Member Info for GSmiley

:-)
Pretty close in 2...
It will be interesting to see how many of the XLM shareholders who have been underwater for some time decide to subscribe for new shares. Selfishly, I am hoping not a lot.
GLA
GS

In its seasonally weakest quarter, Tremor has announced that it is expecting Q1
21 organic net revenue growth of +71-87% to net revenue of $55-60m ($63-68m as
reported), and adjusted EBITDA of $25-28m (Q1 20 $0.5m). The Programmatic
division is driving this remarkably strong performance with expected Q1 21
organic net revenue growth of +84-95%, as the strong H2 20 momentum has
continued into Q1, and Tremor’s platform is capitalising on the structural growth
in digital video and Connected TV advertising. After upgrading our forecasts 4
times since September 2020, we conservatively upgrade our FY21 and FY22
EBITDA +21% and +23% to $82m and $100m, and if Tremor’s Q1 21 momentum
continues through FY21, our forecasts are likely to see substantial upside. We
upgrade our FY21 and FY22 adjusted EPS by 23% and 28%, and upgrade our
FY21 and FY22 net cash to $145m (previously $136m) and $211m (previously
$188m). As Tremor prepares for its proposed US listing in Q2 21, we do not
expect that its current valuation will be sustainable due to market or external
interest. As we highlight from p5 of our 10 March 2021 report, Tremor is trading at
a major discount to its US peers despite experiencing the same 2020 trends,
expecting Q1 21 organic revenue growth of +71-87% that is substantially ahead of
all of its US peers at +13-41%, and having conservative FY21-22 forecasts.
Tremor’s current 12-month forward EV/EBITDA of 12x with NTM EBITDA growth
of +34%, compares to its US peers PubMatic, Magnite, and The Trade Desk, on
12-month forward EV/EBITDA of 41x, 67x, and 88x, with NTM EBITDA growth of
+4%, +33%, and +51%, and Tremor’s 12-month forward EFCF yield of 5%
compares to its US peers on less than 1%. We upgrade our target price to 1,200p
based on 22x FY22 EBITDA, and look forward to further trading updates.

@riff - I think I agree. PCIP's revenue recognition is "proper" in that they are taking sales revenue from contracts into the periods to which that revenue applies. Simplistically, if it is a 2 year contract 50% is recognised in year 1 and 50% in year 2.

As you say, at least some contracts are simply paid for in full upfront. Which is great for cash flow. All is good as long as PCIP can keep contract signs/total contract revenue growing. I like the strategy, and from a shareholder's perspective, it reduces the amount by which I would be diluted otherwise.

The risk is one that has not happened yet (and I hope it doesn't). Large customer is unhappy with service, cancels and asks for money back. That does not hit reported revenue, but it murders the cash position. I have not done the numbers. but I am guessing that PCIP is still at least a couple of years away from the point where IF it received cash on the same basis as it recognises revenue, it would still be cash positive.

I have bagged once and continue to hold for a multibag here, but I would like to see a few more big contract wins before I can relax.
GLA
GS

We had an update on 20th April last year. Does anyone have any better information as to when SYS will be updating this year?
Thanks
GS

@Tricky - further to Radium's reply, I would think it likely the shares will be the same as we all hold. Pretty much all the ADS/ADR's I have looked at represent the company's ordinary shares without any classes specific to geography. As for how many, the prospectus will reveal all. As for the price, I am guessing better than 616p simply because it would be idiotic to raise money at price per share less than the price one is buying them back for in the open market.

As an aside, there is a tremendous amount of conspiracy theorising going on at present - generally based on not a lot of knowledge. Just for now, I am happy we have a management team who have done very well indeed for shareholders over the last couple of years. I suspect their next update will reinforce that. In turn, they are clearly backed up by a group of institutions whose only interest is in performance. They are good at this sort of thing and will not let this turn into a damp squib if they can help it. The announcement of a US IPO was not made without prior discussion with the ii's. If they had not approved, it would not have happened.
GLA
GS

@Bergo - 100% agree - and very happy to see you posting here. Really useful insights.

I know XLM well as I first invested here just after IPO. It was a terrific business with a revenue share bias, throwing off cash at an amazing rate and did really well for me. I just got lucky and decided to sell when Webpals started to reduce their holding. It smelt a bit fishy. I came back in when the sp was less than the tender price during the share buyback (that was so obvious I almost did not believe it) and effectively sold them back to the company. Doh.

Never try to catch a falling knife and the sp carried on falling until we hit Covid. I bought heavily in March 2020 when the markets crashed and took some profit the other day. With an average of below 20p and an sp of 50, why not? I still hold about 400k shares.

Looking forward, this looks a good deal to me and, so far, Simms has been careful in his expectation setting. He and the FD both have good track records and they are making this an increasingly US-centric business. So I am now a committed long-term holder as I think at the very least we will see a succession of upgrades with the sp recovering in line over the next 12 months and there is also more than an outside chance that XLM will look to move its quote to the US. That is not for this year, but if I were the CEO or a major shareholder looking to unlock value, I would get a good recovery/growth story under my belt and then go west. My price targets are around 100p by the end of this year, but if there is any chance of NASDAQ in 18-24 months, then a lot more.

I am always really hesitant about giving advice, but if anyone reading this is still underwater, if I were in your shoes and did not need cash right now, I would be inclined to stay in. You could still end up doing very well. But I never said that.

GLA
GS

XLM always was a leaky boat.

Decent summary. A couple of things to add:
1. Directors are subscribing at the offer price which is always a good sign,
2. there is a brief statement about (relatively) current trading: "2021 has started strongly with unaudited January 2021 revenue for the Group of $5.8 million and EBITDA of $1.4 million." That indicates quite some recovery from last year.

The question now is whether XLM can produce the synergies and growth this deal demands. The update has been moved back to 27th April and we should get more visibility then, but at first sight, I will definitely take up my shares.

Happy holder
GLA
GS

I see Blackrock reduced their short by 0.1% on 16th March. Whichis good news. Total short is now 1.66%.
GS

@SNN - I think he should have consulted a corporate finance expert before writing such a load of drivel.

Let's take a real live example (there are lots of them, feel free to pick and choose. At random, I looked at Smith + Nephew. FTSE100 market cap c£12Bn. Its shares closed at £14.03 in London and its ADS (which is equivalent to two ordinary shares) closed in the US at $39.20. So the single share equivalent is $19.60 which on my currency site converts to £14.10 which is close enough. The same applies to BATS, BP, Unilever, Vodaphone and a bunch of other cowboy outfits seeking to diddle their private investor shareholders.

The point is that there is a necessary equalisation between an ADS in the USA and an ordinary share in the UK or anywhere else. Otherwise, you would get a pricing gradient and all the shares will roll down to where the price is best. Including yours. Anyone who tells you otherwise is talking rubbish.
GS

9 green days out of the last 12 and really enjoying what looks like a good strong rise with an update due in just under a month - on 13th April.

I think we will hear then of a number of good reasons as to why the sp is going up (I have no inside knowledge, but I am beginning to believe this management team is trying very hard to deliver on its promises/plan and has shown signs of succeeding).

For some long-suffering holders here who may still be underwater, at the beginning of March, SCSW commented that XLM was "Possibly a multi-bag in the making...".

GLA
GS

@bald - at the beginning of this month sometime (from memory) gdog said something like - 99% of investors in the US have no idea about AIM.

I have worked in the US, went there often pre-covid and agree 100%.

The point being there is little/no interest from the world's largest investor market in shares on AIM. Put the same company under their noses in the US and it becomes more accessible/understandable and is perceived as safer because it is regulated in the US. It is irrelevant if that regulation is actually any better than in the UK (it probably is not). And it is also dollar denominated which is important in a country where about 50% of the population does not have a passport...

This is the main reason there is a valuation gap between the likes of MAGNI et al on the one hand and TRMR on the other. When TRMR IPOs, the likes of Stifel will be selling it into their ii and retail investors as a US quoted investment and they will be doing so using the likes of MAGNI as a comparable.

Assuming they are successful if the price of TRM on AIM does not increase to (roughly) match the price in the UK then you have a pretty obvious and unsustainable arbitrage opportunity...

You can see the effect of this kind of action with the like of GAN. Which made me a lot of money.

As for TRMR raising money - it clearly does not need to. This is not about raising money, it is about making its stock accessible to US investors.

But, as always, DYOR
GS

This is what I have been banging on about. It is at last realistic to talk about an sp in the 1000p range. It won't happen until the IPO does in Q2, but the valuation gap between TRMR and its US quoted peers will close rapidly around that time and shortly after. Fantastic news, exactly what was wanted and it should make LTH's here a lot of money. Lousy for shorts and trolls of course.

GLA
GS

Trivial compared to the increase in SP you are likely to see when TRMR lists on NASDAQ, but the answer to your question is that your ISA provider, come the time will suggest you complete a Form W-8BEN which will sort the problem for you.
GS

@Rio - you may well be right. My view may be blurred by the fact that I made a lot of money here having originally bought in the 70's. I have taken my cost and 100% profit out and so my remaining holding is running "for free". So I am happy to let it go as in the long run I have little doubt the sp will rise from here. Also, the shorts are underwater at present having mainly come in at around £2-2.10. A half-decent update (...recovering well, ahead of plan... etc etc) and they may feel a squeeze.

As for a move to more formal clothing. I don't think so. More people will work from home long term and they won't be wearing suits when they do.

Happy to hold and watch, but you are right that this one is not for the faint-hearted.

GLA
GS

Published on the SPA site is news up a programmatic upgrade. Salient points (to me) are:
New 1Data Gateway features in this latest release include:

"REST API enhancements, including the ability to access data quality, validation and user statistics through external dashboarding tools such as Esri ArcGIS Dashboards" - I would think, given the position of ESRI in this market, that allowing access through their dashboard must help sales.

and

"Internationalisation of the User Interface (new Spanish option added)" - It shows my ignorance that I had assumed Spanish would already have been there. It is one of the most widely spoken native AND second languages in the world. Its addition simply means SPA products just because more appealing in Central and South America for starters.

The full release is at https://1spatial.com/news-events/2021/1spatial-announce-the-release-of-1datagateway-2-3-0/
GLA
GS

I was in our local McColls the other day, feeding my addiction with a bar of CDM and while standing in the socially distanced queue was interested to see the placement of the 88vape display - I did not notice it last time I was in there. Right at checkout so you have plenty of time to choose while you are queueing. I suspect that is where the high turnover/impulse buy product lines are put. And 1100 outlets can't be bad. Onwards and upwards.
GLA
GS

Let me see, I have gone through my notes, checked a few RNS, re-read several write-ups carefully and have prepared this exclusive synopsis just for you.

Sales have boomed in lockdown, especially in the manufacturing division where the demand for cuddly toys has been at levels not seen since the days of the Smurfs. Publishing has been going great guns as well. The divisional MD, Michael "Jackson" Beano launched the new comic Chumpzz on an innovative subscription basis where the company actually pays its readers. Elsewhere, at the same time as publishing (unaudited) record results for the year ended 29th February 2021 the CEO G. Khan was appointed lifetime executive President and Ruler. Domicile was moved to Mongolia and a new game, Emperor of the Silk Road has been launched to celebrate.

So all is looking good. But, as always, DYOR.
GS

I am not sure what the fuss is about. This is up about 25% since I bought, it has a broker target of 220p and the dividend should be OK. Am I missing something?
GS

@rivaldo - thanks. Not lot new here, but it adds to the noise. FNX has all the hallmarks of a cash cow and I look forward to a combination of capital growth (it has done quite well so far) and a good revenue stream.

GLA
GS

If there is no NASDAQ listing, and the company valuation is not brought closer to other, similar businesses then the acquisition will be TRMR. Don't be surprised if the prospect of a US listing provokes a bid.
GS