Member Info for GSmiley

We all have our own agenda, but deep research, such as reading the half-year report, will reveal it was not a profit warning. Variations on the theme of "We expect full-year profits for 2023 to be in line with the current market consensus" are repeated from the second sentence onwards.

GLA

GS

:-)

"Note you don't deny that you're actually a paid promoter/poster, Tony"

My experience of Tony's posting here and elsewhere is that his facts are usually accurate and he argues his case clearly.
My experience of your posting is that you don't have any facts and are obsessed with accusing people of being paid posters. Which wastes the time of everyone who is actually interested in a BB share.

So I suggest you contribute or pipe down. And, no, I am not a paid poster, but I do hold shares here and intend to continue to do so.
GLA
GS

Yes
GS

Take over coming (see FUTR sp)
Pension fund deficit gone/hugely reduced (see interest rate rise)
ii taking notice of dividend yield/fcf/absurd p/e (too obvious)
my gigantic buying over the last few months (most likely :-) )
US expansion (not sure if a couple of recent graduates going to the US on secondments are enough to increase the market cap by 9-10% in a day)

Any others?
GLA
GS

@Spike - I suggest you watch the capital budget investor presentation from 9th Jan. You can see it at https://i3.energy/investors/reports-presentations-media/

I think it answers your reservations head on.
GLA
GS

I cannot see how this can be done with NWOR shares. So ii's will wait to see the colour of Montgomery's money. If he can raise the £500m+ needed it will surely be from either private equity or a sovereign/semi sovereign wealth fund. Which will raise questions about foreign ownership of a huge section of the British press...

For pi's the "good" news is that volumes are well up and so is the sp - I bought more in the 60's only a couple of weeks ago - so there is stake building going on. That should be good for the sp irrespective of what happens with NWOR. All imho of course.
GLA
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@Checkin - agreed, but hard to see NWOR pulling this off. Their market cap (£54.5m) is a less than 20% of RCH (£327m). They have a 74 year old executive chairman and an acting finance director appointed 7 weeks ago. Cash at even £1.80 a share is over £500m (I would be thrilled BTW as that is way above my average, although I think RCH is worth more).

But I can't see NWOR raising that on the debt markets, especially in the present interest rate environment. And if it is shares, then why would a shareholder accept?
GLA
GS

They went ex div some time ago so that is not relevant here.

Rather, I might be a bit nervous about their continuing operations in Russia. Highlighted in several papers including Daily Telegraph a couple of days ago. If they (are forced to) stop operations there the effect will be significant. I was a LTH but sold immediately and will only buy back when that is clarified.
GLA
GS

haha - well, that went well... but no worries, because:
"After all, tomorrow is another day."
GS

If my elementary chart reading skills are to be trusted (they are not) then the sp which has been taking a breather and going sideways for about a month looks as if it is starting on the next leg of its upward journey. Singer put a target price of £4.65 out in July, I am expecting that to be hit in the next 2-3 weeks and have bought more accordingly.
GLA
GS

@Stainsby
Welcome and good luck here.
Price predictions are for the birds - you need to make a judgement call between:
GOOD: a funded business in an advertising sector that is/should be hot both because it is subliminal and it allows advertisers to work around the diminishing value of third party cookies. What's not to like?
BAD: What is not to like is that management has overpromised and underdelivered pretty much since the beginning. So this is a share that has been in a long term downtrend (certainly since 2014). In chart terms it looks awful - the sp is below the 50 DMA which is below the 150DMA which is below the 200DMA and volumes are relatively low. That means there is probably a very large overhang of shares in the hands of people who by now just want to get out at something like breakeven. Without stonking good news,, that will take an age to work through and on past performance, bad news is more likely than good.

The only reason I am in is that IF (as in a BIG IF) BIDS actually gets more of the traction it is beginning to achieve then the sky is the limit. The odds on this bet are somewhere between 10 and 100:1 at a guess and, with funding and with some demonstrable progress, those are odds I will take all day long. BUt this is not for widows and orphans...
GLA
GS

@Rednoly - generally tracker funds are not permitted by their own rules to buy outside the index they track. Passive trackers such as Vanguard and HSBC (the 2 biggest) certainly are not. Otherwise, they would be neither passive nor trackers.

Much more likely (imho) the sp is taking a breather after a sensational rise from mid-July. Holders don't want to sell in case it goes higher and buyers don't want to buy in case the sp is about to fall. My guess is that it will track sideways across the channel it has been in since last November. It did something similar for the whole of March and April this year. If history repeats itself the sp will be a great deal higher than today in November.
GLA
GS

@MMA - the sp and the 50 MA are both below the 200 MA this is firmly in the grip of the bears. There will be a lot of investors with shares bought at higher prices than this, who will sell if they get a sniff of break-even (glad to get out). Until that overhang goes the sp won't move up much. And the overhang will probably only start to go AFTER a positive trading update. Until then, if you think that will happen, you take the loss, be patient or average down.
GLA
GS

@pjmcgra - Your maths is wrong. Numbers rounded. Market cap today is 40m. x25 = 1bn
Sp today is 0.2 x 25 is 5p

@ re 1Bn market cap. You won't see a 1Bn market cap in Zimbabwe. For anyone who does not understand how appalling a place it is to do business, just take a look at https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/compare-countries/. Do a comparison in GDP between Australia (actually almost any country including Haiti) and Zimbabwe over the last 20 years to see the catastrophe that has unfolded there. The biggest risk here is that PREM gets stolen. The next biggest is that it has to pay so much in bribes not to get stolen it runs out of cash.

Anyone here for the long term is deluding themselves
GLA
GS

@green - apologies you are quite right. I did my note from memory of the RNS which actually said " to shareholders on the register on 13 August 2021". With T+2 settlement today had to be ex-div.

The silver lining is that I was right!!! The sp went higher ex-div. :-))))))

RCH goes ex div, so theoretically the sp tomorrow should fall by about the value of the dividend. However, volume was very low today - only 700k shares which is the least it has been since 22nd July. And yet the sp went up by about 4x the dividend. Which suggests the stock is in short supply. If Voleon have not closed and/or if the trackers have not bought in yet then it looks as if demand is greater than supply at these levels. In which case the sp is going up. A dividend AND a price rise? That would be very nice.
GLA
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@sm - your second post is correct. The short was reduced to 0.49% at which point it was not declarable any more. So Voleon are short between 0% and 0.49999999% That is probably all we will ever know unless they increase again.
GLA
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@MW
1. The RNS actually does state 3.09%
2. As their holding is only over 3% because of the spread bet, we will find out their exit price as they will be required to notify the company (which must then RNS) any reduction to below 3%.
GLA
GS

@helx, I am sure you won't mind if I filter you from the outset.
@everyone else - At the risk of being stabbed by a falling knife, it is hard to see much downside from here and the sp looks as if it is trying to break out from the awful downward channel it has been in since Feb. I know all the negatives and have bought in despite a concern over the CEO who at best - if I am charitable - has historically overpromised and underdelivered.

However, a new member of the BoD, who has financial expertise, is certainly aware of directors' responsibilities and knows this industry backwards gives me a measure of confidence as does the staggering market opportunity, a spate of deals and the fact BIDS is funded through to at least the end of next year.

I don't have a big holding although I will probably add if the breakout is confirmed.
GLA
GS