Member Info for HarChris

Kitty the baseline is £3.54 and today the share price is £1.58... that's more than 100% just to get back to last month's baseline!

Good news for those buying down here though that's for sure.

Well those still claiming David has been trying to bring the share price down re the recent trading update and beyond at least have no grounds for that now as that was past the 31st Dec date.

I follow many AIM shares and barely ever see director purchases, it's just not that common on AIM and when I do see them they are usually for meagre amounts.

Shorting below bid price I would imagine in an attempt to spook the market and drag it lower.

No I don't think for a second this is going to £49m mcap barnetpeter even if what you hypothesise were to come true - classic timed scaremongering just as the share price looks wobbly again.

And you only have to look at ODX to see that the market still recognises there is money to be made from covid - two years of the pandemic have come and gone, they have just a few million left in the coffers following their raise and STILL news of a CE mark at this stage brings attention back to them and a bit of a share price rally.

One very misleading point that is often trotted out on here is that we've been saying for ages that the share price will never get close to cash and so we must already be at the bottom - it's not true at all. Many have said on here for the past five or six months that cash of around £100m is a floor which the share price almost certainly won't go lower than. Admittedly I didn't think we'd get as close as this but now that we're here it shouldn't change that thinking, it just means that we really are close to the bottom based on all the info we have currently.

And the only reason we are talking more about lack of downside than potential upside RBM is because we are in a rather unique position where it's much easier to quantify downside than is usual - the majority of AIM companies run on multiples of their NAV, multiples of their profits so if broader markets turn they can quickly see 50, 60, 70% falls sometimes based on nothing but general market fear.

It's always tempting to try and second guess when news lands, to jump out of one into another 'about to takeoff' but how often do we get these timings spot on?

Spot on DRB. Of course even from here there's no certainty this is the bottom, we might find out tomorrow we've lost the resolution, maybe it's the worst case and we see our cash drop to £75m and the share price moves closer to cash once again i.e towards £1.05 but we are talking about the near absolute worst case scenario. If you applied that to every company you'd be looking at 95% drops, it's not the way to evaluate an investment.

From here downside is (realistically) very low and upside (given a longer time horizon than a few months) is at least a few hundred percent, probably more.

That's a very good point. The £102m cash is AFTER a decent sized acquisition and huge amounts of R&D over the past 18 months, profits made are considerably more than that even after the write down.

PI100 you are the world's best hindsight investor - if only you could get access to Bernard's Watch you'd be the world's richest also!

If you really believe it's so corrupt PI100 why didn't you follow them and buy into ODX yesterday? If you were so sure that traders know exactly what's going on?

They don't, it was just speculative buying after such a big sell off and then news landed fortuitously, 90% of the time it doesn't happen like that.

But it wasn't, it was what it was. We were all aware of the LTIP and its rules, as part of our investment thesis we should have kept in mind that it was possible that there was a concerted effort to get the share price as high as possible around that time and invest accordingly - we could then hold off if we felt there was a chance Graham was 'ramping' and wait til the share price retraced to a more reasonable level before throwing our own money in the ring.

Personally to complain after the fact and with luxury of hindsight strikes me as a bit sour.

Hold on if you can afford to argument is redundant and illogical - hold on if you are fairly confident that the share price will recover in time even if it does get worse first is a different argument and much more logical.

It's always a good feeling when the decisions you make turn out to be the right ones financially - of course you are only feeling this way because events have gone the way they have currently. It's just as possible that in a few months your new investments tank and we finally see a proper recovery here.

Glad it's work out for you so far RBMInvest!

Gonna have to suck it up and hold on knowing that there's a lot that can be done with £102m and with time the plan will come to fruition or sell and wait until you're happy with the direction of the company (but maybe have to pay considerably more).

Yes I expect it to get bukkake messy before it gets better - without it there's no stimulus to start the next bull market.

Fair value is a rather elusive thing to quantify so I tend to see it in terms of a range, a rather large range in this instance - for me fair value at this time with all the cash, the positive/negative potential of dispute resolution and unknown future, is something between cash (£1.46) and about 3.5 x cash (£5.11) - I suppose taking the midpoint has my fair value at around £3.50.

Obviously we're much, much closer to the lower range right now.

Not everyone is like you trolling boards without placing a penny in a stock, many would consider that a life badly spent.

I'd imagine the majority who bought in the pennies and sold near the top will have jumped back in a good few times on the way back down... it's human nature to chase what seems like a bargain!