Member Info for HarChris

II think I was able to sell at 182p before the first TR1 and now it's 176 to sell after two TR1s and the promate CTDA approval.

Certainly makes little sense that's for sure.

Well that sudden out of the blue TR1 from biosynex caused a bit of excitement for the first time in a long time and that inevitably led to a flurry of buying in the hope that it was merely the start of something. We all had the opportunity to sell at 225p or whatever it was but at that stage there was always the chance of these developments getting interesting and the share price ballooning. Admittedly I was tempted to reduce a little but I didn't as I felt there was a strong possibility of it pushing on much further.

You can't have it both ways I'm afraid, you can't hold out in the hope of breakout and rerate whilst also being annoyed if it doesn't happen and the share price falls back.

I made my first purchase a little while ago in the 29s, admittedly a bit of a punt for now but will be doing lots more research and hopefully building a bit of a meaningful stake again with the aim of holding medium term.

Will hopefully be offering some half decent contribution here in the future!

The time to worry and consider one's options was a few months ago, testing was always likely to be wound down once this winter was over... and there was always a chance that we'd drop all the way to cash levels although personally I didn't see it as likely.

It's sit and wait for DA or biosynex to show their hand time.

I should add I appreciate your extensive knowledge of the company

I am not being critical of 4D though am I? If anything I'm doing the opposite, I'm asking questions to figure out why they are what looks like to me, criminally undervalued. So a combination of 0518 being held back, a sector-wide sell off and Oliveira becoming a distressed seller due to the Forte Biosciences crash?

Yes I got lucky, I think my instincts were right to sell but the fall looks grossly exaggerated.

I do have a good chunk of money to invest and much of it is likely to go to 4D, alongside some rare earths and a graphite mining company.

And that's part of the problem right now isn't it? Back when I was invested here all those companies you've listed were flying, biotech in general was looking strong and those in the microbiome sector were seeing particularly high valuations. At the time many were waiting for one of those companies to take the lead and release results that would support and validate the potential of these drugs... and the opposite happened, Seres and others failed trials and the rest slowly got dragged down with it. That's why I sold at the time, in case there was a sector-wide ripple effect... which turned out to be the case.

Did I expect the share price to fall a further 70% after I sold? No way, not without 4D themselves releasing their own poor results. Any reason someone isn't sweeping up the shares down here? Are you not surprised that there isn't a HNW individual / insti willing to take the shares off Oliveira?

Why don’t we look to acquire cash generating businesses with a strong track record rather than a speculative covid play?

Let’s be honest, our revenues were falling even before this news, we really can’t rely on covid revenues going forward, they will likely be just a small percentage of our overall business.

Of course we don’t know what the future holds, there’s every chance we’re going to see new variants that work their way back to the front of the headlines and cause panic and a burst of sales but relying on it is bad risk management.

I imagine from April onwards DA will do all he can to rebrand the company away from ‘covid stock’

I have only just seen your last message and fair enough, let's leave it there. I hope this comes good for you and the many others who have seen such an unjustified depreciation in their investment up until now - I'm sure I'll be back in here soon once the selling stops even if I completely miss the bottom.

We are allowed a difference of opinion, the issue I have is you seem to think you are absolutely correct about everything when in reality small pharma is completely out of favour rather than you making fantastic calls. I happen to agree with you on SNG, I wouldn't buy it to hold even at cash levels of about 10p, it looks dead in the water to me. Avacta I happen to think will see heavy buying in the run up to news around the middle of the year which will allow me to de-risk and have a free ride going forward. I also am at the stage of dipping my toe in here with the plan to hold medium term as there are so many shots on goal and they appear to have no funding issues for some time.

I called you out on TILS for your incessant obsessiveness to trash the share once you had sold which I think is always ugly. Share some thoughts here and there fine but spamming boards with negativity is different. I could have done the same here after selling at just over a pound but I didn't, I felt strongly that SNG had a terribly poor risk/reward profile for about the past six months but who am I to go on there bb and advise them to get out whilst they can? It's arrogant and unwanted.

I'm not discrediting this investment, 4D has an excellent pipeline and the price seems completely detached from reality right now - I was only challenging your brazen self promotion.

Sure you believe in 4D more than the others but that's a given, you're invested here and not there. I still don't get what it's meant to tell us though? It's not as if the one you went for has performed well, basically you chose 4D over the others and have seen a near 80% fall in your investment since this time last year. Had you stuck with AVCT instead the loss would be smaller, if you had stuck with TILS it would be similar and if you had invested in SNG at the top it would have been bigger.

I bought SNG pre phase 2 @ 40p average and sold £1.95 average. I held 4D with an average of £1.05 and sold out at just above £1 (small loss). I messed around with TILS for a few weeks and managed to escape with a very lucky and small profit. I've recently started buying into AVCT and have an average now of 53p so am down on that but not backbreaking. I think that's a better track record than yours to be honest which is basically uniformly bad!

So in other words small pharma/biotech is in the gutter all round, some of which you invested in and some in which you didn't? What are we meant to glean from this?

That wasn't what I asked - my question is are there usually TR1s filed when an entity holding more than the minimum threshold (whether that be 3 or 5 percent) drop below that threshold? You're acting like there isn't but your response suggests there usually is.

Sang I thought they'd have to be a notification if he went below the 5% threshold i.e a TR1 that says he no longer needs to notify the market - am I wrong to think this?

Not sure what you're so wound up about, there has been very little political debate on here recently and certainly nothing to suggest UK/US exceptionalism amongst most on the bb - largely what's been said is in relation to this investment i.e that this conflict is destabilising markets (no question on that front) and debating the extent in which ncyt will be affected & also empathy shown for innocent civilians likely to get caught up in these events.

I'll go with Wednesday too but having crossed the threshold the Wed before (16th).

Big I'm sure most of us are fully aware that this isn't black and white, good vs evil... I'm sure most are aware that Luhansk and Donbas are pro Russian regions with populations that support independence/Russian intervention and that this incursion is not the same as entering Kiev and seizing the capital - still, as Putin uses these regions as political capital and the war rhetoric amplifies lives will be lost and blood will be shed and that, whichever way you swing it, is devastating for the innocent civilians caught up in the middle of it.

I echo Kaeren's sentiments.

Well as Russia make their way into Eastern Ukraine I stand by my theory that novacyt right now is a safe haven for one's cash and we're unlikely to see the share price take a big hit... sure it's possible if biosynex were accumulating that they pause for a day or two to see if there is any fallout and it's possible we retrace a little further and closer to the cash level but when you compare it to the sort of drops many stocks will incur it should be relatively minor.

I'm sure DA is looking at numerous acquisition targets and wondering just how much cheaper they may soon become.