Member Info for GSmiley

There was a £60m (before expenses) share issue in December.
GS

Just received this bit of non-news from TRMR investor relations:

"Thank you for your email. Tremor is yet to announce the date of our full year results for 2020.

You can sign-up to receive notifications of the company's regulatory announcements on the London Stock Exchange's website using the following link: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/email-alerts/home/alerts-home.html
Kind regards,
Investor Relations|

So that's clear then.
GS

Yes - that makes sense. As well as appreciating you spending time on this BB I also very much approve of your EMI structure. And you are more than welcome to your incentive shares if I see 100% and 200% in 3 and 5 years. time ... that plus your with your dividend policy and my ISA and SIPP will both look a lot healthier!

The very best of luck
GS

I just dropped in for old lang syne and the fact that for some obscure reason I still have about 100k shares here. That's about 10p worth.

Which I am about to donate to whatever charity it is that ii supports with zero value shares.

Just look at the share chart and compare it with the RNS over the last few years and you will see them for the "terminological inexactitudes" they are.

I saw Prelea in action a very long time ago at a presentation in London in the days of the two Roys (Pitchford and Tucker). The unconsolidated sp was about 1.3-1.5p, I had bagged and was expecting to make a lot more. Prelea made such an impression that I sold the next day.

What has happened over the intervening years has been the legalised criminal annihilation of shareholder value. There may or may not be anything in that thar mine, but if there is I am confident I know whose pocket it will end up in. And that is not anyone's on this BB.

Good luck all - you need a miracle.
GS

@jane - good for you. Great crystall ball.
The bad news is that the numbers are relatively small according to the accounts. In today's RNS, in the note on "Increase in Accounting Pension Deficit" it says.."As part of the decision to close the Luton print plant the Group reached agreement with the Trustees of the WF Scheme to make additional contributions of £5.0m in 2020 (included in the £53.9m of Group contributions) and a further payment of up to £15.0m by the end of June 2021 to enable the Trustees to purchase a bulk annuity policy which would match the remaining liabilities in the scheme in full. In February 2021 a payment of £9.6m was made and the Trustees purchased the bulk annuity policy. No further contributions are expected to the WF Scheme."

It looks as if the "up to £15m" ended up being £9.6m
GS

I love brokers. Jeffreys reduces from Buy to Hold and increases target sp from 198p to 280p.

How does that work? Currently at 273p, if your target was 280p and you had seen the SP rise from 125p 6 months ago, wouldn't you advise selling? Let's face it, there is not a lot more upside. IF your target is 280.

It so happens mine is a lot higher and if there is a dip I will certainly be buying more.
GLA
GS

@velo - you can see my accounts research on this dropbox link as long as I have the tec right - https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/gqc77pvdn9iw0onmrmum0/Supreme-Accounts.xlsx?dl=0&rlkey=71djshdiiuo8ooc2tfgwqj7nr

The link is read-only and valid until Sunday. The spreadsheet has two tabs Financials (all consolidated numbers) and Structure. The top company is Supreme plc. Supreme Imports is a subsidiary.

GLA
GS

There was a good write up about XLM in SCSW this week-end which probably explains the price movement this morning. It is a subscription newsletter and most of its subscribers try to respect copyright for at least a period of time. I already hold a lot of shares here so I will not be adding any more at these levels. With an update due in April I suspect that means that I won't be adding at all as I think (as I always have) the sp will now rise as the effects of google penalty removals, restructuring and integrating acquisitions old and new work their way through into the P&P and Balance Sheet. This is a good, small cap company in a hot sector with an unflashy management team that do what they say and the reward for their effort is within sight.
GLA
GS

I think RCH has done what it says on the tin. Digital growth is set to continue and with nearly 6m registrations it looks as if they will hit their 2022 target by the end of this year. Given interest rates, the increase in the pension deficit is to be expected and as the BoE will want to get rates off the present emergency low as soon as possible, it will decrease again soon enough.

I like my dividend, especially on my average of well under £1 although the share price action this morning is disappointing given how close RCH is to FTSE250 entry. Profit taking took the sp down to 222p at one point but we have recovered a bit and today and tomorrow are not over yet so there is still a good chance. I suspect quite a lot depends on how well our CEO handles the results webcast at 9am today (https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/je4mezki if you are interested)
GLA
GS

:-)
Very satisfying. I have this down as one of my potential multi-baggers. Small market cap, what looks like great positioning and a business that increasingly looks set to take advantage.
Happy holder
GLA
GS

Let's not get too worked up about interest rates. The BoE inflation target is 2% and the current rate is 0.7%. The BoE is not required to explain its actions unless it misses that target by more than 1%. It has already written to the Chancellor explaining why we are below the target inflation rate. Given the above and our economic circumstances AND the terrifying impact on the cost of UK government borrowing if interest rates go up by any meaningful amount, I think the chances of an increase any time soon are minimal. Andy Haldane, by the way, is consistently the most hawkish member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee so his views do not necessarily reflect the majority.

Finally, a number of economic commentators of all persuasions seem to think that there will be an inflation blip as we surge out of lock-down which will then reduce again as the capacity that has developed during lockdown emerges. You can read pretty much the same thing in the Telegraph, Economist and Guardian.
GS

@jane - Can't answer your second question, but https://www.marketwatch.com/story/low-interest-rates-are-compounding-the-big-problems-facing-pension-funds-2019-08-30 is US centric but in it, Millman (an actuarial firm) suggests a change of 8-15% in liabilities for every 1% move in interest rates.

... I simply have to gloat. It is almost always the case that when I write positively about a share the sp crashes. It generally recovers but, in the moment, it is fairly cringe-making.

Well - there I was at 11:28 this morning having just bought a few more at £2.38 and posting about what we needed to get into the FTSE250. And here we are at the close waiting for a UT to see if we have a new 52 week high.

Scene cuts to old man pathetically punching the air. OH YESSSSSS.
GLA
GS

So you don't think the sp would be higher if TRMR was quoted in the US. Really?
GS

@rusty - no wanting to sound like VI, some of the components of TRMR have "history". Plus there is always some suspicion of Israeli companies. So I would think a lot of US money is waiting on the next TU. If it confirms the trend in the last three, then the sp really ought to take off (again) and the valuation gap between TRMR and the likes of Magnite will narrow. But it won't close as much as possible until TRMR is on NASDAQ. You only have to look at GAN to see what happens to the sp when an AIM tech business gets a US listing. That is why I am here. Unless a takeover comes first.
GLA
GS

@PP - Thanks very much
GS

Could you guys please put our resident looney on filter for a while? At least give it a try. Otherwise, this BB becomes, as it was yesterday, a tribute to the effectiveness of a persistent troll. He dominated the discussion. Is there really nothing better to talk about?

We had updates last year in Jan and March. I have looked online but cannot see any indication of when they will update this year (there is a mention in Liberum's research about "next few weeks"). Has anyone got any better information?
Thanks
GS

@maz - Who knows, but I added this morning.

I look at it like this. This is a market that is growing like topsy and the evidence of the last three updates from TRMR suggest they are growing revenues well. Either on the back of general market growth or because they are good at what they do. I don't really care.

What I am interested in is that if you analyse the revenue and adjusted EBITDA numbers in those updates then the marginal EBITDA (the earnings on every extra $ of revenue) is somewhere between 50% and 100%.

Clearly 100% is ridiculous, although the top end of outlook in the most recent update on 8th Jan - compared to the previous update in November 2020 - shows an increase in revenue of $8m and an increase in EBITDA of the same amount... (which is 100%)

What I think is not ridiculous is that TRMR is fantastically profitable when it gets incremental business. A large part of its offering is "just" a self-service tech platform. That means that once it has been developed and commissioned, platform running costs barely change with volume. It is a bit like Google adwords. The customer does the work. Double the throughput and the cost does not double.

So my expectation is that even if the full year numbers are the same as the January outlook, and they should be as any self-respecting CFO will know what the results are in a business like this one with a very few days of the end of the year, the outlook for 2021 will cause an analysts' rerating and an uplift in SP. Factor in the real undervaluation when compared with US peers and I think your £8 is within fairly easy range. My target is a lot higher.
GLA
GS

Agree with the implication that forecasts will be exceeded. Assuming that is the case and that FNX sticks to its dividend policy of 75% of adjusted EPS than I think we can expect a full-year dividend of better than 5.1p
GLA
GS