Member Info for HarChris

I echo CaptainSwag, this discussion has been illuminating and is helping me finally understand the dispute and the best/worst/likely outcome.

Worth noting that many came on here a few weeks ago casting doubt over the cash figure, predicting something closer to £50m than £100m and although BYP is right when he says we can't be sure what has and what hasn't been included in that exactly, it sure is comforting. Having been willing to make a purchase about two weeks ago just above 300p it's been impossible to resist continuing to buy nearly 50% lower when results, to my eyes, really weren't bad at all besides the disappointing revenue figure.

I don't mind personally being called a trader... I no longer expect to be heavily invested in novacyt long term having being stung so many times and being down so much in recent times but my issue was with you accusing Larry of being a manipulative swing trader with what seems like zero evidence.

The problem with you byp is that you don't seem able to distinguish between subtleties, nuance is lost on you. I openly admit to attempting to trade Argo and have an on going dialogue with many on their bb and they are fine with me sharing when I enter and exit. I've said many times I have no personal belief in the long term staying power of bitcoin so I'm just trying my hand at trading Argo at the moment, catching a break when momentum is with it and vice versa.

If I was doing the same with novacyt I would share that, why would I be inconsistent when I've never been devious elsewhere? Anyway what I call trading is really actively investing more than anything, other than with argo. I'm just trying to see if I can turnaround 10% a year as a second income.

Ps whilst I did make a personal fortune in 2020 from novacyt and synairgen I find that tweet from Harry hilarious. I reckon he's just about the only human being on this planet that listens to me!

There are very obvious manipulative pump and dump merchants on twitter that have zero integrity and regard for others but they aren't hard to spot and they don't stick around on one share for very long.

And again this is where you let yourself down @byp. Unless I am mistaken you have absolutely no evidence that Larry is a swing trader and taking PIs for a laugh? Do share your proof if you do.

Anyway what you call a trader is not really what a true trader is, unless you think it's clever of you to have held exactly the same amount of shares all the way down from 900p to 175p and only then do you deserve to be listened to? The majority of those you seem to pejoratively call a trader are probably like me, overextending themselves when the share price is at its lowest and reducing a little on the way up - that's not the same thing as proper day trading. If I hold 15000 shares, buy an extra 5000 after a steep fall and then sell those 5000 for a small profit I'm not going to will the share price down am I? I still have 75% of my holding, it's just portfolio adjusting. I am well down in recent times on novacyt, just not as much as if I'd just bought once and held all the way through.

An analyst call with pointed questions or even just another Q&A would be great but it doesn't appear likely at the mo.

Yeah Kaeren I had ~170p in my mind as the bottom after Tuesday's trading so whilst heavily in here already decided I would only buy for now below that. Let's hope for all our sakes it's up from here!

I thought they'd be a bloodbath Wednesday morning and the bottom would be hit, instead it merely dipped before an attempt at a recovery.

It's meant the worst of it has come a bit later.

Bought 4500 more this time at 169.6 - my loss if it all backfires!

'so ncyt could potentially gain £73m or lose £19.8m'

It shows how complicated this is as nobody is in full agreement with each other but having provided £40.8m of goods that haven't been paid for, having already written down c. £30m and with the trade receivables added into the mix it seems evident to all and sundry that the chance of receiving money is greater than that of refunds and so it quickly becomes clear how asymmetric the risk/reward is at this price..

Yes me and many others have called this wrong plenty of times now, yes it has kept going lower than we ever thought likely, these are undisputable facts. But we are talking about a best case scenario of ending up with ~£170m cash, no debt at a current valuation of £121m and even if you took a realistic worse case situation of something (rather unlikely) of £30m refunds and nothing in return we'd still be on over £70m cash. In no way disastrous at all and worth the risk imo.

Don't you think if there was any real threat of losing out on all the non payments AND having to refund tens of millions there would be additional information around the cash pile? It seems to me they are confident that the cash is safe and what really we are waiting on is whether or not we get any compensation for the stock write offs and the Q1 non payments... do you see it this way?

When you say 'all of it' I'd hazard a guess you have no idea what that actually even means.

Chris/DRB are you able to quickly break down that £125m? I've only really been working with £40m figure from the 2021 non payment after the write downs of stock but I'm failing to reach the £125m when working back through the details...

Thanks.

Anyway the main takeaway I think is that Sourcebio is a good stock to keep an eye on and track what sort of premium the market is willing to give them in relation to their cash reserves.

Whilst we're in a unique position and can't easily be compared to other companies about the only one I think it's fair to match up side by side is sourcebio. They only listed last year to take advantage of the covid spike and are a diagnostics/laboratory services company selling into very similar markets to novacyt. Like us outlook for 2022 is pretty much non existent as the majority of their revenue (slightly less than us but very similar) is derived from covid.

For 2021 they posted £92.4m revenue, EBITDA £24m and are debt free with £33.3m cash. Their market cap is £97m.

My take away is the same as what it was before... whilst cash matters most in the long term , revenue is 'sexier', growing revenues garner interest and headlines whilst declining revenues are a real turn off. Sourcebio's mcap of 3 x cash seems about right and is what makes me think novacyt will still see a short term boost at some point, not to that level, but to something like 2 x cash /£3 a share when the dust settles.

Where else would people hand over hard earned money and end up with nothing back? The bookies, the casino, anywhere where risk/gambling is involved. Would you complain to the bookies if you lose your money and demand your money back? Maybe but they won't be interested. Would you demand an apology from a football team if they let you down after the manager talked them up so beforehand? You might risk your life savings on them based on what was expected to happen but things don't always turn out as plan a la novacyt and this farce!

Same here. We've got to hope the VRFB industry is resilient enough to withstand a short spike in vanadium prices. In the meantime we'd all get the chance if we wished to bank a little profit and sleep a bit better at night!

He's the bloody grim reaper is Alde!

So your point is that GM failed to meet his own targets? No arguing that but he's gone now, let's hope DA's done the opposite and put out more conservative targets that he expects to easily meet.

I didn't say that, I'm saying whether the cash turns out to be £80m, £100m or £120m my buying thesis remains the same... it completely eliminates mid term financial risk and vastly reduces executional risk giving the BOD the sort of space and freedom that is seldom seen for a company on AIM that tends to be living pretty close to the financial edge at all times.