Member Info for HarChris

Relating to the acquisition question from earlier... I think we deserve to know what the dispute means for the current M&A strategy - for example do we need to keep a large amount of cash available just in case the unlikely event of us losing the dispute occurs? Is the dispute therefore hindering near term acquisition strategy?

It's amazing how quickly the market forgets good news. Twice we had it with biosynex where the share price shot up following TR1s only for enthusiasm to dissipate and the share price to retrace once the buying seemingly slowed.
At the start of April the share price hit £2.50 a day after the news that the government had paid out £50m to Oxford Nanopore following their dispute.

Let's remember that in our case we have outstanding invoices of £40.8m (excl VAT) from 2021 and £24m from 2020... it must also be taken into account that phase one of the contract was for a minimum value of £150m + 'a further £100m of revenue could be expected for the subsequent 10 weeks'. There was also a second phase which 'could generate considerably more sales than the first phase'

We may well receive a payout not far off today's entire market cap in the not too distant future...

I am fleshing out a question around what sort of potential does he see for novacyt long term and what does he see as our USP. It's interesting to note that diagnostics does tend to be viewed as an exciting and high growth sector. For example a company like EKF has been profitable for some years, most recently making £16m net profit, it has been making acquisitions and expanding and is also sat on a healthy £20m of net cash and yet are only valued at £160m today. There are other examples too.

In other words is there the potential for a diagnostics revolution post covid and if so will novacyt be a part of it.

Please share the groundbreaking news/updates/sales that the CEO is sitting on rather than releasing to the market?

Me too Didi, I just think now is a strange time to start complaining of a lack of communication etc - we were told three months ago that this is when more of the strategy will be communicated. Today we've been informed that they'll also be an investor presentation followed by a Q&A next week so if ever there was a time to reserve judgement it is now.

Our conversation started with you questioning David's supposed marketing prowess and ability and I still say let's defer that discussion at least a few weeks!

We've also had confirmation along the way that our share price is lower than it should be - first from biosynex as they started buying around 175p, then from the CFO as he bought just over £2 and then from the CEO at £2.31 - none of this guarantees future success but it suggests one of our main competitors and the two main men running the company see a rock solid future for the business.

The board were also happy to have the LTIP pegged to a baseline share price of £3.54 and a target around £7.70 within three years to receive their maximum payout.

Exactly Kaeren, good post. Whilst he left us long term shareholders with barely any protection on the 25th Jan he was, at least, pretty transparent about it. He will have known this period will mean nothing in the grand scheme of things and the share price will recover. The share price dropped on that day from about 275p all the way to 160p and then a further push down at the outbreak of the invasion to 130p before it started to recover. I imagine we'll see a continued recovery and build into the results next week, possibly right back to where it was on that update on the 25th Jan.

He is not going to tell us this time we will hear again in three months, this will be the start of his tenure proper and should be a lot better communication going forward. Looking forward to the results, update on strategy and investor presentation.

I don't think so. Guidance is going to be based on how much we still make from covid this year, whether we generate £60m or £40m makes little difference long term. What is key is the imagination and ability David has to drive this company forward so as to be generating hundreds of million a year in 2023, 2024 etc - what is key is the market believing that this is the right board to take the £100m (maybe £150m when the dispute is sorted) and transform this company into a leading global diagnostics midcap.

What I mean is in another six months all the excuses / arguments are gone, we'll know what he's got to offer by then.

Let's hope the results and strategy are good on the 28th but more importantly is the communication and updates going forward after that, not just the 28th.

Conjecture, without a doubt. But it's also wrong to assume that the little we've seen so far is an ominous sign, it isn't. Most likely it's simply the circumstances we find ourselves in. He joined the company with the share price 70% off highs, with a massive war chest, in a period of transition. There was absolutely no benefit to worry about the share price whatsoever and if anything it might benefit the company longer term, to be able to make a clear distinction from before to now - to be able to make his mark rather than just seamless carrying on in the same vein as the last CEO.

In another six months we'll know the answer.

I think you've answered your own question in a way - it hasn't all gone wrong...

What would he have achieved if he had just been marketing the hell out of the company right now? Maybe the share price would be slightly higher but what difference does that make in the long run? Even the likes of biosynex who are generating strong covid revenue and aggressively expanding aren't seeing an increasing share price - the market isn't interested in covid testing anymore.

So instead he's plotting a strategy to take us beyond covid and has kept the company plans in house for the time being - he knows it's much more powerful to use marketing and PR at opportune times rather than attempt to sell the hell out of the business as it is and I suspect we'll get a sense of what he's made of in the coming months.

I mean it's based on how volatile this stock generally is and how sharply it moves in either direction based on improved or worsening sentiment. It wouldn't surprise me at all at least, let's say.

No point pretending this is going to open 10-15% up - hopefully though we'll see a steady build up into next Thursday now though - hoping for >300p this time next week but no one really knows.

Well your chart was looking like a breakout for the past month according to you and it never happened so I wouldn't worry if it's suggesting the opposite now.

BYP please stop with the positive comments, it leaves PI100 all isolated and lonely and alone to tell us that this piece of s*** share is going to 10p.

Phil I think it's fair to say the fundamentals have improved and the landscape has worsened (in terms of biotech bear market). Where does that leave 4d? Well, at least worth the £1.10 a share of yesteryear in my opinion.

Have a look at Australian vanadium - their recent feasibility study showed a cost of about $450m to reach a production output of what Bushveld will be producing this time next year (self-funded).

What do you want to know?
The costs of goods sold right now is about $25/kg. The AISC is ~ $37/kg. Our expected production in 2022 is 4400mtV.
Currently the price of vanadium is far above $25/kg and well above $37/kg so without doubt we will be seeing gross profit and almost certainly we'll also generate a net profit this year - we just don't know how much yet, somewhere in the (wide) range of $15m and $65m.

This will leave us with between around $50m cash by the end of 2022, at which point we should be on a runrate of 5200mtV and be months away from producing electrolyte for vrfbs.

No not you byp.

It's like the two of you are teeing each other up - one asks a stupid question and the other answers it and back and forth you go.

We know all this PI100 and we expect better but we also know we aren't going to hear anything before the full year results so your continual bit***** about it is tiresome.