Member Info for HarChris

Don't write off what PI100 is saying, it's true that in the absence of any detail or real forward guidance we are being priced exactly as he recently argued, priced to fail big time., priced to potentially lose big on the DHSC dispute, priced to see covid revenues drop far more than the company has guided... The important thing to note is the reality is likely to be different, it's likely that DA is simply using the freedom he has, what with being fully funded for years to come, to develop a coherent strategy before sharing it with the market in April and beyond. He probably has his eye on an acquisition or two also which won't be known to us until it's been signed on the dotted line. Covid revenues in Jan and Feb could well be as high as last year, what with omicron revenues being realised in 2022, putting us way ahead of the forecast.,

If one truly thinks the company, armed with over £100m in a thriving and growing sector are scratching their heads and have absolutely no idea what to do with it, then consider getting out now! If you're of the opinion like me that we are well placed to become global leaders in POC testing and have many bites at the cherry thanks to the rock solid financials then this truly is an excellent opportunity.

Appreciate that response AB and also the conversation with you and flowerpot, I understand the state of play much better now. Argo remains on my watchlist for now, will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 3/6/9 months.

Is it over the next few months that mining capacity is being significantly ramped up?

If after the December update someone had predicted that in three months BTC would be down a good 10% (average across the month) and Argo would be mining about 35% less coins they'd have told you to stick it - disappointing for a supposed growth stock.

Oops I said the last post was my last, genuinely logging off now and taking a break - have a good weekend all!

The company was facing probable insolvency, it had 5 times more debt than cash and has never made a profit. It now has no debt, no chance of insolvency, no funding issues whatsoever and cash has increased 100 fold. To suggest a ten times increase is therefore about right lacks understanding. In normal times that doesn't happen and if it does the share price rises 1000 fold, not 10.

It's just not true that we have next to nothing to sell. Even with £1.5m cash and £7m debt and low revenues and a history of never making a profit the company still commanded a valuation many times its cash. It will again once DA decides the time is right and projects and injects enthusiasm as a man with his marketing and sales background is more than capable of.

If you look at ODX, you look at GDR, you look at ABDX. They've all fallen enormously since the covid euphoria-induced highs. ODX is down ~95% from its 2020 high, GDR ~93%, ABDX ~ 92%. But these companies have come away with absolutely nothing to show for it. They have raised a lot of money, invested in covid-related products but failed to sell them and win contracts for various reasons (hint one being DHSC related issues we can fully empathise with). Their shareholders hold onto the hope of some overseas contracts being made late in the day but the reality is their falls are justified.

NCYT is 88% below its 2020 high... it's been bunched in with all of them as 'covid stocks' and the sell offs have been largely indiscriminate. Yet none of the above were able to make any money at the start of the pandemic and therefore had to go the placing route (ABDX the IPO route) to generate the funds necessary to develop covid tests. Not only are there significantly more shares in issue now but they then went on to post large losses in 2020, whilst novacyt delivered £167m EBITDA and £132m after tax profit. How many of the approx 1000 companies on AIM posted higher profits than novacyt in 2020? Any guesses? The answer is none, zilch, nada. ASOS was the only one that even came close.

The pandemic raged on but 2021 was no different, the other three in question once again posted sizeable losses, forcing ODX to raise again recently, deeply diluting shareholders and sending the share price crashing. And once again novacyt, ignoring the £40.8m revenue they were owed by the DHSC for goods sold, despite recognising £7m manufacturing costs relating to the disputed revenue AND writing off £29m as an exceptional cost due to the build up DHSC inventory, they STILL posted a healthy profit again in 2021, with the cash position higher than what it was 12 months prior.

This is the last post for me this weekend but whichever way you look at it, however gloomy and pessimistic you may be, the share price is completely divorced from reality right now. It's understandable, this is AIM, shorts will take advantage of long silent periods, we have a new CEO that is taking his time before revealing his hand, there is still a dispute going on in the background, there is a war raging in the foreground. But don't for one minute think this isn't going to change at some point because it will... and the rewards for those who are able to take advantage of this situation and are able to stick it out for the mid-long term could well be enormous.

Will you be back here to tell us you got it wrong if it bounces next week and this turns out to be the low or do we only hear from you again when the price goes where you predicted?

I moved the last bit I had left in cash to novacyt at close of business Friday. Why? Because cash is worth more to me in novacyt than it is in my account right now. The market is pricing in a 'huge' cash burn this year and there's no reason to suggest that will be the case - this is a high margin business with low costs and minimal overheads. They have already funnelled tens of millions towards R&D and growth over the past two years, have made a £10.1m acquisition, have completely wiped out debt and still have more cash in the bank than the company is currently valued at. This is unheard of no matter what some might try to tell you, although covid of course was in itself unprecedented.

One would think there's a catch somewhere but there isn't, it's simply what can happen on AIM when sentiment hits all time lows with a management team that are cautious and showing a seeming lack of urgency. Frustrating yes but also an opportunity for those with spare funds and a little more patience.

Actually most have been aware that it's possible for the market cap to reach cash level briefly, despite considering it unlikely. The argument has been that the downside here is 'relatively' limited from ~180p which I'm sure they still agree with. A 20% fall is nothing compared to the 80-90 percent many have been seeing in the past month...

You make these sorts of claims on all sorts of shares and are generally wrong, although shorters are always going to do a bit better if war breaks out and talk of ww3 grabs the headlines. Either way your prediction turned out to be true, congrats. It's a shame you can't just leave it there, instead using this to add weight to your scaremongering with a new even lower prediction.

Let's assume we never make another penny from covid (highly unlikely hypothesis).
Pre covid - cash £1.5m, debt £7m, market cap £11m
We've wiped off the debt, we've bought IT IS for £10.1m, we've added over £100m to the cash pile, we've built an internationally recognisable brand, we've spent millions on R&D and new products. For all that today the company costs £90m more. Let that sink in. £100m more cash, all debt paid off, millions reinvested and the company is worth £90m more...

Completely illogical and will correct in due course.

Macanman let's not forget $37/kg is the breakeven price which absorbs a hell of a lot of CAPEX in 2022 - EBITDA is made above ~$27/kg I believe.

I did my best to go back all the way to the IPO and compare the share price with the cash in bank - as far as I can see, between 2017 and 2020, the share price never went below 4.5 x cash. It also never posted a profit and had liabilities that often far outweighed that cash, as much as 6:1

Reaching cash is rather unusual and is rather likely to be temporary.

Yes it IS responding LS. After an extended period of trading below NAV we have now seen a 50% rise in a week. We were never going to see an actual rerate but what we need is consistent and constant buying pressure as the price rises. So far so good.

If what you mean is there is a long way to go to, then yes I hear you! This is just the start.

I agree johnny, the LTIP was enough of a signpost of what the company deem a fair share price... you don't set a baseline price of £3.54 if you think the shares are worth a lot less.

Butchers, do you have any experience of share buybacks? At this stage could they start buying back shares before announcing it to the market?

If not then there's no chance of getting any below £2.

Rubbish. They are not bothered about being seen to be doing something, if they were they could comfortably have overpaid on a couple of businesses by now. Instead they are happy in the space they are in, building up the cash pile from the covid revenue and taking their time on the strategic plan beyond covid.

They told us April is when we will be hearing more about those plans, so how on earth can one conclude they are fresh out of ideas? If by July they still haven't shared anything then yes that would be a reasonable conclusion.

Novacyt listed on AIM in late 2017. By mid 2018 they were valued at around £25-£30m and had £3.8m in cash after raising £8.5m from the IPO. They were bringing in about £13m revenue a year but were loss making, so the cashpile was reducing rapidly.

Fast forward 4 years and the company has £102m in cash and growing, has been at the centre of the most serious pandemic in a hundred years, is profit making, has partnerships with the WHO and Unicef, is at the forefront of the POC testing revolution, has a truly global brand, now owns the profitable IT IS, it's debt free, the list goes on and on.

Is it valued 40 times higher now then? No, 30? No. It's valued barely 3 times higher than mid 2018!

Again, just food for thought.

You do not understand what ramping is PI100, you really don't. It's not supporting the share you're invested in, it's not highlighting if the price is below cash levels, it is not predicting medium term returns. It's quite the opposite, it's an attempt to take advantage of hype and hysteria to suck investors in, using hyperbolic language to induce FOMO, giving a much higher price for traders to exit. I'm sure this happened a lot in 2020 when things were good but that is not the case now, unless you think DRB is here to encourage a few buys before selling out at 149p?

Some would argue it's tasteless to talk about being in a 'very, very bad place with this' when the reason for further small falls is a nasty and bloody war in Ukraine.

This is the key point Nigel. Many will be buying in the hope of another 2018 and this going to 50p before the summer is out but long term investors are here because they believe the company has an enormous future which is currently being enormously derisked by the high price of the commodity they are producing and selling.

Whether the share price spikes like 2018 matters little to long term holders, either way we should be handsomely rewarded.

Ahem maybe you needed him/her to say 'I AM BUYING NCYT' to understand but to me 'was going to move my profits into 4d pharma which has also been spanked...but looks now tempting...hmmm' suggests that novacyt is back on his/her radar and is being tempted to buy back in here.