Member Info for hedgeman

The rig will only be in place for up to 45days. The horizontal well will be drilled from onshore through the already established wytch farm. This is NOT navitus bay (wind farm project rejected in Bournemouth bay).... v unlikely to be any issues.

Got a bit ahead of myself .... production from test Q1..... from the RNS last week - <br /><br />'Successful implementation of the Operational Plan is forecast to result in a combined average production rate of 300 bopd from up to 5 Herrera sand intervals spread over two production wells.'<br /><br />'Operational and environmental meetings have been held in Trinidad to progress regulatory consents and to agree a project schedule that works for all parties given that this is the first large-scale C02 EOR project in Trinidad for a number of years. As a result a target of Q1 2019 has been set for first incremental production from Pilot C02 EOR operations. This is consistent with the terms of the Company's amended Well Participation Agreement with FRAM'<br /><br />'A successful Pilot Project opens the door to expedient upscaling to further develop multi-million barrel producing oil fields onshore Trinidad using the technology and vision being pioneered in practice by your Company'

What am I missing.... aren't prd effectively already producing 300 bopd... at $15 netback (current wti) from their 2 test wells using co2....that's $1.6m pa......there's 80+ wells they can apply this to....with potentially significantly higher bopd output. Looks like strong BoD to me too.

Agree 're netback figure Bradley. Will of course depend on WTI price...which I see is currently $3 ahead of the $73 assumption used for the 10 - 12.... 8m to 15m barrels of oil to go for. Say 10m at $15 netback.... capex low, bit of decommissioning?.... well over $100m... market cap £7m!

Oh Bradley Bear that really is conservative on conservative...!

Just for balance...slightly less conservative view.... PG stated
1) $10 to $12 (at $73.25 oil price) netback was conservative on costs...likely upside here imo
2) wells could produce a lot more..I think he mentioned 400+ possibly dyor
3) there are 83 (?) wells, conservatively assume co2 only appropriate for half...ie 40!
4) no new wells required, low capex

Helpful.. you're exactly right ...'What matters is getting the production online' ...... you really think Charlie is the man to do that...?? ...come on get a grip... what's the evidence? Theres no chance, we need an experienced, focused oil operator to run this...someone who knows how to manage and monetize these assets.

The business has consistently not delivered on its objectives or RNS statements over a long period. RNS statements have been inaccurate at best, misleading at worst. The current BoD has not demonstrated that it is capable of monetizing what all observers believe are strong assets.

Its clear sharrholders need a strong, operational focused CEO full time on the ground in the US to drive things forwards. That is not and cannot be CW.

A bit of short term pain with the changes....but the route to a SP over 1p as soon as confidence is restored, the potential of the assets clearly communicated and demonstratex with production pushed above break even bopd and on towards stated targets.

Listen to Vox Markets Podcast update 04/10/18 -

CO2 process independently validated - produced 6x production uplift - 300 bopd from 2 wells - can be increased substantially.

86 wells in field - say half suitable for CO2. Lox capex, no new well drilling costs.

CO2 supplies secured.

Netback $12 per barrel with oil at $73.25 (v conservative).....not that difficult to see CASH pa of $20m+ PA in medium term ..... and could be a lot higher.

CEO owns half the shares

and then there's Ireland!!

Market cap of just £7m ... amazed it hasn't moved up sharply based on the update.

From what I can see from RNS this year portfolio of well work-overs once access rights are sorted out :-
5 wells at Austin Chalk - these alone have produced initial flow rates of 214 bopd gross
17 wells at Zink Ranch
1 well + gas at Stockdale
9 wells at Forest Hill
Should be plenty of upside once things are organised

GS - Couple of Qu's:

1) How many tonnes proven reserves does this have? If an explorer had those proven reserves pre production it would be worth multiples of CRA current market cap + debt ....is there a rule of thumb for value per tonne of copper in the ground?
2) What is the gross debt and who's it owed to? Likelihood of renegotiating terms?

If this can get to a break-even position without significant dilution it must be worth many multiples of current market cap assuming it can then push on towards nameplate even if investment in plant required.

At $73.25 net-back is stated as $10 - $12.
So at lower end of production possibility (8m barrels) that's $80m - $96m cash over life of wells before capex and decommissioning .... at higher end of exploitable reserves it's $150m - $180m....and if oil goes up $10 its $330m ...... And then there's Ireland!!........against a current market cap £7m.... I'm IN!
Dyor.

Just done v rough npv calculation. Reckon if PRE can extract c.8m barrels at $12 netback finishing in 2029 the NPV could be c.£45m.... rns states there could be twice as much available....AND this is without Ireland.....current market just £7.2m. Dyor

How long does full rehab take....does plant lose more production days for rehab? If they can get to positive cash flow oct / Nov... might have a chance. Crazy thing is... this would have higher enterprise value if it was just a pure explorer with this proven asset and no production!?

Lot of disappointment around the 300 to 500 bopd targets... understandable fall in sp....but on assumption Mayan doesn't require funding (near term cash breakeven,block & pqe investment sales if necessary) then if business reaches 200 bopd in 2019 it should be making annualised profits of c.£1.5m... suggests big sp upside as operations come together.... limited risk from here. Once profitable plenty more oil to go for....could therefore generate significant further upside. Scope for 0.7p short term once news of production in excess of 80bopd.

Think this sums it up....despite potential extra nickel supply from indonesia still looks like a deficit into 2019 anď beyond as long as demand remains firm in China. If deficit pushes prices towards $16000+ then this should be huge help to hzm heading into financing discussions....or becomes v attractive to one of the current shareholders...imo
https://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL3N1VY5LN

Think this sums it up....despite potential extra nickel supply from indonesia still looks like a deficit into 2019 anď beyond as long as demand remains firm in China. If deficit pushes prices towards $16000+ then this should be huge help to hzm heading into financing discussions....or becomes v attractive to one of the current shareholders...imo
https://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL3N1VY5LN

Anyone got thoughts about Indonesia's capacity to significantly increase nickel output and possible impact on nickel price?

Key issue is refinancing / funding the loan repayments by December + sufficient capital to ensure sustainable production. Get these done then once operating at 60% (or more... was already higher in june) of capacity will start to generate significant positive cash flow that will make this a multi bagger entry point even if some dilution imo.

...and btw if funds are required to get to the bopd targets sell block, and PQE investments.... I can invest in those myself directly if I want to.

A lot of noise here....understandable given dosappment with previous guidance / expected timing. To decide whether to buy, sell or hold....two questions need answering...what level of bopd justify the current market cap (or higher)....and is there a realistic route to it. If 80 is cash b/e.... then another 80 bopd would generate approx say 80 x $45 after marginal costs x 365 = c.$1.3m cash pa. I would guess this would support at least the current market cap. With the number of wells and acreage Mayan has available is a net 160 bopd possible in the near term? If it is then the current price could yet prove a big opportunity..... it would be useful if the company could point the way to this with timelines. Also useful if they could scale the potential....once positive cash flow is achieved...is 300 to 500 bopd a medium term possibility from current assets... without fund raising.