Member Info for GSmiley

@man @ear
Thank you both. Appreciated. I suspect we are all hoping for the digital "jump" - preferably followed by the last bit of Luxor's short closing. This is probably the share with the greatest potential in the Smiley family portfolio.
GLA
GS

The RCH site shows the 1/2 year announcement scheduled for 27th July. I have seen mention of an "early July [or maybe sooner]" trading update in a couple of investment magazines but I cannot find any hard evidence that is correct. Can anyone here confirm/deny/shed light, please?
Thanks
GS

Feels as if there is a bit of a tree shake going on. KAPE usually updates at the end of July and I have not seen any suggestion that they performing below expectations. Usually, KAPE updates are ahead of the market and I would think this will be no different. I am already overweight here but added 3,000 more just over an hour ago. Typically shown as a sell...
GLA
GS

40 days is near the end of July.
Q2 ends 30th June
So results around the end of July. As in "I expect a July date"
GS

@SNN - sorry, re-reading my post I omitted a strand. You are correct. What I meant to add was that the SEC requires a quiet period from 4 weeks before the period (usually quarter) end until the publication of the period results. My guess is that TRMR will publish as quickly as they can, so I expect a July date.

However, none of the above stops analysts who are not "insiders" covering a stock and saying whatever they like. And there are plenty of those in the US...

I see that another (3rd) amended F-1 was filed today (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001849396/000119312521192777/d50431df1a.htm). Any idea what the amendment was?
GL
GS

Before the (filtered) troll starts red-flagging the absence of a trading update.

For the next few weeks, the sp in the US will be driven by investor demand. The increase in size of offering (from $100m to $170m) plus extra availability of shares at underwriters discretion, suggests the underwriters think there is demand. If they are correct, then the sp will rise as investors try to buy more shares than are available. I am sure it will be pointed out, but the reverse is equally true.

DYOR, but with IPO's in the US, there is a quiet period that extends from the date the IPO registration paperwork is filed with the SEC - 25th May - until 40 days after the IPO (commencement of trading). So, for example, the MOLN ADS which was priced yesterday will be "quiet" until 26th July. That is why there has been no update and there will not be one until at least 28th July assuming trading starts tomorrow which is rumoured (but I have seen no confirmation). I am rusty on the detail of the rules, but I think this also applies to sell-side analysts at companies involved in the IPO. Happy to be corrected.

GLA
GS

Eckoh released its full-year numbers today (https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ECK/final-results-pdnoexd7gsrppfh.html) which is of interest as it is a direct competitor of PCIP. Almost all the headline numbers for 2021 are down on 2020 in stark contrast to PCIP where everything seems to be going in the right direction. I think that translates into PCIP winning market share.

Comparisons are always a bit dodgy (odious??) but this one is interesting. ECK according to Stockopedia is on a rolling fcast p/e of 42x. I think that p/e is more to do with the market opportunity than ECK's performance. PCIP is still loss-making but so far has not put a foot wrong and has a top line that is growing like topsy and which I expect will turn into profit and cash. So do Finncap who have a target price of 125p. The profit is still years say, but if the multiple on ECK is in any way indicative then PCIP is undervalued several times at present. The SP is 90p which compares well with the 95p placing a month ago (which was oversubscribed).
GLA
GS

Rise today may in part be due to RCH being mentioned at the weekend in the Momentum Investor. Sister letter to SCSW so there is probably leakage between the two. Loads of good stuff in the write-up, but the most eye-catching (I think) is that RCH online has nearly 43m monthly unique visitors which is over 3/4 of the total UK population over 16. If RCH continues to monetise that visitor base then it is undervalued by multiples. TMI draws a comparison line between RCH and FUTR. I still think RCH has a management point to prove, but it has a larger visitor base in the UK and the quality of its titles (imo) is way better than FUTR.

Also not in the price is the cookie war. Actions by Apple and Google are reducing/eliminating the value of third party cookies. Advertisers have a number of strategies to combat that, but (again IMO) the most effective is to use first-party - your own - cookies. RCH has its own cookies embedded with well over 6m over 16's and it will be interesting to see what its subscriber numbers have risen to in the next update as there is "gold in them thar cookies".
GLA
GS

Gracious me. We now have a BB where the principal posters are a lunatic who cannot get his head around the fact that TRMR may be a good investment after all, and a lunatic who cannot understand that a sitting president who calls for his (lunatic) supporters to march on and invade Congress, murdering an officer of the law in the process is not bad for the USA and the world.

GL to the saner posters here. I continue to hold, but can't be bothered to waste my time with this unmitigated rubbish anymore.

Goodbye
GS

RNS out today. Nice little earnings enhancing cash buy at somewhere between 3-4x EBITDA with cross-selling opportunities as well. RNS suggests it will help SUP sell better into the EU. Whether it does that or not, it still looks a sweet deal.
GLA
GS

@Rednosy - are you always such a prat? Or do you have anything useful to add to the discussion here?
GS

1. I doubt there will be a triggered bid post IPO. If you were to buy TRMR you would try and do so before an IPO that is likely to increase the sp.
2. I think you can expect statements of intent/non-intent from the big ii's. Certainly as far as not unloading for a period of time is concerned.
3. A chunk of those treasury shares are likely to be used in the IPO. At least to the extent TRMR wants to raise working capital.

GLA
GS

GS

@QWERTYII - You can see the F1 filing and its accompanying filed preliminary prospectus at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001849396/000119312521171330/d50431df1.htm

This of course has gaps that will only be filled in around the time of listing. Including the number of shares and the amount to be raised which is UP TO $100m (i.e. nor necessarily that much). Someone will put a negative slant on that but the key number is actually the price at IPO. Which we do not yet know.

Another negative slant will be "arbitrage". This exists in the ADS market but it generally relates to high-speed algorithmic trading taking spot currency, dealing costs and share and ADS pricing into account. The arb is then a long short pair based on the belief that ADS/share price differences reduce naturally as a result on market forces. Meaning that anything more than micromargins gets picked up by slower moving investors and equalised. If anyone wants to read more, take a look at https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3052904/1/StockADRPaperLE.pdf although there are other, more recent papers establishing the same thing.

Along with others here, my guess is that we will see a trading update, a price uptick and an announced IPO date.
GS

I have to say I find brokers' forecasts worse than useless at present. This one is a great example. The broker, Bob Liu undermines his own forecasts within the first minute or so of a 7-minute video. His self-demolition includes - the market is good, third party cookie actions by Google et al favour CNIC, online has boomed and is here to stay and Xmas is always the best quarter and is expected to be a bumper in reaction to 2020. But his forecasts remain unchanged. What on earth is the point of a forecast that the author says will be beaten. As in something like "here are my expectations for a company I specialise in, and they are going to be beaten". Rubbish.
GLA
GS

We really need to wait for the prospectus to be certain, but from what has been said so far the AIM listing will continue as is.

In the US, the same shares you can buy and sell here will be available on Nasdaq inside a US$ denominated "wrapper". The effect of that should be to make them more available/accessible/ intelligible to US investors. Hopefully, they will then be able to make clearer comparisons between TRMR and similar US listed businesses. If that happens and as a result the price of TRMR rises in the US (as almost everyone on this board hopes/believes) then the sp in the UK will follow suit. Many companies do this - including the likes of AstraZeneca, BATS, BP, Toyota and Unilever.
GLA
GS

Market cap teetering on the edge of FTSE250 entry. I think the new list is published at the end of this week but is based in market caps at the close of business today... So if anyone fancies buying a few or can persuade the shorts to close, it would be much appreciated. :-))
GLA
GS

So now this BB is exclusively about a troll. Well done everyone. If he is paid, he just got a bonus.

@1GW_
1. Welcome - good to have another sane poster here
2. I see you still do not have an answer to your question about TTM numbers to31.3.2021. Don't be too surprised... trolls never answer questions that undermine their blatherings.
3. SEC guidance on S1/F1 registration statement timetabling is as follows:
"We will review a draft initial Securities Act registration statement and related revisions on a nonpublic basis provided that the issuer confirms in a cover letter to the nonpublic draft submission that it will publicly file its registration statement and nonpublic draft submissions at least 15 days prior to any roadshow or, in the absence of a roadshow, at least 15 days prior to the requested effective date of the registration statement." (full text at https://www.sec.gov/corpfin/announcement/draft-registration-statement-processing-procedures-expanded).

The RNS announcing the filing of form F-1 was timed at 11:17 am and although I have not checked, I doubt the SEC is open at 6:17 am local time. So I guess it was filed on 24th May and the (minimum) 15-day count began then.

However, I would not be surprised to see another update in the interim; we are getting to the point where TRMR should have a pretty good idea of where Q2 might end up so 15 days is just a minimum. I'd certainly hold off for a few days if I could update favourably first.
GL
GS

The large trade was an UT (Uncrossing Trade). It is a bit of a construct as it is a quick way of settling an auction. Stockopedia defines it as "...detailing the total executed volume and uncrossing price as a result of a SETS auction.". In TRMR the UT last night was 3m shares and about the same in VLX.
GS

I doubt it as the Alliance family will have better tax advisers than that. Happy to be corrected if I am wrong but, correctly held, AIM shares are free of IHT.

Private company shares MAY be free of IHT but ONLY because of Business Property Relief which does not apply to cash balances. With nearly £100m in the bank, going private could prove expensive.
GS