Member Info for HarChris

They've been in serious trouble for a long while now, not sure what the business case is over there in the financial state that they're in... probably just gamblers trying to make their money back?

It goes without saying that it's not guaranteed byp, if it was we'd all have every penny to our name in now.

£3b? Without sounding too downbeat let's be honest a large pharma would get ncyt for a fraction of that, after all they are free to buy them on the open market currently for 96% cheaper.

I’ll concede on this byp as sourcebio can’t be used as a comparator in quite the way I’ve previously stated.

We’ve had numerous people come on here saying there are loads of companies trading well below NAV and others saying there are profitable companies trading below cash but when examples are asked for beyond biotechs and their failed clinical trials (rendering them virtually worthless) or cash rich companies that actually have a huge debt pile (hence not trading below Net cash) none are forthcoming.

I stand by my comments that these shares are highly unlikely to be trading just above cash in a few months time just from bottom feeding buying alone…

Yeah that's true and is why I don't think we'll reach 3 x cash / £4.25 to match them but still my point remains, sourcebio is maintaining that 3 x cash valuation with a very poor long term outlook. There is still a large enough free float to see it drop significantly and yet up to now that's not been happening.

Sourcebio continues to trade at 3 x cash and it has even less of an exciting outlook than ncyt, what with most of their revs coming from travel testing i the past year... so I continue to keep that figure in my head for what novacyt should be comparatively worth - now I don't expect it to actually rally to £4.25 without meaningful positive news/DHSC resolution but it's a reminder of how much higher this can go still simply from IIs accumulating down at this level.

Baby steps!

Previously we've been told that small bolt on acquisitions will be the way we go with IT IS held up as an example so I am pretty sure we aren't going to table a £250m bid for avacta any time soon.

Avacta are valued higher than novacyt you realise?

I've been saying that the LTIP news will hopefully put in a floor, with minimal selling on down days and more enthusiastic buying on blue days that sees the share price rise slowly but steadily back to around £2 before the next bit of news - so far so good on that front.

Unlikely to see big spikes like we've had in the past and sudden FOMO but more II buying from the likes of J Hambro and we might at least lock out all those that were telling us they were waiting for 140p to buy back in.

Avacta hasn't been classed as a covid stock for a long while now otherwise it would be sitting at an mcap not too dissimilar to ODX and ABDX right now.

The thing is Monkeytom if that were to happen all of us that invested heavily at 10p would be left with a decision to make at probably something closer to 50p of whether or not to stick and wait to see how the vrfb sector is affected and how events play out or bank our profits and sit on the sidelines for a bit.

Personally I'd prefer V to stabilise at around $50/kg to let Bushveld develop as they have planned but a temporary spike won't be giving any of us PIs sleepless nights that's for sure!

Who are you even talking to Huey?

No offence to any sales people here but it isn't rocket science, we aren't the Sagrada Familia and looking for the finest architect the world has to offer.

It's perfectly possible to start out as a primary school teacher and twenty years later become a highly skilled sales and marketing expert.

We're not sure yet Didi but fortunately by the time we hear more from the company we should be looking at about £110m in cash to branch out whilst today's market cap is £121m...

Hopeful of having even more cash to develop new revenues streams from a successful resolution with the DHSC too.

These charts have got to be BS, after all there's just no way near enough interest and buying pressure to see the sort of moves you are touting.

My hope is for very little selling on down days and a bit more enthusiasm on up days to see us steadily build back to £2+ over the coming weeks/months before a bit of buying anticipation for April.

Fortune stated exactly two weeks ago that we'd be getting a Bushveld Energy update in a couple of weeks and the price of vanadium is on a very positive upward trend... so I'd suggest we all know something.

A TR1 in the next couple of weeks would do the world of good.

Interesting. I did say last year that the reason for lack of II investment is probably due to the volatility of the share price as it becomes impossible to build a meaningful position. Who knows, maybe this is the chance some have been waiting for to start accumulating?

If this is the case you can certainly see why David states novacyt have strong grounds to assert its contractual rights and also why Graham refused to submit to the DHSC - but now it's dented sentiment as much as it has it makes sense to see it through to its logical conclusion.

The DHSC will have expected the company to kowtow to avoid all of this even though they were in the wrong but now they haven't and have taken the hit (share price-wise) you've got to think the chances of favourable resolution is sky high.

Yes I don't think it's the sort of news, if good and in our favour, that sees the share price slowly build over a few sessions. I would imagine it will be at least a 25% gap up on open and possibly more depending on how in our favour it goes.