Member Info for HarChris

Fair enough then I quickly realised that this was a bigger sell off then I had anticipated and conceded that this was a falling knife and accepted they'd be no recovery yesterday, with the following morning adding to the woes.

And spoke of regretting rushing in too soon.

No don't filter negative views, it helps as a gauge for what the general mood is following any update.

Today's is very good, only one negative an none of the usual coming out of the woodwork this close to open... I see a blue day!

This is what I said yesterday and stand by it : Nobody touches a falling knife on day one, traders enter on day three or day two if day one seems excessive. I think it will be the latter.

I am not predicting where it will be in a week or two.

No I didn't say that. I am saying that buyers who realise that novacyt is obviously worth more than £130m with £102m will buy once the share price has settled somewhat, they just won't buy at peak sell off even if the value is ridiculous.

This plays out almost identically every single time.

And no I didn't say that, I said I bought at 194 confident that at some point in the next two or three weeks it will be higher, quite different. And then I said I expected it to be higher today, day two.

This is simply what happens with a falling knife and doesn't represent actually belief in novacyt /DA to succeed.

BYP just last week you said this to me 'Wow, are you seriously looking at the French price 1 hour before opening?……pretty amateur.'

Hahaha anyway I agree the opening will be a bloodbath as I said yesterday, still think buyers will step in later today.

So in other words the cash pile is a third of what they projected and the SP is one eighth - in that sense we are undervalued easily!

Maybe CO although if David fails to turn this around all the disgruntled holders will have either finally sold out or had their holding reduced even more whilst the fresh faced bottom feeders who got in low will be less apathetic and willing to give their vote to the directors - I don't think it ever really plays out the way we think it will.

I've got to admit that I was left feeling a bit deflated today but at least the company has bags of time and a huge margin of error to turn things around. They don't need to raise money so the share price isn't as important, they don't need to bring IIs on board for a raise so that isn't crucial right now, they aren't servicing any debt that could get them hamstrung, they could easily cope with unfavourable economic conditions (and maybe even benefit from cheap acquisitions) etc etc

Very unusual circumstances the company are in and sadly they won't be feeling the same pressures and anxiety over the share price that us PIs are - all the while the finances are healthy there is every chance of getting back on track even if it takes a bit longer than we'd all have hoped for.

My point being it would take the most unimaginable failure to end up back at £37m revs a year, loss making and with just £4m cash. And yet the share price suggests it's likely... see the disconnect?

I get that but even if ncyt squander £20m, £30m, heck even £50m over the next year with their growth plans they'll still be in a far better financial position than yourgene. The worst case is very much built in at this price.

A 'dip' to 122p as some traders on here are referring to would put us on a par with yourgene and sourcebio, one working hard to stay solvent and the other similar to us in many ways by with just 30% of the cash to take into the next stage of development.

Every comparison highlights that the SP is unlikely to stay quite this low for long. You've got something like Yourgene that failed to make profit throughout the entire pandemic and only made a profit in one of the last five years (£3.4m), revs coming in at £35m with cash at last count of £4.7m vs debt of £0.2m and they are valued at £80m...

In comparison we have revs of £95m, cash £102.m, debt £0 and mcap £128m .

It doesn't have to be a choice of sell or wait to breakeven you know? Another option is aiming to recoup some of your money back without pushing it too much, say a very realistic target of £2.25? Just saying.

Sure, on reflection I can understand the drop but I don't believe investors will sit on the sidelines once the panic has subsided. I don't believe the SP will just dwindle to cash levels and stay there knowing that there is a plan that is currently being worked on and will soon start to be implemented by a CEO with a background in marketing. Even the whole 100 days thing was an attempt at PR (presidential/statesmen reference).

I know we aren't going to see dramatic rises in the short term as there is too much uncertainty and no clarity of what the future holds but I'm also confident that investors will just be too tempted at this price and will take their chances and buy and tuck them away for when that strategy properly comes into action.

I'm braced for an ugly open however unless we wake up to an RNS.

I myself would have saved adding so heavily at 194 if I actually thought the update was poor enough to cause such a sell off but I didn't. As I said this morning the revenue was disappointing, no doubt about it, but the cash figure was better than expected and I thought the market would be comforted by finally hearing from David. The proactive interview was also a sign of things being different in the future compared with Graham doing poxy interviews with two bit outlets giving one sentence answers.

Nobody touches a falling knife on day one, traders enter on day three or day two if day one seems excessive. I think it will be the latter.

PI100 this sort of thing goes on all the time. Shorters know traders follow a three day rule and usually at the very earliest start buying in on the second day. I was a bit stupid and went in early but hey still confident of some sort of recovery here and have faith there's still life left in the ncyt dalmation yet...

I'm expecting a bit of a bounce tomorrow ideally alongside some directors buys but just my guess.

They had £7b more debt than ncyt !

You think instead of doing what they normally do, putting out results 7am, they should have spotted wider market turmoil and quickly rushed to release it to provide maximum pain mid session?

I think you're starting to go down a conspiratorial rabbit hole with no grounding in reality.