Member Info for HarChris

A quick question re takeovers... is it a simple majority needed for a takeover to be accepted? For example if biosynex acquired 10% of shares/voting rights would they then need another 41% of the remaining 90% to vote it through?

Are you saying that you think on Monday 7th March, a day in which the share price opened at 140 and closed at 138p, the lowest novacyt has seen since March 2020, biosynex were able to buy 380k shares? And yet somehow that £0.5m of buys was absorbed and the share price finished red?

I'm not questioning your reasoning but it amazes me to think that that was the precise time that so many chose to sell their shares. Of course some will have been trading and hoping to buy back even lower but still, the last time the share price was that low we were a nanocap company that had a novel coronavirus test and had received orders totalling £3.7m... here we are £370m quids worth of tests sold later... !

It's worth remembering that before omicron the UK was virtually back to normal and then omicron quickly changed that. Now that Omicron turned out to be less deadly and the majority catching it were fine this will have crystallised the view for many that covid is no longer a threat to society.

Hopefully we really are over the worst of it now and it becomes no worse than the common cold but if a vaccine evading mutation does present itself at some point in 2022 things could get ugly pretty quickly.

@byp we had already risen 20% from the low of Monday and opened up flat Friday before the TR1 landed (I think I got a notification 5 mins after opening) so I think it’s fair to assume most of Friday’s rise was because of the holding rns rather than just general market upturn.

Otherwise excellent and well thought out post, very much agree with all that.

Almost certainly going to be higher than $35/kg* that was meant to say.

That's true, it's far too early to predict what the average price over the whole year will be but already at this early stage it's almost certainly going to be higher than $30/kg and rather likely to be higher than $45/kg too.

The company of course can leverage the situation and hold off stock to sell into the even higher prices that are likely coming as well as choose the moment in which to sell the large stockpile we have built up.

No I would argue you have your chance to realistically breakeven and you haven't / are not taking it, of course that's fair enough, it's your money and your right but to then listen to you moan about being on such a loss constantly is incredibly grating.

All I ask if if the share price continues rising in the following weeks please try not to punctuate every bit of positivity with 'well I'm still down 40% so not exactly happy' 'still down 30%, very angry' why would I celebrate when I'm down 25%?' , 'well it's alright for you lot but i'm still 10% down!' ... 'okay so now i've broken even, whoop-dee f***** doo'

I'm sure your heart's in the right place Wisha but that's some seriously dumb analysis. $30/kg to $60/kg does not equate to twice as beneficial to BMN, it's many times that.

Simple example taking the cost of goods sold for BMN @ ~$25/kg.
4500 MtV @ $30/kg = $5 x 4500 = $22.5m gross profit
4500 MtV @ $60/kg = $35 x 4500 = $157m gross profit.

Every dollar per kg increase is meaningful to BMN, $20-$30 increase is transformational.

HillSeeker personally I think biosynex will be holding a small short position and using it to keep the share price down whilst they accumulate. In an AIM stock like this with such low volumes and in a news-light period it takes very little to push the share price down and quite a lot to see it rise substantially.

On top of that they benefited from the panic of the markets following the Russian invasion. Novacyt itself did not see all that much of a sell off initially due to being a 'safer' proposition in light of the wider backdrop, but what you'll find in situations like this is as other stocks were hit so much harder, as some crashed and saw 50, 60, 70 percent of their value wiped off, once markets settled again short term thinkers will have hopped over to those stocks to try and time the bounce, piling further downward pressure on us at an already unimaginable low.

As for your last comment re one hell of a storm brewing come April I hear you - there are multiple potential catalysts that could see us rerate from this lowly share price. I've no idea what's going to happen next but I'm sure looking forward to seeing how this all plays out in the next few months...

PI100 by your own admission you got 'caught out by the rampers and bought on a spike' and now believe the company is worth a lot less than what you paid for your shares. You had the opportunity to buy more at a fraction of the price in which you supposedly overpaid, making breakeven and profit much more achievable, but didn't.

Now every time the share price rises are you going to remind us that you are so far down that there's nothing to be happy about? I feel very sorry for those that went all in last year and are now hamstrung and feel unable to do much but hold and wait but the rest of us have been given an almighty and unprecedented opportunity to buy more at, around and even at times well below the cash level of the business. To just sit there and moan about your high percentage loss whilst the rest of
take on risk, put our money where are mouth is and do everything we can to scrape a bit more cash together and lower our averages is, frankly, bloody irritating.

Hostile is maybe a stretch but certainly not in cahoots with the company. Biosynex are a long way off 30%, 5% doesn't yield all that much voting power so novacyt have bags of time to come out with a statement/response and push the share price beyond their reach.

So biosynex did likely choose as late a day as possible and at close of business, giving novacyt no time to file Thursday. Instead they filed just as the market opened today. My guess is they are already past the 6% threshold.

None of us would have believed in a million years that the share price would drop to as low as 131p in just two weeks after it jumped to ~230p following the second TR1, so anything can happen. For that reason only the response was a little muted today.

What this TR1 almost certainly has told me is a) biosynex are putting out their TR1s as late as possible (I reckon they filed as close to COB yesterday or even later) and that novacyt are releasing them to stimulate a share price response... so whatever is going on is likely to be hostile.

Biosynex will be fully aware that they are still able to buy shares at half the price the company felt was fair to set as the baseline for their LTIP. Think about that for a second... A competitor can accumulate at 50% of what the company considered fair value just a few months ago despite absolutely no change in the business fundamentals.

Put it this way, if I was tasked with releasing it at the most opportune, share-price supporting time I would have dropped them exactly as they have been.

This one took a while for everyone to catch on which helped build the momentum this morn.

This threshold was crossed on Monday and since then the share price has been in the 140s and 150s… don’t tell me they didn’t continue buying down there.

ValJu I'll be honest with you, I really don't know but I am hoping to hear something from the company as soon as possible.

What about a certain trader on here that revelled earlier in the week in telling us that he had dumped all his novacyt shares at 133p and would see us all at a pound?

5.54% as early as Monday...

Let's see a nice solid rise to ~ 17p today to match largo's recent rise.