Member Info for HarChris

I can Sang

'Dilution is dilution no matter how you paint it' is the sort of catchy phrase that sounds poignant and meaningful but is actually a crock of shi*

You really believe there are no good and bad guys in war? What, ever? The invader is never more at fault than the invaded in your opinion? All those countries the British Empire violently colonised were just as much at fault? There were no good and bad guys when the Nazis invaded Poland, just propaganda???

Sp now 15% lower than what it closed at on 22nd March, pre RCC data informing us that primary endpoint met early - zero logic to that whichever way you try to swing it.

Kaeren would you mind deconstructing that cryptic sentence?!

Maybe not a Tesla (they are valued over 1 trillion dollars!) but with all the shots on goal there's got to be a decent chance of 4D being bought out at some point in the low billions - if that were to be the case we're talking a 20X'er or more from here...

Many of the companies that'll be keeping an eye on 4D have billions at their disposal for the right acquisition and with the potential for these proprietary drugs to treat all kinds of disease (asthma, parkinson's, cancer) ,with evidence already for Mrx0518's efficacy in conjuction with Keytruda, I think the risk/reward on offer here is monumental.

If they were able to start buying back without informing the market then I'd have happily seen them scoop up a few million at £1.30 a share and reduce the free float but as the share price rises there are much better uses for the cash pile.

We want to see novacyt become a midcap company, to achieve that they are going to need this £100m cash and some.

Well it hasn't exactly set the EKF share price alight has it? In fact it's down about 15% since announcing the share buyback. A small cap diagnostics buying back its own shares appears aimless and ambitionless imo with no vision of how to grow into something much bigger.

What's all the b***ocks about shorters? There are no shorts above the 0.5% threshold, Bronte dropped to 0.44% over two weeks ago so for all we know they might have closed completely by now.

Institutional shorting is low enough to be ignored now.

200k shares is about 0.3% of the company in one single trade - have there been any purchases as big as that since biosynex starting buying?

Great to see such positive price action - Nanopore's resolution result has certainly added to the investment case here and one would there's a high chance of a TR1 landing any day...

Bring on the build up to full year results.

Yeah what Macanman should have said is once we start manufacturing electrolyte it won't matter *quite so much* what the price of vanadium is...

Porky really in other words what we're saying is *technically* a dilutive raise at a low share price is still a slight possibility but it relies on (i) failing to secure the next drawn downs from Oxford Finance, (ii) no licensing deals, (iii) no joint partnerships (iv) no trial grants (v) no data / updates strong enough to push the share price back to at least the last placing price.

If you are someone that's choosing to stay on the sidelines in case of a placing below today's price (39 effing p!) in 2023 then you are banking on every single one of those five factors failing to materialise and no positive news over the next 8 or 9 month period - I think in reality most would like those odds.

Well whether you think it's 'no longer that big a deal' or not doesn't really matter as it's highly unlikely to be the route taken by 4D. The board will not be happy with the share price and a raise now would fail to get across that message.

What would be the point of securing the Oxford Finance loan facility if they weren't to use it at a time like this?

The truth is a lot of these traders on twitter aren't very smart, they genuinely won't be able to differentiate between different companies and their differing circumstances. They really will think it's as simple as cash burn = two quarters cash runway = guaranteed highly dilutive placing at share price lower than today. They will be genuinely be thinking how they've seen and heard it all before and these newbie 4D investors are about to be stung once again.

In this situation you can't convince a stupid person they are wrong - to them the share price proves otherwise. They will only believe it when they see it and so until that point in time all you can do is keeping promoting the investment case in the knowledge that it will cut through to the more intelligent and savvy investors/traders.

If there really was a big threat of a sudden placing at 35p a share it would be important to fight the misinformation but there isn't, alternative financing will be sorted and the share price will soar.

The share price is down here due to a number of factors coming together such as the microbiome sector-wide clinical trial failures (not 4d), broader market uncertainty, risk off re small caps + Oliveira's selling. 4D could easily be sitting at 250p now with those recent results if external influences had been different (market bullish on microbiome stocks, bullish in general and risk on) which highlights the value on offer today.

The market is now focusing on the funds 4D will require rather than recognising the asymmetric upside vs downside of future success - as Soundsrisky has pointed out this will be of no concern to big pharma and will almost certainly make 4D a buyout target now.

No Michael you've completely misread that, we are on the same page. I completely agree with you, 4D is in a great position to benefit from their Oxford Financing loan facility as well as to form joint-venture partnerships and the recent breathtakingly good rns has only strengthened that position...

My post is not there to suggest that 4D will be going down the dilutive placing route but to dispel the myth that one form of funding is unequivocally better than another - it isn't. There may come a time next year where Duncan decides to raise into a strong and performing share price and if he were to choose that route at the time to raise extra cash then great. As long as a management team has options and isn't forced to raise as a last resort then placings are just as legitimate a source of funding than any other.

In recent times placings have become a dirty word but not all placings are created equally. When a company's finances are in a mess and equity raises are required to keep the lights on then yes in those circumstances it will always be deemed as a negative but funding issues are an inevitable reality for small cap pharma stocks, cash burn is an inevitability for a company with this many trials going on... but the reward for success in clinical trials is so great, in areas of medicine where there is few alternatives, that dilution along the way is immaterial. You may have a smaller percentage of the overall pie but that pie will have grown exponentially large.

Trust the management to choose the most advantageous funding route and focus on the data as it's released to the market. The better the data the easier it will be to find willing partners to assist 4d pharma through its journey over the next two to three years.

Porky no need to get stressed out with all the misinformation that certain posters are putting out here - even if they get their entry this will eventually bounce, in the end the data will speak for itself. Early indications are great, we just need a bit more patience share price-wise.

Whilst I also thought the Nanopore share price would react well it's worth noting that they are currently valued at £3.3b so £50m is a drop in the ocean compared to what it would be to us.

£50m as a percentage of Nanopore's mcap is 1.5%, £70m as a percentage of our mcap would be 45%.