Member Info for hedgeman

All means adding at these levels there should be good opportunity to de risk in 70s+ or higher pre kertang drill / results... woth a decent stake still invested for the 'moonshot' .. always risks of course ... but not often you get this sort of alignment ...

Underpinned by Dewa (imo) .. means we get kertang for free from this mcap.

They must be extremely confident of farm out + enough cash for 12 months as part of the deal, imminently .. otherwise I'd have expected a raise in 30s by now.

Cash + farm out and I'd expect a quick jump to high 40s !?

Progress with Dewa, speculative money for kertang coming in and additional PSCs means it's easy to se 100p++ in coming months ... aimho.

Expect it to start moving north now .. Great price to av down for a 6 to 12 month return ... !

Share price only recovers properly once its clear the plc is funded... and how much, if any, dilution is required.

Need to understand .. there are 2 funding issues here..

1. JV .. lbe have until December to come up w working cap.

2. More immediate is the plc ... this is where we hold our shares .. and where market is assuming raise is coming... only alternative is to sell or dilute jv holding to raise funds for plc ... which is problematic as requires japex gw and they also want our share against working cap shortfall.

A mess indeed. All comes down to japex gw I reckon.

Let's be honest.

There is no 6 month cash runway, they were/are spending 300k+ pcm ... and you can't get down to your last 2 to 3 months cash ...and there isn't much room to cut unless all staff at PlC and in Malaysia take a huge pay cut.

They need some serious goodwill from Japex or Japex will take their 50% and they will have to raise for plc cash.

Even in that absolute worst case there could be significant value if they can get through to a kertang drill ... but that's a long way off.

Hard to see what's going to happen... but I reiterate ... plc funding is no.1 priority imo.

Maybe raise £2m or so ... and if vj makes an acquisition pre end of this year sell their share of jv for decent amount... possibly w a successful lotus drill??

They'll need to have plc funding sorted by AGM imo.

The issue remains how do they fund the plc.

They will run out of cash soon.

So they need to either sell their stake in jv with enough to clear their debts and sufficient cash I plc until they can monetise Malaysia .... or its a placing.

There could be a hybrid ... which is sell a portion of jv to provide funds for plc + push back date to settle wc shortfall. But that depends on agreeing a valuation for the jv ... what's it actually worth ?? ... and depends on japex goodwill.

Farm out process of kertang is a way off yet.

Agree. But ... cash burn was running at 300k to 400k pcm. You cannot afford to get down to your last 2 to 3 months cash... plc cash is more urgent than the jv shortfall... imo

Do peopke understand ... the issue is not what they are producing in the jv.

The issue is the lbe plc ...it has no income and cannot take income from the jv.

So how will the plc pay its bills in coming months.

Either sells or raises funds against an asset or a placing?!

Not the only issue ... how will plc pay its bills ...?

It's ALL about the financing requirements..

1. The Dec 2024 wc hole $17m or their share of it ...

2. LBE plc funding in immediate and medium term

Not sure I can see any easy way out of this without significant goodwill from Japex providing additional funds secured against the 50.1% lbe own in the jv ... and malaysia? This might include a date extensoon for the WC ?!

I cant see why japex would need to do this but perhaps if the relationship is ok?? and with Helge as ceo they just might?!

Otherwise it's clear the WC by forfeiture of the shares in jv to japex and a placing to extend life of the plc??

One upside to that would be that the jv value increases substantially before Dec 2024 (acq?) ... and that provides a route to funding by selling all or some of 50.1% for decent sum to japex or 3rd party??

But plc funding is urgently required!?

It's the sort of thing you might do if Longboat plc were going to sell their stake in lbe/japex ... given japex invested at least partly in Helge and his Norway connections ... ???

Certainly I would think some sort of deal is driving this.

With c. $90m of available liquidity and further RBL capacity ... then on a good production deal this is a huge op at this equity price.

C. £10m of equity could easily be doubled or tripled over night.

Interestingly they mentioned japex "secondees" in Norway office... obvious what they are doing there!! Have no doubts they are working on something pretty big.

Has any one noticed just how ma shared the MMs will take off your hands the last few weeks .. gone from being barely able to place a £1k to £20k+ ... definitely cooking some big news up. I've added a lot sub 20p to bring av down. Confident we see positive news here relatively soon.

I have cast my votes to replace the Board.

The only 'success' so far was Victory. Arguably this only got done because of the 91% effective capital allowances and war in Ukraine changing future gas price curve. Lucky, not execution of strategy.

Parta, Wick, Colter, California all abject failures.

SS remuneration £700k+ pa is ridiculous. Bonuses being paid while value is destroyed and share price declines.

Now bullied into distributing £4m ... which actually seems negligent given stated strategy of buying 'stranded' assets that require funding.

WN - admitted they screwed up the drills. V v expensive mistake.

They are not oil men, they are numbers men who unfortunstely aren't very good with numbers (fairytale npvs quoted for all assets to date).

In summary they have failed to date, their strategy is in a mess with complete dependence on WN and they can't be trusted to invest in more assets ... and they are incredibly expensive.

Best they are kicked out imo.

Has anyone actually read the article by Brailey (TW) ?

All still to prove.

I have a large holding in uog but v disappointed with the number of shares they had to issue to acquire RKH assets.

Fact is... so far through debt and equity the board have raised significantly more cash than the mcap of the company.

No news on Benin or Jamaica.... or Colter.

Lot to prove, which i hope starts with the Ash-2 flow rates and fast track to production and cash flow followed by positive news on Jamaica.

Agree Z... all sounds on track.

BB its only £6.7m mcap, opportunity now imo!