Member Info for HarChris

Not quite true speel - Argo dropped as low as 59p a couple of weeks but btc's recovery has seen the share price here rise over 33%... and if it wasn't for today's low figures we'd prob be seeing a 90p print today.

I would argue Argo is undervalued and could be considerably higher vis a vis $42k btc BUT once you settle into a price range it takes good news to push the share price on and anything perceived as negative will halt it.

Now unless btc goes on a rip it's going to be unlikely for argo to break out yet if the opposite happens (btc dropping back into the mid 30s) then expect 60p to be retested.

That RNS was a real bummer, 172 does need some explaining... 30 days hath September all all that.

200 or close and this really would have had legs to push back to a quid.

It does but I don't believe they are going to quite so starkly switch from completely ignoring the share price to going full gung ho the moment the LTIP has been announced.

Unlike some on here i'm not fussed if this takes a week, a month or even 6 months to get back to a more palatable level, all I know is it's only a matter of time (barring terrible management) before the company is valued significantly higher.

I hope they do but you implied that you had some inside information about a 10% share buyback...

It's called baseless ramping.

'So it’s really not far fetched given than we’re estimating it potentially stabilising at 10-20 ebitda this year. Make one aquisition and your at the 30 mill ebitda.'

It's not far fetched certainly but we can't assume 10-20 ebitda from covid in 2024 also... it's possible yes but certainly not a given so the 30 ebitda (40/50 ebitda for higher in your range) will likely need to come from new sources.

We all knew the share price was at a ridiculous level but without any semblance of share price support it didn't matter, all there was as a buffer was the cash and cash level. Now that's changed and although I don't expect fireworks and much excitement over the next few weeks I wouldn't be surprised if gradual buying pressure pushes this back up say 20% to at least a (very slightly) more palatable price. Who knows maybe a good bit more.

James Wakefield is on the board of directors but not part of the executive management team so as far as I am aware he will not be awarded any shares as part of the long term incentive plan.

And whilst there's zero evidence that they 'wanted to bring the share price down as much as possible' it's certainly likely that he had no motivation to take care of the share price until this plan was sorted.

Glad it's out the way and all the talk of BOD manipulation can finally cease.

Yeah I'm pro that too Kaeren but it almost certainly wouldn't be disseminated as an rns. We need to assume in all honesty that this is the case otherwise those members of the r&d team doing such a good job won't be members of the novacyt r&d team for all that much longer...

crl that's what we believe is the case, roughly 770p by December 2024 to receive the full amount of shares or in other words an mcap of £544m. Ignoring the DHSC dispute that appears to be a realistic but challenging target, they'd need to successfully transition post covid to a company earning £25m+ net profit a year.

If covid revenues remain at a substantial level in perpetuity and therefore we remain profitable as is then that target will be easy to reach one would think. If the dispute goes in our favour then the chances are even greater.

Crl good to hear from you too fella!

What makes you say that Kaeren? This is simply the Performance Share Awards programme for executive management - there are seven members that make up the executive mgmt one of which includes Paul Oladimeji, the group head of R&D.

Any performance bonuses given to non executive members of the R&D department are not going to be shared via rns but I'm sure they will receive performance based remuneration and will be rewarded for their efforts.

This LTIP will be a reality check for some. I know there are a few who are sitting on very high averages and think novacyt should be worth 600/700/800 as things stand but this plan in a sense tempers expectations somewhat. This is not a billion pound company right now nor is it a half billion pound company, it's a cash rich business with quite an uncertain future but bags of potential.

The baseline price is probably closer to what the share price would be right now if the share price had been managed better, 2.5 x cash. It is therefore a fair benchmark, with 30% yoy on rises being an exceptionally good return if they were to achieve that.

It would be interesting to know how much covid revenue was generated in January and how much we are currently making today - after all PCR testing in the UK in Jan was the second highest month since the pandemic began and still it seems there are around 300k PCR tests being conducted a day...

@byp of course you are entitled to an opinion I just feel it's fair to pull you up on some of your inconsistencies as you have me, I'm fair game and so are you. You keep oscillating between painted yourself as a LTH that deserves better and one that is ready to sell out at the very next opportunity.

I don't think the company should be acquiescing to either you or me if we aren't here for the long haul.

The share price went from 10p to £12 and back to £1.60 in the space of a few years - there is simply no way to appease those that went in very big at the top of that range or those that bought at the top and don't want to average down whilst also setting realistic targets.

But you've already said you're selling out on the next spike BYP so for you personally it doesn't matter so much either?

Amers I've seen so many comments on here from fellow PIs saying they won't add anymore until x,y or z happens, one of which was I won't add anymore until the BODs have skin in the game.

@byp I can't answer that but one rumour/theory/narrative that is finally put to bed is that DA wants the share price as low as possible for his LTIP, that cannot be argued from this day forward.

Im also mightily relieved that the baseline is so much higher than today's price... I'd have been rather angry if they set it below £2 and it's also good that anyone with spare cash is able to now buy shares at less than half of that baseline price.

Sorry Wilson misread your post on the go, also looks right to me!