Member Info for HarChris

The point is that the Russia situation is causing market wide uncertainty and what happens when uncertainty grips the market is that company's begin to be revalued, investors question if in such an environment a company is worth a premium of 25 times its earnings, whether or not the growth that is predicted in future years will be achieved or if future economic conditions will prevent that happening, whether the debt pile might turn out to cause financing issues further down the road.

What it doesn't do is look at a company like novacyt and then question whether or not it's now worth it's weight in cash, we aren't being valued on some great expectation of future success, we haven't any growth expectations to meet at this pice... if anything the market starts to turn its attention to businesses that can justify their market cap in hard assets and aren't commanding high premiums.

At this price novacyt is a safe haven, invasion or no invasion.

I can assure you that whatever biosynex sees in novacyt, whatever their goal, they aren't bothered by a few percent difference in share price here and there. Granted they might hold off if the share price shoots to £3 but between the cash level and where it is now I doubt it will make much difference - plus novacyt are rather unlikely to crash because of the Russia situation, it's the companies trading at 10, 20, 30 even 50 times their earnings that will drop, not those below NAV already.

I suspect they are already on more than 4% and have probably crossed further thresholds so that wouldn't be an option.

Yeah, succinctly explained a great deal in just a few sentences there Kaeren.

The main reason Whatnonewsyet is because traders/'investors' are incredibly impatient and always think they should be making money 24/7. So yes many will consider this a safe investment and highly unlikely to lose money at this price BUT some other stock has suddenly gained some interest and is 'hot' and off they go chasing after that with the plan to come back here nearer to some inflection point. In reality they'll probably time it wrong but it explains selling at what others might think is an obvious bottom...

I can understand the lack of interest a few weeks ago but now two very important events have happened - the LTIP has been sorted at a baseline price 100% higher than we are at today and the two TR1s showing biosynex buying.

Let others go off chasing... I think things could get interesting here soon.

Why not? They are valued at almost $200b... this is punt money to them.

I'd like to think they'll be unable to keep accumulating without pushing the share price considerably higher...

The binary bet point is valid though and even if successful the path to approval/use was not clear cut.

You were actually wrong on this point byp. Whilst it's true a tiny percentage of drugs make it all the way to market, once a drug has made it through phase 2 there's a fairly high chance of approval, especially in sng's case where the p2 results were so strong.

The success rate for infectious disease from P2 to P3 is above 75%. I sold my SNG for different reasons.
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/11/clinical-trial-success-rates-phase-and-therapeutic-area-14845

Crabtree fluent in french as well as bs!

Yeah we spent many hours chatting away over on that BB didn't we Big. I only really got deep into investing at the start of the pandemic and SNG was the naive risky punt that transformed my portfolio - I briefly moved 100% of my money, 6 figures, into SNG in about Nov/Dec 2020?!

Still many did stick by it all the way through so am feeling bad for them today - hard to see much light at the end of the tunnel there.

There was a time when the risk was worth it for the potential reward i.e a year ago when they were getting their P3 trial up and running and an early successful readout would have made national and even maybe international news.

But now with a completely different covid landscape where vaccines have reduced the need for hospital treatment substantially? Seemed a bad risk profile to me but all the same it must be devastating for some of the long term holders.

The SNG omnishambles will have a slight knock on effect here temporarily but it offers up an even better opportunity for those of us that have held off topping up - 48p is enough for me as a top up / trade.

Yeah they would barely need to buy back any to bolster the share price, the mere mention of it will be enough of a signal to the market.

I'm sure you know what you meant by your figures but I'm going to have to break it to you... a 100% drop means the share price is now worth zero - a 366% fall? God knows what that means!

What do you mean powerless? If there's a plan to release an R&D update they might attempt to get it out sooner to help support the share price? They might even decide to being the strategy update forward...

It's been said many times on here that the company care not an ounce about the short term share price as they have no medium term financing requirements but if there is (and I'm not suggesting there is right now) a threat of a takeover then all of a sudden they will be caring about the short term share price...

This of course assumes no fight from the BOD to prevent them accumulating such a holding on the cheap...

It's an interesting discussion and I certainly agree that if Biosynex continue accumulating the SP will certainly rise significantly from where we are now but the truth remains that Albio have managed to accumulate at least 4% and the share price is still at/below £2. It is very possible they already have 6-7% and could own 10% before the share price is even at £2.50.

A bid of £6 will not be scoffed at.

'£6(£420m) for a company delivering £20-40m EBIDTA and has £100m+ in cash. Give your head a wobble.'

I agree with almost everything you write on here Chris but we are a company that delivered ~£36m EBITDA in the second year of the pandemic, we can't really call ourselves a £20-£40m EBITDA + £100m cash company until it's proven in non pandemic times...

I'm pretty certain the majority of shareholders would bite your hand off for a no risk 3 fold return tomorrow...

Okay that's what I'm missing but still, for a company that went from €153m revenue in 2020 to a whopping €380m in 2021 whilst most other similar companies like us were seeing drop offs in revenue it surprises me that they are trading at such a level.