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Shouldn't be.... can maintain current production to 2025 ... my estimate of discounted cash flow AFTER setting aside 25% of ebitda for decommissioning supports broker valuation c.£14.60....looks like severe market mis-price imo, dyor.
G.S. assuming they can get the plant running 5 to 6 days a week.. and achieve reasonsble grades what's your view on economics... revenue & ebitda (ie cash) per month? Presume 60% of that to cra?
Given long life to repay debt and other deposits presume equity worth a decent multiple of the ebitda/Cash?
'What'll it take'...Cash flow speaks loud in current market... once significant cash flow is a future certainty will move higher... until then I doubt it..... Greenland assets will take years to get anywhere near production...if indeed even possible... needs the oil assets to come on stream.... not far away.
I liked pg pres at o&g show. Can see he's a good operator. Disappointed it was cut short and v.limited q&a.
Obviously pilot is key to set parameters of what's possible.
Main issue for me is how economics stack up with sensitivity to oil price.... although pg looks and sounds to me like someone who's pretty conservative so I suspect more headroom on oil price than disclosed.
Cash available through to results of pilot ...big tick in the box.
https://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL3N1VY5LN
I know rumours (no proof) of Ni stockpiling but another few months of inventory drawdown and I think we'll see strong move up in Ni price.... let's see.... price back to $14k+ will improve sentiment dramatically....
I think most of us in around 4p.
Assuming hzm take this forward (as opposed to a buyout) JM must not raise the equity part of the finance below the 4p level.... any equity raise for the project MUST be at pre FS price.....if needs be .can sweeten it with warrants etc.... but MUST be at 4p+ or the dilution will be difficult for all those shareholders that have stuck with it. Personally with current small m.cap and some cash no debt..I dont see why this cant be insisted on as new equity dwarfs current m.cap. Anyone speaking to company needs to reinforce this.
One thing I would say is the reputational stakes for CW couldn't be much higher given his role here over an extended period and the very public criticism he's faced .... he could go a long way to silencing his critics if he can sort this out, get the assets all accessible and working and bopd to that 300 target in short order.....can you prove them wrong Charlie?
https://www.lundingold.com/en/investors/corporate-presentations-and-videos/
Shows the financing structure EF set up for Lundin.... a much more complex project, higher capex, lower IRR even with lower discount rate....v interesting.
Strider, most of those 'rabbiting on' ... Prob no FS, just explorers with a few holes in the ground.
This is how the top guy in the industry at Vale is thinking...5 days ago.....
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3840557/Vale-expects-completely-different-base-metals-division-by-2020.html
If you think about 60,000 tonnes per year [of nickel produced by VNC] and a price of $18,000-20,000 per tonne in 2020, you will understand the opportunities