Member Info for HarChris

It can be valued at less than the sum of its assets because assets depreciate, cash can evaporate with little added value to show for it amongst other reasons. Aim companies generally struggle to attract investment so need active share price management, bringing IIs on side or exciting the market with regular updates and positive marketing of its successes and growth. It's often all about momentum, making the most of shareholder enthusiasm to help push the share price on and on as once a share price settles in a range it can tend to stay there for an extended period like we are seeing now around 9p, even if it seems nonsensical. Last year that range was looking like 15-17p but downgrading of forecast and with none of the updates we were hoping for (BE, ESKOM tenders) that slipped considerably with little to help it recover.

We're got to believe that either a) the company are listening and are going to do something about their poor communication in the future or b) show the sort of growth that simply will not be ignored. I'm very confident in both, but particularly the latter, and so I'm putting my money where my mouth is and waiting patiently for the eventual rerate.

If that doesn't happen you've got to think we're going to be a target for a lowball takeover offer.

I don't like the way Saylor says he'll buy bitcoin all the way to zero, it basically reeks of a gambler who won't accept they're wrong (if it turns out that he is).

Get rich or die trying seems to be the MicroStrategy way... glad I've got no money invested over there.

Many here don't seem to grasp the enormity of making over £100m cold hard cash (after write offs) over the course of the pandemic and seem to think we are now just in the same boat as other more established players... we aren't. Most of those competitors struggle to turn a profit and when they do it's usually just a few million followed by a return to loss.

If there was a threat of £30/£40 mil cash burn a year going forward then the current valuation might be justified but there isn't whatsoever, most likely 2022 will bring in a small profit.

PI100 back to being negative. Normal service resumed.

;)

I think it possibly does on the specific occasions when a share price is crashing or spiking, at least to those that get caught up in the panic that you find on boards like these.

If you want to really understand who on a forum is a ramper and deramper then keep an eye on when certain posters turn up - derampers will almost always save their negativity for when the share price is tanking as this is when they'll have the biggest impact whilst vice versa rampers will only show up when the price is rising in order to help them get their own exit price.

Those who continue to post whatever the share price are likely more genuine.

Well at least we get a break from being told this is going to 150p/cash/122p/100p for a few hours - let's hope it keeps pushing on and those tedious f***ers stay away!

This isn't the US government, this isn't the highest echelons of finance or anything like that, it's a small cap pharma stock - Graham won't be anywhere near the novacyt head offices or involved in any way whatsoever.

All these conspiracies are simply delusional.

They've already won the euromillions.

No CO you're not wrong some type of fundamentals will kick in at some point but right now they mean jack all with the sort of downward pressure being seen. Alongside the lack of buying interest there's probably tons of PI traders with small short positions putting further pressure on the share price.

I'm also not arguing that we're suddenly going to be back at £5, I'm not convinced that's the case and those underwater will probably continue to be underwater until the BOD offer something substantial - but I do think once things calm we could be back at or at least close to 2 x cash i.e £2.80 a share pending the next update.

Shares often get dragged down if they are considered the same sector, in this case 'covid stock' - currently some are rightly taking a big battering for failing to produce anything of note in two years and we get pushed down along with it.

Nobody is going to be following vague trading charts if the share price goes 10% below the cash level.

I've already highlighted that ak_gabba, the point I was making is that it's only because we don't have II support that the share price can fall to this sort of low relative to the cash level and so it is temporary - sentiment affects us harder than a company like sourcebio but in the long run it will sort itself out.

Nobody will answer me why sourcebio is valued at £99m with £33m cash, no 2022 outlook, barely any non covid revenue, lower margins than us, higher risk of cash burn.

They really don't need to support the share price right now, any drop is only temporary as they aren't needing to raise - fundamentals are not affected.

What does need to happen at some point is evidence that David's communication will be different to the past leadership - the jury is still out on that but the proactive interview at least gave me some hope that this will be the case.

Agree Wilson it's probably the wrong time as some must be hurting today, many will have chased it all the way down and be in deep trouble now, so sorry.

Still... we're not immune from share price collapse!

There's going to be some potential bargains for novacyt to consider snapping up - odx for £12m for example.

It's only a hypothetical as there isn't a situation where novacyt relinquish £100m cash without anything to show for it at all.

Well pre covid BYP novacyt had £1.5m cash and £7m debt and were at 15p - so strip away £100m cash and they would be at the same cash level as pre covid but with no debt vs substantial debt (relative to working capital).

So I think stripping out £100m cash would actually leave novacyt at about 30p

Triumph what's your view then on SourceBio which is just about the only company that can be compared to novacyt right now. Reliant completely on covid up until now, selling PCR tests and equipment, similar revs, lower margins, bigger risk of cash burn - cash £33m, mcap £99m.