Member Info for GSmiley

This is from the Cenkos note out today: "As US Sports matures we expect a material increase in EBITDA going into FY22E. This should see the rating of the stocks almost halve to c8x EV/EBITDA. This will leave the stock materially undervalued versus its peers. Buy"

As I read the numbers, eps were 1.7p last year (2020). They will nearly double (f'cast 2.7p + margin improvement of about 10%) in 2021 and they will more than double in 2022. Cash in the bank and inherently cash positive hard to see this not doubling over the next 12 months or so. I will certainly buy more if it dips inot the 40's.
GLA
GS

This has gone up over 300% for me so I sold most of my holding this morning. I have learned from bitter experience that when the sp goes up as sharply as this prior to a results announcement it tends to fall sharply after wards unless the numbers are stellar. And even then - there is usually some profit taking by traders.

I still think the sp will double from here, but I lose nothing in cash terms if it bounces 10% in the next couple of days and I don't lose 10% if it falls by that. Reach is too big an element in my portfolio to risk that. So this is the safe but boring strategy of "be fearful when others are greedy".

I will be back and happy to take any manner of I told you so's if I have to buy back in at £3.60-£3.70...
GLA
GS

Sorry - meant to say that SCSW was tweeting about AC8 today. Doubtless some of their loyal followers will be buying.

I cannot believe the team in place will be happy with a market cap of £1m for very long. Let's hope they let pi's in when they fundraise. Which they will.
GLA
GS

Highlights of RNS:
Revenues increased 66%

Pretty much every contract related metric increased:
New customer contracts went up 95%
ACV from new contracts rose 19%
TACV up by 41%
Plus the customer retention rate was >100% because of upsells

Cash is good at £7.5m

Overall, 2022 numbers look as if they are in the bag so we should expect upgrades moving forward. Glad I added in the low 80's. This is a long term hold for me, with profitability within sight and serious multi-bagging potential.
GLA
GS

Last year there was a t/u on 23rd July. I can't find anything other than that as an indication for this year. Does anyone have a better idea of when our great leader may speak?
Thanks
GS

3 things (and then I'll sign off as this is off the point):
1. The list you published is inaccurate. Northern & Shell (who appear) no longer own any shares and Welcome Trust (who do not appear) own 3.89%. Aberforth dropped from 10.37% to 9.97% on 7th July, so presumably, the 10.06% is either a misprint or quite old. Those are just three where I knew the figures shown were wrong. Looking at the list, I am pretty sure there are a few more.
2. Assuming it has any validity, it makes the point that there are a lot of investors with deep pockets who are below the published FCA level of disclosure which is 3%.

3. Below that you can (as in it is not illegal) to split and disguise shareholdings. Unintentionally, mine are and probably so are yours. I have accounts with II, HL, iWeb, AJBell etc. The shares with each are in omnibus nominee accounts and so appear on the register of shareholders in the name of the nominee (i.e. not in my name).
GS

@green - 2% is not disclosable. So why would you see it anywhere?
GS

I love conspiracy theories, but usually that is all they are. Reach is no more in play than the man in the moon.

The lowest notifiable threshold for a shareholding is 3%.

The total reduction in RCH holdings in the list of declared holding since March 2021 is about 13.75%. Back then the sp was about £2.15 and (I think) all the holders who have reduced were in well before. Except for N&S they are balanced portfolio managers. Andy Brough at Schroders has not stopped being a fan of RCH although he has sold (repeatedly) this year. Nor have Aberforth where RCH is still their largest holding by 50% as it is at Premier Miton in the funds where it is held etc.

So the shares were probably bought by some of the hundreds of conventional, balanced portfolio funds capable of buying 0.1-2.9% of RCH plus unconstrained ii's/pi's capable of taking relatively large positions. It is a drop in the ocean, but since March, my position has doubled in terms of the number of shares held and my investor friends have pretty much all done the same. So put us down for 1-1.5m shares. We are trivial compared to Richard Leonard who manages > £50m I think and has 25% in RCH. And has been buying since March. Even back then when the market cap was about £600m he could not have owned much more than 2%. And of course Luxor has admitted to closing 1%.

What is going on is the normal redistribution of shares that happens when the market cap rises to a point where balanced funds have to divest.

But if a knockout bid comes along who am I to complain. Just not before the update, please.
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Me and my big mouth. About the drift. Let's hope it resumes, but the nasty thing about Balchin's departure is that it is very sudden. He has been there for just under 18 months and is leaving on 2 weeks notice. That almost certainly means there has either been a falling out with Simms or he was not up to the job. Neither is cool.
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I am invested in Supreme. Not a plug, and as with most of the shares I hold, I follow them on social media including Twitter. About an hour ago Supreme tweeted this - https://mobile.twitter.com/SupremePLC/status/1412730038395473921

In it, there is a link to @businesslive which takes you to https://mobile.twitter.com/businesslive - just another bit of RCH...

Looking at the timing of the announcement/FCA notification I would think it quite likely that +/-1% went to Luxor.
GS

@oogle - just read your post.

I doubt it - I think there is a double count as disclosures repeatedly refer to Royde as a parter in and shareholder of Kestrel. if that is the case, then if both held 22% I think Kestrel would be forced to make a takeover bid as connected parties would own over 30% of the whole.
GS

Judging by the upward direction of the sp, and counter to the naysayers, It is beginning to look as if someone somewhere knows something.
GLA
GS

I have researched a bit more. The brands acquired were owned by SCI-MX Nutrition Ltd. Its last filed accounts were for the y/e 29th December 2019. Sales in 2019 were 13.4m down about £1m from 2018. The 2019 accounts were filed at the end of Dec 2020 and contain a note stating that revenues had fallen by over 50% from April 2020 onwards (surprise, surprise). The balance sheet was bust (£11m net liabilities), getting worse and supported only by holding company guarantees.

So I am guessing the brands changed hands for petty cash - the real consideration being the purchase of the inventory by SUP. The branded stock will get sold in Supreme's hands but was probably virtually worthless to SCI-MX Nutrition Ltd which would not have been able to justify continuing trading post-covid.

SCI-MX and PRO2GO had traction pre-covid in gyms where (I think) most of their sales occurred, so they ought to be a great fit with Supreme's existing health brands. Gross margins pre-covid were falling into the low 30%'s but I am sure our CEO will fix that very quickly indeed. So this looks like being a very cheap way of buying +/- £10m sales at what will probably be a 50%+ margin going forward. Not a bad bit of business.
GLA
GS

The Empire grows - I love this business which seems to be going from strength to strength. And I love bolt on acquisitions without dilution. What is a bit strange about the RNS today is it is "opaque" as to how much has been paid and what the acquisition brings to SUP in terms of expected revenues/profit/cash. As £1.3m of stock is not very much, this may not be that big a deal. But it smells like another earnings enhancing deal.
GLA
GS

Don't be disappointed if there is no update until 27th July.

The RCH investor's page at https://www.reachplc.com/financial-reporting?b7a10a37_year%5Bvalue%5D=2021&op=Filter&b7a10a37_widget_id=b7a10a37&form_build_id=form-Z1W9zOU3bzB-TZ9JweNvipMWyXL-8AH1KT3RbYI_gNc&form_id=widget_form_base shows the next two planned information dates as 27/7/21 for the 1/2 year results and 26/11 for a TU (which appeared very recently).

I would have thought that if there were a TU planned for early July that would be on the list as well.
GS

@sahid - me too, which is why I am not on this bb very often. One of those shares to lock away and forget.
GLA
GS

To be precise the FCA updated Luxor's reduction today. Luxor reported it as having happened on 22nd June. It is anyone's guess as to how accurate their reporting is. So the short may be further reduced now, without anyone knowing it. Whichever way one looks at it though, they are closing their position and need to buy a shade under 3m shares to finish the job. In their shoes, I would be scared of the next update so I guess they will try to close out before then.

It feels as if the stars are aligning and I bought more today.
GLA
GS

:-)
No sooner said than... Luxor short reported down by another 0.22% to 0.91 today - see https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0009039941/