Member Info for HarChris

No it's not, it's just a standard AIM share, i.e volatile.

All this churning has one obvious benefit - SO closer to exiting completely. Matter of time one would think before it breaks to the upside.

You do realise there was a diagnostics industry pre covid and there will be an even bigger one post covid, don't you?

Novacyt aren't a start-up formed in the pandemic to sell PPE, they are seeking to become an international leading POC diagnostics specialist.

The most annoying thing about this situation is that the 'gap hypothesis' can work because traders spend day after day getting it into everyone's head that a gap must be filled before a move north. It leads to many with funds just waiting for the inevitable and feeling like they may as well be a bit more patient and get in slightly cheaper.

I myself am sitting here on a few thousand more ready to buy at ~46/47p and hating myself for it!

They will almost certainly have dumped what they wanted to dump by now so you got that wish. Just waiting on some buying pressure and you'll get your second.

I imagine there's legitimacy in combining technical analysis with fundamental analysis and using news to dictate one's trading but I'm convinced none of these traders that bypass rns' are actually making money, they can't surely! I mean I've been arguing with a twitter trader recently and he didn't know there was a distressed seller at play here, he didn't even seem to know that what pharmaceutical sector 4D pharma were in or what LBPs were but he was still convinced on this being overvalued and worth just 30p!

Ahhh I do often overlook that key point re Vametco owernship.

As for other figures I attempted to correct I see we're just looking at ratios differently so I'm sorry about that, had no reason to correct any of it in hindsight. As you were!

I do think it's worth thinking about the Enterprise Value of the two businesses as this is relevant what with BMN trading around their NAV per share whilst

No and neither do I know how much inventory ready to go Largo has. This was only a simple comparison but there wouldn't be any metric/comparator that would find Largo to be of better value except I suppose the value added for being listed on the nasdaq vs AIM.

Nothing is priced in here, the current valuation is ludicrous.

Oily you've made a glaring error - whilst choosing the correct figure for Largo's guidance you've gone with 3650mtV for BMN's guidance for some reason?! It's actually 4200mtV-4400mtV. Also you calculated Largo's Mcap:gross prof wrong, it should be 3.2... So I've made the changes for you:

BMN
Attrib group production of 4300 mtV
Ave cost per kgV $25.50
Gross profit £80m
Mcap £149m
Mcap: gross prof 1.86

The Mcap: gross is 3.20 vs 1.86.

More saliently from an enterprise value BMN is way, way undervalued vis a vis Largo.

AND Largo themselves have failed to catch alight since the sharp rise in V so they are likely to be higher than where they are now soon, too.

DRB agree with most of that but the 30 day rule very much applies for the full year results. I did take a look at BOOM... their full year results are on April 25th so the 30 day rule holds for them since the last director purchase was March 23rd.

They also have a quarterly trading update on the 11th April but with those updates a two weeks closed period is sufficient.

No doubt Porky. I would call it a perfect storm for the shorters here - not only was there a distressed seller but also the failure of trials from the likes of Seres and Forte definitely cast doubt on the whole sector.

I think my own recent trading will be reflected more widely over the next few weeks... I watched the shares fall all the way from 90p and didn't make a purchase until my small buy in late Feb at 29p. I'm sure if shorting was my thing and I had no guilt shorting a small cap capable of changing lives for the better then I too would have been shorting 4D (I do have a conscience thankfully!). Since Wednesday @ an average of 53p I've increased my holding from £4k to £30k and feel much more comfortable with this holding than I did with my 29p buy pre Wednesday's news.

My knowledge of 4D is not as comprehensive as many of you on here and will need to do a lot more research if I'm to become a long term holder but I certainly think at the very least we'll see some aggressive price action in the coming weeks and those of us that want to will be able to reduce a little around the pound mark.

Ps good to see you crl

You have no understanding of why the SP is where it is or what I was talking about do you?

The SP is only where it is to start with because Steven Oliveira became a distressed seller from September 2021 and has been forced to exit his 4D position. Forte Biosciences, in which I believe he owned around 30%, crashed in September overnight from $30 a share to $4 (now $1.5). He immediately began selling his 4D shares but has been feeding them into the market steadily, around 3.5 million a month, presumably to avoid crashing the share price / sticking around long enough to catch any rise back up (like the other day).

As it is common knowledge what Oliveira was doing the SP began to fall and fall, dropping from 90p when he first started selling to a low of 25p a couple of weeks ago. At that stage Oliveira was getting closer to exiting and the market cap reached such a ridiculous low that the shares bounced a little.

Then we get to Wednesday. Whilst the news was excellent we were still in the position that Oliveira held around 6.6 million shares. We all knew that, we knew he was likely to be dumping into that rise and the next day we found out for certain that was the case. He dumped 3.3 million out of a total volume of 37 million and many others will have also dumped in the 50s/60s/70s knowing that Oliveira was doing the same. He still had 3.6 million shares to dispose of from Thursday onwards and this explains the further retracement, Hence I am pretty confident that if Oliveira was not around this would have gone a lot higher Wednesday and held onto the gains much better throughout the rest of the week.

So no I don't think it's going to necessarily be £1 just like that... I literally said 'it might take the next bit of news for £1 to be breached' . That bit of news might never land, it might be all downhill from here, this isn't my point. My point is that the share price has been suppressed for 6 months and that downward pressure is about to be lifted, so expect the next bit of excellent news to cause a much more explosive reaction. And who knows, maybe a steady rise back to a pound and beyond without any further updates now that Oliveira is finally out or very, very close to being out (volume 16 million Thurs/Fri).

SO sold 3.3 million shares between the 18th and 23rd, most likely the majority of them being sold into strength on the 23rd. He then still had 3.6 million to dispose of from Thursday onwards.

Predicting with accuracy what would have happened under different circumstances (SO already out by last Wed) is impossible but my guess is £1 a share would have been hit by early Thursday with a small pullback to end the week around 80p.

It might take the next bit of good news for £1 to be breached but when/if it comes there won't be a distressed seller to halt it - amazing risk/reward at 50p now.

I don't think it's a bad time to put it out either - after a solid but uninspiring week we now have this to boost positivity over the weekend and it gives plenty of time for the news to be digested.

Six weeks ago DA had no skin in the game whatsoever and some of us were rightfully concerned about that. Now we know he makes a fortune if the share price reaches £7.70 by the end of 2024 and also has £100k of his own money in - better, much better.

To those saying why didn't he buy at £1.40 instead... this is a signal not an attempt to make as much money as possible. Getting £100k together and taking advantage of the artificial low caused by the outbreak of war would not have been a good look, it would have been a terrible look.

Today he coughs up £100k at £2.31 which is DA telling us this is still well undervalued and to expect something positive come April...

And there it is, DA buying in with £100k's worth - great news to end the week!

I've done similar too. I feel lucky/guilty to be able to buy at 50p today with SO out/more or less out and after such positive trial news - long termers have been taking on far more risk for very little reward sadly.

Ps good move but probably better to get a new username if you're dipping in and out ;)

Good reaction to their Jan and Feb update - up 9%.

Completely agree, there is nothing to worry about re placing at this price. IF the share price rallies over the next few months then that's the time to wonder if a sudden placing might land, but it is of no benefit to 4D to move early at this low price after this news and at this weak a share price.

Start talking about an out of the blue raise if this smashes through £1 but until then it's not happening.

Seeing as covid revenues could drop significantly later this year it would still be prudent to set guidance at roughly 50% of 2021, however good Jan was...

It's good to set a precedent of hitting targets.

That's very interesting, just seen it on twitter now. That €92m was weighted heavily to January so covid revenues will be starting to decline but it lends favour to the theory that the omicron revenues will be visible in Jan - think we may well be halfway to our 2022 covid revenue target by the end of Q1...