Member Info for HarChris

I partially agree with you bluetiger. In the short term it will probably spike closer to £2 a share than £1 but it won't be enough by itself to make novacyt into a midcap company, obviously...

Still, for the longer term success 70 odd million extra in the coffers sure isn't going to hurt novacyt's chances is it? It's a huge derisking event if it happens.

Whichever way you swing it it would be a substantial result for novacyt - a win and payment from the DHSC is not priced in right now, I would say a loss and a partial repayment to the DHSC is what is currently priced in.

The double whammy of payment from the DHSC (anywhere from say £20m to £80m) and the whole saga being behind us would be monumental for novacyt. Again, we have no idea what the outcome will be but today's news gives us reason to believe it might just land in our favour...

It's very much clear that investing in a small cap pharma stock is not for you uxm. That's fair enough, we all have different risk appetites...

I'd take a few breaths and then go and have a look at Tesco or Sainsbury's to invest in.

Seeing as current market cap is about £155m a payment of £80m to novacyt would be one hell of a thing!!!

Well we have outstanding invoices of £40.8 (excl VAT) from 2021 and £24m from 2020...

Including VAT and maybe even interest paid we' be looking at around £80m. Do I necessarily think that will happen? no but it's just become that much more likely.

I took 15000 at 40.8 - if it goes into the 30s I've got room for one more top up.

Painful morning but lots of upside here in the weeks and months to come.

I don't think we can conclude from this that it's a given that we will win the dispute and have tens of millions paid to us BUT... this is big news!

Because they have other options ShearClass - they'll be in discussions with Oxford Finance to release further funds and will then look again at funding in 2023...

It's interesting how in recent times a raise is seen as such a negative. Many companies will announce a raise (at say 10p) and within a few weeks already be trading at 20p, with the funding issue the only thing holding the share price back up until that point.

In normal times the price doesn't drop to the placing price before rising again, it goes up immediately on announcing the placing.

Here we go with the last attempt to drag this down to ~40p before these bottom feeders buy in.

Do tell me how much cash you were expecting to see at this point?

It depends on what you mean by screwed WBAFC? The aim of investing is obviously to make money but if you're someone that dabbles on AIM rather than investing in a FTSE tracker you may be one of the many that actually end up losing money. Let's take the scenario of someone with £50k in novacyt at an average of £5. Currently that £50k is worth about £21k. In a year's time it might be worth £60k or it might be worth £10k, some shares go up and others go down, there are no certainties especially in small cap pharma stocks.

Now if what I said happens and a £4 takeover occurred (I don't think for a second this is very likely, I was simply hypothesising) that same individual who started with £50k, who is now at £22k will walk away with £40k - ideal? no, but better than it's been for the past 12 months. If one is able to throw hundreds of thousands at an AIM small cap stock at a very volatile time I would guess that they will likely survive just fine walking away with a 20% loss here.

Disappointed? Maybe. Screwed? Doubt it.

As we are comparing historic production why don’t we also add share price into the mix, after all we’re looking for value here…

Alfredh compare 2018 group production with 2021 and the share price in early 2019 vs early 2022, as well as the 2022 guidance which you are so disappointed by - let me know your findings, cheers!

Who's to say David would lose out if we got taken over? It would be no less than around £4 a share so he realises 100% profit on his recent £100k purchase and may even be offered to stay on as CEO of novacyt as part of the takeover group, as well as compensation for the potential loss of reward from his LTIP.

If anyone here thinks the worst case scenario is a takeover then you're surely buying as many shares as possible aren't you? After all even if that worst case scenario were to happen you'd make a tidy return on any shares bought today.

Ps thank you for highlighting those historic production levels, it adds a lot of weight to the theory that Fortune is indeed being ultra conservative with this year's 4200-4400mtV guidance now covid-disruption is behind us and the former stability issues have been ironed out.

I can personally see the figure ending up closer to 5000mtV but we'll have to wait and see on that front.

Again nout to do with that Alfredh, it's a case of working out what your motive is. There are loads of facts relating to loads of companies which lead me to choose not to invest in them, I don't waste my days repeating those facts on their BBs for months on end - that would seem a waste of my time.

If that's something you personally get off on then fair enough.

I'm with you Pdub. I've no issue with those who don't have lost faith in the business or believe Fortune's word is no longer worth anything at this point but it's infuriating to have them mince around on here pretending to be invested in the company and merely playing contrarian for the good of all us - their agenda is clear as day.

Nobody with *that* much doubt over where the company is headed would be invested right now, fact.

What difference does it make anyway timeframe-wise? David isn't going to be trading his £100k and there's no payout from the LTIP til the end of 2024 and he can't sell 50% of it until a year after that, so whether or not he's on £120k a year or £300-500K as you suggest there is no benefit to 'pushing the SP faster' right now.

What matters to David is successfully building this company into a well diversified highly profitable diagnostic business capable of generating hundreds of millions of revenue a year without the need of a pandemic - achieve that and the share price will catch up and in three years he can retire a rich man if he so wants.

Sure take my words and turn them into a negative if you want. Fortune has acknowledged it and knows it's absolutely essential going forward that targets are achievable and are met... we can therefore conclude that this is an amazing opportunity given to new investors and those with funds only possible because of past mistakes ( 'management 'overexuberance' if you so wish.) If the market had faith in BMN we would not be sitting here at $60/kg Fev with a market cap of £155m but savvy investing is about the here and now, about the value on offer today, not letting past gloom colour all future decision making.

Of course if one is so negative as to think even Fortune's conservative targets aren't going to be met one would be best to steer clear of an investment here, for the rest of us let the good times (finally) roll.

Here's a challenge for you hindsight traders - why don't you set up a dummy demo account and trade novacyt with £100k paper money and come back and show us your huge profits!

https://www.ig.com/uk/demo-account

Because it's rubbish that's why - it's not a 'traders share, it's not the grand old duke of york. On the whole it's down, 70% in the last year, no one is making money from that...

Some days it goes up, others it goes down, as do all shares. It won't be the same people buying and selling, some sellers will be hoping to get in lower, others will be off buying something else or holding their money in cash. Then as it falls it will come to the attention of others and they will buy. Maybe they'll sell for 10%, maybe they'll become long term holders.

Stop imagining that others are making fortunes at your expense, they aren't. I mean they might be making a lot elsewhere, they might be making *less* of a loss here than you but no trader is good enough to continually scalp profits with this sort of price action.