Member Info for HarChris

Apologies. The market's reaction to the situation to the war in Ukraine will soften. With time, even if the war continues, there will be more discernible stock picking rather than widespread sell offs. Those with close links to Russia, those with short term funding needs against a weakening macroeconomic backdrop, those being hit hard by inflation etc may continue to suffer but those that are not seeing a material difference in their business outlook will sharply recover.

PI100 is right, we don't want to hear about your interest in buying back here - only negativity is allowed.

Many are annoyed by what seems like a lack of drive and urgency from DA but they really have to accept that it is what it is, his focus will be on building out the company over the next three years - the LTIP underlined that.

Personally I’m a bit frustrated that after all the hype around biosynex it’s all suddenly gone quiet on that front but I still think, out of the blue, when we least expect it it will all rev up again and the buying will recommence. Maybe tomorrow, maybe next week.

Just a couple of weeks ago the biosynex TR1 landed and almost everyone on this bb got excited, the shares reached a high of about 240p in a matter of days and suddenly it didn’t matter that we hadn’t heard from DA, it was all understandable and a partnership / some sort of distribution deal was clearly going to happen…

Since then Russia has invaded Ukraine, the markets are in turmoil and once again all has gone quiet. As always the mood on here is dictated more by the share price than by what’s happening with the business and now it’s back at the lows everyone is ****ed and some are calling for DA’s head (yes let’s have another CEO and another six months of silence whilst they get their feet under the table!)

It’s now 60% shy of the high reached just a few weeks ago… the situation in Ukraine will calm down and biosynex will most likely continue accumulating. Don’t be the ones kicking yourself as you start buying again at 1.95 when things look positive when you are being offered a slice of the business at cash levels and well below net asset value.

PI100 no they haven’t said anything incorrect and I have no problem with one contributor on the motley fool giving their view, different views make a market. There are thousands of shares out there and obviously most punters aren’t buying novacyt right now so he’s in good company.

I would say the article is light on substance though and I imagine it involved about ten mins of research.

This is AIM, the share price can be anything in the short term and doesn’t reflect what a bidder would actually offer for the company. This is 20% lower than what I was offered for my shares pre biosynex TR1 - now there’s 2.8m less shares in the free float.

Is the price logical? No, but it is what it is for now!

Thanks Kaeren! I have slowly moved virtually all my money to NCYT and BMN, 45% of my portfolio in each. The latter is moving through the gears and the former will in time I'm confident of that.

Covid is still being taken seriously in the majority of the nations of the world and we supply to the world both privately and through the WHO & Unicef. As Kaeren pointed out earlier the revenue generated by the Omicron wave probably won't show up in the December accounts which suggests there's a chance we'll see very strong figures for January and February and maybe as much as 20-25m for the first quarter, reaching half the year's revenue target by April Fools day.

We were informed that as of Dec 31 cash was £103m. We have likely added a good 6-8m and have also been told by the company on numerous occasions that we have strong grounds to assert our contractual rights in reference to the large sums of money up for dispute with the DHSC.

Biosynex has also reduced the free float by at least 2.8m shares and possibly more soon.

And yet I was offered to buy shares at a price valuing the company at £110m? Novacyt is being punished for past mistakes and poor shareholder engagement but this price under these circumstances is a step too far.

Another 10k shares taken to add to my holding just before close.

Great post and happy to be challenged on my comments and on reflection I agree with you although I think it is useful to divert any blame away from DA at this early point in his tenure.

Probably what frustrated me was the failing to hit guidance... we had £100m reiterated numerous times, fairly near to year end, and then testing went through the roof in Nov/Dec so to come in over £4m short was a bit of a head scratcher for me. Let's hope some of the revenue will show up in the January accounts rather than the previous years.

Duferco must be hella strapped for cash if they are selling at the start of a vanadium price spike.

The lowly revenue figure showed that Graham failed in 2021 to make the most of the opportunity presented to them, clearly unable to pivot away successfully from supplying the DHSC... the market recognises this and has punished novacyt severely and now evidently has no faith that they will even break even this year.

It's now down to DA to turn things around and show that this company is capable of strong revenues beyond covid - the bar has been set very low so anything other than failure should see decent returns for shareholders from here.

Well back in mid 2018 there was 1,068,425,966 shares in issue whilst now there is 1,261,969,177 - I make that 18% in about 4 years.

What we also have is an example from 2018 of what can happen when vanadium goes on a run - 1st March 8p, 16th November 49p - and that will make some think twice about settling for 20, 40 or even 60 percent when the possibility in 2022 of seeing 200, 400, or even 600 percent is very real.

BMN is far better placed to benefit from rapidly rising V than it was four years ago... this could be one exciting journey to be on!

Soon it might start to click that actually taking this company through covid times and out the other end isn't going to be easy, it's a challenge even with the enormous windfall. I'm not sure what news you want currently but I can assure you there isn't anything that could be released that would recover the share price to any satisfactory level. Maybe David should start RNS'ing every £300k contract win? That'll excite the market. Maybe he should let us know what sales are month by month? Let us see in real time the decline in covid sales we are likely experiencing...

This is a long term project for DA now, one that is going to take time and is reflected in the three year LTIP. As holders one has to recognise that or sell up, shouting desperately for news is not going to get you anywhere, it won't be heard... I've done the opposite and loaded up at this price in the hope that the top end £7.70 is achieved within three years, a 5X/return of 400% from here. I know it won't happen overnight, maybe it won't happen at all and I'll lose the lot - but that's on me.

One has to be realistic, what has gone before has gone, expectations need to be lowered and timeframes extended... there is nothing David can do right now to bring back the sentiment that got us to £10+ without summoning a vaccine evading mutation on the world, something I hope none of us would like to see. What will get us back to £5+ and put virtually all current holders in profit is a successful strategy that is executed effectively, savvy acquisitions that are integrated into the wider business, leveraging the relationships that have been built over the past few years to generate new revenue streams, holding their ground on the dispute and clawing back some of the money that's owed etc etc all things that will unravel over time, not overnight.

Can 2020 really be used for future prospects though you ask? No of course it can't but it can be used to assess how much value there currently is in the business. The profits made in the two years of covid dwarf the current market cap and so either a) the market expects us to have to give back a huge amount to the DHSC or b) it's expecting us to being loss making this year. Neither of which I think is likely.

It's not about the market being correct, it's about understanding how market dynamics work and choosing the right moment to buy as many shares as possible in wait for a turnaround. Share prices on AIM go up and down in big waves, they don't tread water very often so either sentiment is with you and it soars north or it's against you and dwindles down day after day. So I'm not speaking to the frustrated shareholders who are sitting on a huge average and are refusing to average down, I'm speaking to those on the sidelines who might be wondering if this is the time to take a chance on novacyt, if they really are getting the chance to buy a company well below what the balance sheet will show its worth in April. They are, and unless something ugly occurs such as a huge DHSC loss or some unknown unknown then there are good returns to be had from here.

I think there are some that look at novacyt at £115m mcap and wonder, what with covid testing being wound down, if we're really worth that sort of figure...

Wait novacyt made £132m NET profit in 2020! Yes some of it is currently being contested but that fact alone is quite staggering. 2021 wasn't as strong but again we made healthy profit despite pretty huge investment and having seen tens of millions of revenue unpaid and written off in the accounts.

Usually it's difficult to work out if a company is truly trading below their net asset value but with novacyt it's pretty easy as our net profits in recent years, after all costs, wages, remuneration, r&d etc etc are deducted + paying off all company debt, dwarf the current market cap!

However low sentiment is I don't think a buyout of £210m / £3 a share would be accepted and unless I'm mistaken I don't think there's any footballers with that much cash lying around! Ed Sheeran might be able to if he funnelled every last penny to his name into buying an anglo/french diagnostics company but I highly doubt that he's keen to do that.

In terms of the LTIP I think it's open to interpretation but my own interpretation is that the 2022 and 2023 targets are merely 'symbolic' and what matters is hitting the Dec 2024 target although I could well be wrong on that front.

As for the AGM Wilson that I very much do agree with unless he attracts more IIs on board pre AGM... otherwise yes he is likely to face a bit of a rebellion.

And what theories are those? I am saying quite the opposite, I am saying the job of a CEO is to provide long term shareholder value and for most AIM companies that will require a strong share price in the short term so they really must think both short term and long. This does not apply in our case and backs up my 'theory' that DA won't care what the share price is today, tomorrow or next month, what he will care about is making the right strategic moves to grow the business fundamentally and in time ramp up the communication channels to bring the share price in-line.

The LTIP tells you where the BOD incentives lie, what they are aiming for and what they consider 'success' to look like. There's nothing in it that incentivises the board to quickly ease the turmoil of those sitting on a big loss, there's nothing in it that suggests that there's a plan to turn the share price around in 2022. What success means is this business developing into a ~£300m-£500m business 5 years after the start of the covid pandemic.

You've got to remember that your average AIM CEO needs to be thinking short term as well as long term... they'll be looking at the geopolitical crisis, they are looking at potential impending economic consequences and they are wondering what's going to happen to their share price, if it's possible to raise the amount of money they need for their next stage of expansion or to keep the lights on, if their usual financing facilities are going to be available to them etc

DA has a different set of priorities... he has no funding concerns, he will have his eye on targets and will be wondering if they will cost half the price in the weeks and months ahead, he'll feel comfortable sitting and waiting somewhat to see how the covid situation develops and therefore where best to direct funds, he probably has a lot of work to do to bring down the workforce in line with reducing covid revenues (which would eat into the cash pile), he might be aware of progress on the DHSC dispute and be waiting for extra funds to become available...

There is no share price to support now, it's at rock bottom and unlikely to go much lower. He'll just do what's best for the business long term and nothing less.