Member Info for GSmiley

My Twitter feed tells me that is Simon Thompson in the Investor's Chronicle.
GS

@1GW_
Could not agree more. My only addition would be that in terms of priority, the statement on purpose would usually be taken as written. So:
1. create a public market for our ADSs
2. facilitate greater access to the public equity markets
3. increase our visibility in the marketplace
4. as well as to obtain additional capital

In other words, this is really not about working capital at all - which, with 130m in cash/equivalents, they probably do not need right now.
GLA
GS

As per my last post, we are getting into "dip" territory and I will be adding if the sp falls even a little bit more. Interesting to see that Berenberg restarted XLM coverage. Buy recommendation with a target of 76p.

The RNS today is not the most exciting ever, but it is also classic Stuart Simms. He is a firm believer in underpromising so Iwould expect upward revisions as the year progresses. This is still a multibagger in the making so I am happy to wait/add/wait.
GLA
GS

The silly/obvious/true answer is that they think it is good value for money. They are not famous for short term trading, so their eyes are probably on further horizons than yesterday/tomorrow. They key may be summed up in the following from Shore Capital's note last week " N Brown has much to prove after recent years of disappointment, though if evidence of delivery comes through then notable rating expansion beckons". I think BWNG is setting expectations low. Maybe Schroders do as well.
GLA
GS

@Chri55 - switching from bull to bear as usual I see. Here is the conclusion of the stockopaedia piece you refer to;

"So I see this share as an unimpressive existing business, with terrific turnaround potential. The balance sheet strength & asset backing mean that I feel it’s a safe share to tuck away for a couple of years, and see what happens. Any sign of a convincing turnaround, and the upside could be quite exciting from a £298m existing market cap. Look at what BOO & Asos have achieved, they’re valued in the billions now."

Not a chance. The underlying strategy here is to grow organically and by acquisition (for cash where possible to minimise equity dilution). The day we see a dividend is the day Kape decides there are no further meaningful opportunities for growth out there. That is also probably the day that Mr Sagi sells...
GLA
GS

I have no idea why the sp is creeping up at present, no complaints of course and if it continues we have a good chance of FTSE250 entry at the end of next month.

However, one theory I have is that as fears of inflation grow so does the likelihood of interest rate hikes and that is almost certainly what is driving long gilt yields upwards. Even a tickle at the short end say 0.1%) will be magnified at the long end as it will be regarded as an indication there will be more rises in the pipeline.

Which raises the interesting possibility of pension surpluses but surely means RCH (and others) will be able to get out from under deficits that have acted like millstones. I suspect that janebolacha if still on this BB will know more.

So if you believe the concerns over inflation (I do) then profitable, cash generative businesses paying a well-covered dividend that is expected to increase and with a pension deficit ought to do pretty well over the next couple of years. For me RCH has fitted that bill for quite some time and I suspect others are catching on as well.
GLA
GS

@Farrugia - not sure where you are checking, but the list of trades shown here is never complete. For example I have bought and sold shares on more than one occasion and not seen the transaction. Plus shares are bought and sold through other channels - e.g. direct between institutions and reported after the event. You can see that happening the whole time when you get RNS about significant holdings. An ii can suddenly appear with a 5-10% stake and there was no evidence of that happening in the trades reported here. L2 helps a bit, but it still does not give the whole picture.
GS

All fairly predictable. The results were never going to have wonderful headlines which is why I changed my mind and sold a little while back at 77p. However a pretty unadventurous DCF suggests fair value of better than £1, so I am equally happy that I had a buy order triggered at 64.5p today. This is a decent business with a sensible plan and clever majority shareholders. It probably won't set the world on fire this year, but I think the sp doubling over the next 18 months or so is perfectly achievable.
GLA
GS

All very satisfying. A nice positive update at the AGM and this will carry on I think
GLA
GS

@Tricky - fair enough. I suspect we will see. :-)
GS

@Tricky - "I am not so bullish about the U.S. listing" - I am interested as I suspect you are in a minority. Is that a gut feeling or a view based on analysis/evidence?
GS

It is better to leave deranged posts and posters unanswered. Otherwise, you do their work for them, cluttering this BB with posts no one wants to read. Any pi who cannot recognise such an obvious troll (or a lunatic) should not be investing.
GS

The CEO and CFO have just been awarded about 2m shares under option at nil cost. There is a 1 year vesting period, but as I read the details, after that, for a 100% award, the sp of XLM needs to be over 150p for at least 30 consecutive days sometime in the next three years.

This sort of awards is not made without discussion and negotiation between the remuneration committee and the executives. The latter must believe the targets set to be achievable as there is not much point in staying on otherwise. That is not a guarantee the sp will treble any time soon, but it is a strong indication they think it will.

From their performance so far my guess is that they also think they will do better, sooner. Just another reason, for me at least, to continue to hold long term and to add in the dips.
GLA
GS

Excellent performance. I might have been even happier with more EBITDA, but Revenues, EBITDA and Cash are all up, trading is ahead of expectations and management is confident for the future. Inevitably this will mean upward revision to forecasts and (after some profit-taking) a continued rise in the sp. No mentionof dividend, but we already know the distribution policy is strong so all in all I am a very happy holder.
GLA
GS

Looks a done deal. Here is Finncap's summary (their research note is 20 pages long).

"... However, management has identified an exciting land-grab opportunity in three large but
underexploited regions – mainland Europe, Canada and Australia. We calculate that investing in sales and partner
resources in these regions over the next two years will push earnings back by 18 months but significantly improve the
group’s growth trajectory from FY24, with a huge uplift in profit from FY26. We feel this is an opportunity that simply
cannot be missed, and PCIP is raising £5.5m from equity to enable the project. We lift our TP to 125p to reflect the
materially enhanced prospects post-investment".

I am happy to wait and see this unfold. I believe the upside here is many times greater than the new target price of 125p indicates. My main concern is that so much depends on the CEO.

GLA
GS

@flo - You are welcome.
I think XLM is going to fly this year.
1. There were clear statements yesterday that revenues and profitability are both increasing.
2. That is being driven in part by better management and in part by market growth in the US. Which is set to continue.
3. The sites affected by the Google penalty now account for only 3% (as in three) of revenues.
4. Cenkos said on 27th April "We believe that future returns could eclipse those achieved historically. Buy" They want another data point before issuing a forecast. That won't be far away as the BoD want the sp higher to help with acquisitions.
5. I think there is something interesting lurking in the SBD deal. Yesterday both CEO and CFO talked about having "cleansed" SBD. My understanding is to do that, SBD had to stop earning (as in no revenue generation) for a period of time while it moved from offshore unregulated to onshore regulated. That period is over as SBD is now cleansed (past tense). Part of the payment XLM made in relation to SBD was $500k to cover "overheads". I think that was to cover its running costs when it was not earning between 1st Jan - 24th March. Going forward, XLM will not need to make that contribution so its annualised cash generation increases by $2m. PLUS - SBD was not generating cash in Q1 (its EBITDA was $7m last year) PLUS the prospectus issued in March suggests this number is expected to be low when SBD can leverage XLM's existing licensing in the US.

So I am guessing operating cash generation will be not less than $30-35m this year. Assuming decent execution and continuing US regulation that number could look very low by the end of the year. Still looks dirt cheap to me and I will be disappointed if the sp has not doubled from here by December.
GLA
GS

@Flo - $13.9m @ 31/12/2020
raised $27m+ (per presentation today)
= $40.9m
Initial consideration for SBD (inc. overheads) $11.5m
Balance before cash generation this calendar year = $29.4m
Today's RNS said $38m (approx) at mid-April which must be post acqn since that completed in March.
So (crudely) cash generation is $8-9m in the first 4 months. That suggests a run rate of c$24m p.a and as the US picks up I would expect that to increase. Even if it does not (unlikely) Jan-Apr 2021 has generated as much as the whole of 2020.
GLA
GS

I strongly recommend watching the investor presentation recording from today that will be available at https://www.investormeetcompany.com/ fairly soon (the live event has only just finished). There is more forward-looking information in it than usually happens and you also get a chance to judge the two main managers of the business.
GLA
GS

Each to their own. It is nonsense to complain about "poor results" when the numbers today were better than indicated in the update in January. It is depressing to see that no further sites have had a penalty removed. It is encouraging to see revenues in January were at the level of Jan 20 - pre-covid and effectively pre-penalty given the way revenue is recognised.

XLM still has a pile of cash and looks as if it has bought well recently.

We also clearly have a management team who don't want to overpromise but, to my eyes at least, look as if they know what they are doing and a group of ii's who seem to think the same thing.

The markets XLM operates in are booming, revenues are recovering, the cost base is slimmer and I fully expect this share to go up a very long way from here.

So I am not going anywhere but I wish those leaving all the best elsewhere.
GLA
GS