end'ish or I'm out.... no more dilution for me.

Zebbo, not late at all... think most here continue to average up based on view of good value out to £14 to £20...pls dyor tho.

Question is given current SP what would glencore have to pay to take out hzm...or prepared to pay? Given they would pick up construction ready mine with complete feasibility, s.t. final permit...+ Vermehlo with significant expenditure by vale... 4p to 6p...Would leave them massive upside?

I'd be surprised if they aren't looking at it....they have a bullish view nickel....they could take out hzm and finance it through their own debt capacity.

Shouldn't be.... can maintain current production to 2025 ... my estimate of discounted cash flow AFTER setting aside 25% of ebitda for decommissioning supports broker valuation c.£14.60....looks like severe market mis-price imo, dyor.

Would be good to see glencore up their stake....or other major shareholders... SP would increase v fast.

At the moment the hzm SP would obviously benefit from a rise in Ni spot price... would be useful to prove the theory of falling inventories putting pressure on Ni price.

Fireman, price that really matters is the first 5 years of production when payback happens... a 2 to 3 year price spike in that period would mean investors make v significant returns.

Time to wake up here.... if Banks sells... could be mfx gets taken over....can't see him selling out cheap... 15 to 20p?

Surprised if doesn't get back to 10p...only £10m m.cap... while it waits for progress in T&T.

50k lot to bet on 50/50 ... buy like that gives a bit of confidence better news is coming.... hopefully!