Member Info for HarChris

The downgraded production last year affected sentiment substantially and it was always going to take time to shake off - it's 9 months to the day since that happened, long enough now to look past it and focus on the stable production and targets all met since. In addition we had litigation hanging over us for all of H2 and most of Q1.

The significant headwinds are finally behind us (so to speak)... we've never been better set up for a big move north.

I like to think the downward pressure is still Steven drop feeding his last 1% as it means we'll see an almighty rise once he's finally out of shares. Sideways movement is fine with me whilst we churn through the last of it!

Kaeren following up with what I was saying earlier about David's £100k buy...

This timeline interests me:
12 Nov 2020 - Holding RNS, CEO Graham Mullis purchases £500k worth of shares. We all expected quite the reaction...

Having closed at 790p the day before it opened @850p and closed @880p. There was then some talk of a 60 day closed period prior to the full year trading update and the SP began to fall a little, dropping to a low of 690p 11 days later, 24 Nov, lower than before the holding RNS... This initial fall seemed baffling to many of us at the time but the SP then picked up and rose steadily into the trading update, culminating in a high of 1210p about 7 weeks later. (What happened after that is irrelevant to the price action following the CEO purchase).

Of course other reasons were also at play but it's an example of how this sort of news can take a week or so to have an effect.

I’m not overly surprised by the recent price action Kaeren. David’s purchase was long awaited and significant, not just a token few thousand to do his bit but a statement of intent, but it also signalled the start of the closed period. Traders will have gambled on that being the last news for a little while and a sizzling out of momentum, but I’m still positive. As long as the share price holds above £2 over the next 5-10 trading days I imagine we’ll see a big heave upwards in the run up to April 25th.

In the meantime you’ve got to think we’ll be hearing from biosynex again soon, right?!

tkr what are people say on twitter about results? Are you referring to biosynex' results and therefore by association ours?

No there is definitely no reason to release results early however good they are, we are still in March. If and it's only an if, results through the first four months are so great as to warrant an upgrading of guidance for 2022, then that will be done on the 25th April. Personally i'm not expecting it and would be very happy to see strong enough figures to meet our current guidance.

To be fair Cluelesshareboy Oxford Nanopore are also cash rich, they have far more cash on hand than we do, about £400m. That isn't through making enormous profits however, it's from a massive, massive IPO that raised over £500m.

The market is valuing Oxford Nanopore at about 8x cash and us at 1.5x cash currently. They're depleting their cash pile by over £100m a year and we are likely increasing ours.

The only explanation for Nanopore's sky high multiple is the potential of their tech - we know novacyt's own strength is their R&D, we know they have pioneering tech and products of their own... if they are able to market their innovations better and start commanding similar multiples then ncyt will easily command a £b+ valuation.

Surprised? It's loss making (a whopping £170m loss in 2021) and generates just £130m revenue yet still has a market cap of £3.3b after the fall!

Whenever BBN signs off twitter for a week or two I always think to myself 'well at least we have WildTiger to keep us informed'

At the very least I think the recent director purchases will put a floor on the share price above £2 giving less incentive for traders to dump in the hope of buying back much lower. Not long to go now for those waiting to see what David is going to bring to the table...

AIM is very predictable when it comes to results - I think we tend to see a similar pattern each time, a rollercoaster from about six weeks away with a strong move north occurring around 7 or 8 trading days before results land.

Maybe it will go down before it goes back up but I fully expect the share price to be sitting higher come mid April.

No novacyt have never released quarterly updates - they did do monthly operational updates at the height of the pandemic between about February 2020 and July 2020 but then fell back into the standard twice yearly updates.

We will very likely get the year to date revenue and current cash figure in the full year results at the end of April.

'we had a trading update on Friday 9th April 2021, is it reasonable to expect one on Friday 8th?'

I bloody hope not considering that update was to inform us that the extension to the DHSC contract had not been extended and that the parties were now in dispute! The revenue figures were given as an afterthought.

It is strange DRB but what I find even more interesting is how this has already happened before.

First TR1 was 15th Feb, second 18th and we all assumed accumulation was on. Then they went quiet and we started doubting their motives before the next Tr1 landed on 11th March which showed they had in fact continued buying quite substantially. And now once again we go nearly three weeks with nothing...

Is this a tactic of theirs? If it is the most they'll be able to accumulate before full year results is about 10%. As you say, strange.

What are you talking about? Buyers are not necessarily going to be waiting for phase 3 results, positive phase 2 results would most likely be enough with a major pharma coming in to take over the rest of the process. And Duncan spoke about funding yesterday, the next phase of the Oxford financing becoming available as milestones have been met.

There will be more data released throughout 2022 hopefully strong enough to push the share price to the £1.50/£2 sort of level and then a placing / raise with sector specific II support would be a good option.

He no longer has to notify, we have no idea if he's been dumping the last 3.6 million shares since Wed/Thurs or if he is going to do it in a couple of big dumps when volume increases again.

I think it's time to move on and forget about SO as a major share price driver, his influence has diminished now.

When you realise Merck are 3000 times the size of 4D and Mx0518 appears to significantly improve patient outcomes when in combination with Merck's biggest selling drug you start to realise how easy it would be for them to buyout 4D for 10, 20, even 30 times today's price.

RRR is being intentionally disruptive and playing dumb - I'd ignore.

I was feeling this way too but it was evident in the interviews with Fortune last year that if he's learnt anything it's not to over promise and under deliver. I have also spoken to a couple in investor relations and they have pretty much confirmed to me that this is the approach Fortune is going with until investor confidence returns, under promise an over deliver big time.

I think widely missed targets will be a thing of the past/

Yes very much agree with that Mikey. Besides an early takeover 4D will need to raise a heck of a lot of money to progress their pipeline, this is a simple fact for small cap pharma stocks. I imagine it will come from numerous sources but placings will be a part of that mix and not something to be afraid of as long as management are smart and raise at opportunistic times, not when the share price is in the doldrums.

No, as of August 8th 2021 BMN no longer hold any shares in Afritin - it's a shame considering the situation, what with Afritin rising 70 odd percent since and BMN making so much profit at current V prices but at the time it would have been sensible to shore up the finances in case FeV didn't behave itself in the months ahead.