Member Info for HarChris

Anybody arguing SO's selling is immaterial is wrong, it clearly is the main reason for the share price being as low as it is.

At the very least the next time there's a big rally he will not be there to suppress it thankfully.

No Sangi we were talking about the short term and you said avacta's going to £50m so just wait for 20p - it's okay to be wrong sometimes.

Ps keep up the posting on here Sangi, the bb needs your unparalleled knowledge!

Me and Sangi had a little debate about our track records six weeks ago after I bought in on avacta at an average of 53p (then lowered to 49p) - my logic was they'll be a rally into results that'll allow me to derisk and have a free ride with the other half whilst he was calling £50m mcap... can you give me this one?!

My approach is the same here - there's enough substance to return to a pound a share without the need to endure huge risk and from there those of us that want to can derisk and enjoy watching the story play out on a free ride.

Still confident this will rally in the weeks ahead.

SO is either out or has too few to make a dent in the share price so I do agree at this stage that that excuse is wearing thin.

His selling is of course why the share price is so low in the first place but the reason it's not rising now is the lack of buying pressure. That will surely come with time but it's frustrating to be sat so low without any obvious urgency for anyone to mop up shares in volume down at this price.

I agree with some of your sentiment Alfredh but come to completely different conclusions. As we move through 2022 we are sitting at net asset value therefore receiving a premium for the enormous profits we are about to make of a big fat zero. Literally nothing for the £40m odd net profit we are likely to make, unheard of for a profitable company in a growing sector. You'd think we were producing coal in Russia not a crucial element for the renewable energy revolution!

Whilst sentiment is poor there is a limit to how low a share price falls and in this price environment and we can't be far off that limit. We are therefore in a situation where almost anything better than expected will really jog the market - production coming in higher, a BE update, an Eskom tender win. As Fortune himself has acknowledged the importance of hitting targets from this point forward after missing them in the past there is a very high chance production targets are met and a rather reasonable chance they are far exceeded... now the Garnet case is behind us (and found in our favour) the odds of a BE update landing soon are greater than ever.

Ps you clearly are focusing on Vametco because you know funding is being funnelled into Vanchem and so you can continue down this line of critique. Vanchem is 100% owned by BMN therefore it makes sense to increase its capacity rather than the 74% owned Vametco. When you factor in ownership, guidance for 2022 is 3650 mtV compared with 2955mtV in 2021 - that's a 25% increase based on purposely conservative guidance... in 2023 with kiln 3 in operation for the entirety we'll be producing almost as much from Vanchem alone.

As frustrating as it is right now for the reasons together we've outlined an unparalleled opportunity has now presented itself - I'm sure those who hold their nerve over the coming months will be suitably rewarded.

Ha I just meant after saying I was happy with the share price action it suddenly dropped 5%, recovering a bit now though.

As for the share price who knows but personally I expect at least a small rally prior to results (perhaps topping out around 300p) - if I was trading ncyt I would be looking to scale in soon.

Yeah, I think because they never actually notified via the RNS channel it makes it look like they've gone from 0 (or less than 3%) to 14.89% but in reality they've reduced from 15.5% to 14.89%...

I did perhaps speak too soon about trading sideways until next week!

The point about DP and AS owning 10% of the shares in issue is a very important one as it means whatever funding route they choose will be in the best interest of both them and us - they are not going to heavily dilute themselves unless it's the very best option.

Phil I get that but if we don't respond to those sorts of posts then a) most of the trolls will get bored as they get no kick out of being ignored and b) those posts will quickly disappear under the weight of more informed comments.

Why not? The share price crashed mainly because DA pretty much stated they'd be little news until the full year results in which more of the strategy going forward will be shared - there is now much more expectation of substance from David after six months in the CEO role and with that comes a bit of anticipation for the update.

Add to that Nanopore's resolution and £50m payment from the DHSC and there's reason once again to be a bit more optimistic.

Phil and all the others doing a valiant job of trying to counter the placing misinformation... my advice would be to ignore it as much as possible, there comes a point when it does more harm than good to continually respond. Instead take the real genuine information and research and keep it as visible as possible, such as Sang's excellent summary below:

Micro RX platform with 9 drug candidates in pipeline discovered in 7 years

Extremely strong safety profile of the live biotherapeutics as they are derived from naturally occurring gut bacteria.

Looking more and more likely that 4Ds single strain approach is working on diseases beyond the gut typically targeted by approaches that use multiple strains.

Part B (Phase 2) results from 0518 with Keytruda in kidney cancer patients with no treatment options repeat the success of Part A and offer a strong base to take 0518 into an approval trial.

Blautix ready for P3 and talk of commercial manufacture in a US market conservatively estimated to be worth $2.4bn. Waiting on FDA guidance and strategy update, which could include outlicensing for upfront cash.

Partnerships in place with 2 mega pharmas in MSD and Pfizer and a mid market one Merck Kgaa

Collaborations with top cancer research settings like MD Anderson and Imperial college.

Asthma drug due to be taken into P2 following recent positive results.

Forthcoming trial for Parkinsons with a seat on the science advisory board of Michael J Fox Foundation and partnership with Parkinsons UK. Both collaborations will make patient recruitment a lot easier.

Funding in place until the end of 2022

Incredibly experienced board with heavyweights like Axel Glasmacher and Katrin Rupalla (check out their CVs)

Directors DP and AS own 10% of the company including further investments in the last placing at 110p and Merck own nearly 5%.

Vaccines collaboration with MSD with milestone payments potentially available of up to $1bn

A second generation oncology drug in pre clinical development already recognised for potential to make CAR-T therapies work in solid tumours (holy grail)

Manufacturing capacity in place for commercial production with 7 years worth of accumulated experience and expertise

With 2 partnerships in place with MSD and them owning nearly 5% surely the inevitable will be only a matter of time

I don't live in the past Surfie, I take it day by day. If what I see today signals better times ahead I'm happier than if what I see today signals bad times ahead. I don't set an impossible benchmark in which to compare everything with otherwise I'd be eternally depressed.

What a strange comment from M0neyMan... the one thing novacyt doesn't struggle with is margin. Sure the margin won't be as big as when we sold millions of tests to the government in one fell swoop but on the whole we have better margins than 99% of AIM companies - in fact very few make any profit whatsoever.

As for the share price I'm rather happy with the share price action - if history is anything to go by this rallies into results about two weeks prior which would be from next week. A little more sideways trading then a move north next week is my thinking.

What amazes me is for all this talk of a placing I know many companies that knew a placing was coming down the road for certain and STILL their share price held up much better than 4D's, who almost certainly won't require a placing.

IES is a company I follow and they even stated in their interim update that an equity raise would be needed within six months and still the share price held up enough to raise at the same price as when they made that statement two months before. Numerous examples of this and yet trolls and shorters are focusing their attention on creating fear and panic through misinformation here.

Why not go look elsewhere? There are far more obvious shorting targets that won't require lies and manipulation to bring down the share price.

Nobody raises at 35p a year after raising at £1.10 unless they are absolutely forced to, which does not apply to 4D at this time.

Increasing cash on hand has been Fortune's MO for the past six months or so now, selling down our remaining stake in Invinity and then Afritin. With V so high currently I'd personally have preferred to have seen Primorus paid in cash sending a signal to the market that the board are uber confident of the profits to come but let's hope there's an alternative home for this cash coming down the road.

Maybe the Q1 update later this month will paint a clearer picture.

With that attitude you certainly will lose the lot sooner or later on AIM.

This is basically the same as what was happening pre results except there was an evident reason for it (Oliveira selling).

Now with SO out or down to an immaterial holding plus the RCC data there is no reason for it... still confident that this will snapback sharply at some point soon and will continue to buy where I can at these levels.

Another 11k shares @38p takes me to the 100k mark now.