Member Info for HarChris

Yah ValJu i'm on your side but no need for the conspiracy theories, this is not the MMs doing, it is a lack of interest in this company right now.

Not necessarily cash value until IIs invest but it explains the difference currently - it's possible PIs take up the slack and see the favourable risk/reward down here. I certainly am but I don't have nearly enough money to move the market.

Porky wanna step up?!

Lombard Odier Asset Management owns 23% of the shares - entities like that don't sell out in the hope to get in at the bottom like many are doing here.

'We’re almost at cash value, what’s different at SB to make them worth 3x cash?'

I would say one very simple thing... they have decent institutional support.

I wouldn't get too distracted by what's happening at ODX, we're in a dif situation to them now. Sourcebio is the one to keep an eye on as it's almost identical to us (minus the dispute) - share price holding up fine today and continuing to be valued at 3 x cash.

It's not the worst case because there is no situation in which what you are describing is possible, they are not demanding over £100m be returned... again if you read the posts over the weekend and have some semblance of comprehension skills you would soon understand that - but it seems that is not something you are willing to do.

You can work with whatever figure you want but it just goes to show you have absolutely zero interest in understanding the dispute.

Bumping this thread for Donald to learn a little more about the dispute and the possible outcomes - happy reading pal.

Novacyt will return to the value they were pre pandemic if their £102m cash reduces back to £1.5m (with no new business to show for it) and their £0 debt goes back to £7m (with no new business to show for it).

Shell I would say somewhere between £70m and £130m.

ODX has raised significant cash diluting shareholders in 2020, they've spent all that cash with up til now nothing to show for it and are currently mulling another raise to keep the lights on - I don't think they're comparable to ncyt right now.

There is a major difference now to this time last year Lewis and that is the share price and valuation of the company. This time last year many of us would have invested at £8.25 a share, at a valuation of almost £600m with the hope that Graham was able to achieve his aim of turning novacyt into a midcap company - something in the region of £1-2b.

Fast forward 12 months and the company is valued at £118m. Investing now does not require one to believe that Graham's ambitioun of becoming a midcap company be realised, just that we reach the sort of level that we were one year ago. If you also believe that the company is just as well placed now as it was last year to reach midcap and you're right, well now you have the chance to see 10-20 times return.

It's important for those of us like me taking bigger risks at this price to believe in the new CEO - personally I was happy with David's interview at the time but it's good to see others are seeing it the same way as me after reading the transcript.

You really think there are traders that are making money off those sorts of moves this morning rather than just speculative/random buys and sells that lead to changes in the share price?

A) we're not up 5%, b) I don't think you understand the stock market and how it works !

EXMEX exactly, it's unlikely a CEO of a company the size of novacyt pre covid would even have half a mil lying around, he evidently used some of the money he was awarded for the purchase.

The next day it was announced that James McCarthy had bought 10000 at £9 a share - what about his more than 80% loss? Does it only count as ramping if you make money?

You think it's going a lot lower Pebbles? I'd think at less than 20% above cash (vs sourcebio's almost 290% mcap vs cash) we're unlikely to see things get too much worse.

He describes himself as an acerbic writer... if by that he means sour/bitter then he's summed himself up very well!

Rubbish, we were all fully aware of the LTIP that was adopted on the 1st of November 2017 with the options settled at the share price on the 1st of November 2020, it was talked about on here constantly around the time - we therefore knew that when Mullis bought half a million £s worth on Nov 11 which was declared on Nov 12 that he was not benefiting from any subsequent share price rise (unless of course he was to then sell those shares bought at £8 at say £12, which he didn't).

One may make an argument re his buy in May 2020 but it was only £30k worth at £3 a share.

A small buy back would at least signal that they are listening and are interested in seeing the share price recover.

The price action on the 25th is quite revealing to me... the shares hit a low of 230p on Monday, closing at 238p but after the trading update the share price opened at 230p, only slightly down on the close the day before which suggested ambivalence to the rns - it's as if there was a tug of war between the low revenue figure and the high cash figure and only once it looked like the former was winning out did the share price nosedive.

More than anything it was probably David's 'you'll get much more detail in April' comment that facilitated and cemented the sell off, a signal to sell and buy back at a later date if ever there was one.