Member Info for GSmiley

Sorry - did not mean to lecture.

If it helps, another way of looking at it is to understand that there is no difference in the value between a newly created share and one that is released from treasury. When they go into circulation as part of a share offer, option fulfilment etc, each dilutes existing shareholders by exactly the same amount. The fact that one is new and "free" and the other may have cost £6 is irrelevant.

GS

@short_squeeze - In a buyback, cash is being returned by the company to the shareholders. So normal accounting practice is to (shorthand) reflect the reduction in cash because of the buyback with a corresponding reduction in shareholders funds. So there is no asset that appears on the balance sheet as a result of a buyback. The NAV of the company is actually less in balance sheet terms as it no longer has the money.

If the shares are subsequently used - for example in a takeover, then they are brought back into the balance sheet and any difference between the price they were bought at and the value ascribed to them when they came out of treasury is recognised as a profit or loss and added to or deducted from shareholders funds.

GS

One of my best mates was a director of a MM until he retired last year. Not a lot will have changed since then. He always said, when I asked him about "strange" trades that conspiracy theorists ignore the obvious fact that ****-ups happen daily. He also said that MM's talk to one another by email, phone, WhatsApp etc, that they have rules they need to follow and compliance officers to enforce them and that doing anything that even remotely looked liked collusion or joining a concert party risked a swingeing fine or worse. And that even if they did break the rules they would do it in a less obvious way...

GS

Thanks Radium - good spot.
GS

@E21 - Happy to swap fortune telling disaster stories...

Let's hope it is the right sort of M&A. Does anyone think the biggest "risk" right now is a US listed business with a dizzy p/e comes along and buys TRMR at a premium that may make good headlines but in no way reflects the possible SP in 12 months time? I would be underwhelmed by an offer of £8-9 tomorrow. I am greedy, I know.

On the other hand, with cash (and shares) in the bank, the purchase by TRMR of a business where high cost of sale ad revenues can be pushed through its low cost of sale end-to-end technology might make good sense. I have not studied the sector enough to know if such opportunities still exist. Any thoughts/suggestions?

GS

Well, it would make a pleasant change... this certainly is not a "helpline" even though it may look like one.

Yesterday's pull-back was to be expected I think. The rise of the previous few days has been dizzy and a lot of investors will have thought about taking some profits. I can't blame them but, perhaps because I have done well elsewhere, I think I can afford to let this one run. so, I have about 15,000 shares and intend to break all the rules of safe investing and let the lot run with a target sp of £20. That is a number I have just plucked out of thin air and which might be justified by comparison with some of TRMR's peers although one or two are probably overpriced right now.

I filtered a certain person a long time ago as I was bored reading the same embittered revisionist history. He - and I would think it is a he - either lost a packet, panicked, sold and hates what is happening, or is an ex-employee. Irrelevant to me whichever it is as the thing about investing is that it depends on the future, not the past.

The way people live their lives has been changing rapidly for some time. COVID has just accelerated that. People now choose to interact with a screen at times of their choosing so terms such as the "watershed hour" are losing (have lost?) their meaning. Those timeslots used to be advertising targets. I suspect they are becoming less relevant, especially because scheduled news coverage - remember "shall we watch the news?" - is so poor at present. Three generations of my family now find their news away from the BBC/ITV/C4 hub. Friends in Europe and the US say the same.

So for me, the case for targeted advertising is made and TRMR looks as if it has a platform that is at least as good as anyone else's. All it needs is volume, and we will if there is more of that coming through when they (hopefully) talk about it next month. Recent updates have suggested that costs are almost entirely fixed - the EBITDA margin is fantastic.

Management looks as if it knows what it is doing. All I want now is a US listing...

GLA
GS

@beech - Thank you
GS

Good results, without too many surprises. What I liked most was the bit in the outlook for the rest of the year "...with January producing the highest profit month so far in FY21 and the pipeline remains strong, giving us confidence for the remainder of H2 and beyond". If Jan was the best month YTD then there is a good chance of an upward revision to the full-year forecast at some stage.
GLA
GS

Just introducing myself - I bought in just over a week ago (late I know) and wrote a hello note then which I must have failed to post as I cannot find it. I recognise one or two names from other bb's over the years and so look forward to some informed and intelligent comments.

GLA
GS

@BL - the thing is the hope here is that the newsflow re Google continues (resubmission takes time) and that it is backed up with management beginning to talk about some recovery in EBITDA as a result. Given that, then XLM becomes highly cash-generative and they can either buy sensible assets or resume a dividend. On that basis, the sp should go up quite suddenly and steeply. Easy for me to say as I am in the money here having averaged down - as some other here have - but I am staying in the hope of at least a one-bagger from here in the next 6-9 months. Given a positive statement when the results come out, that could happen a lot sooner.

What I am confident about is that the damage inflicted by Google has been fully discounted. ANY recovery from the originally predicted EBITDA hit is therefore good news.
GLA
GS

Not really. Fred Perry and Lyle and Scott are essentially sports wear brands. My kids, who are in their late twenties and early thirties (and sporty) would not be seen dead in either when out socially but all of them wear SDRY. And in terms of non-fashion fundamentals - cash in the bank, good management team, established brand, genius founder back in harness, screaming online sales.

I am definitely in the "I think these are grossly undervalued" brigade.
GLA
GS

And if you decide to subscribe to SCSW (I have done for nearly 20 years with no regrets at all), then there is an introductory £50 off your first year's sub which you can find if you follow them on Twitter.
GS

It certainly looked as if a burst of relatively small sales pushed the sp down only to be followed by larger buys at a deflated price. I was not looking the whole time but saw it happen at least three, maybe four times. So, either the MM's are adding in anticipation of demand post 250 entry, or someone is stake building or Luxor are trying to get out. All are good news for LTH's
GLA
GS

Certainly looked like a shake earlier. Luxor maybe trying to get out? I would prefer them not to as the squeeze should be fiercer if we get into the 250. Either way, I am adding.

GLA
GS

If they are in an ISA you should not have any tax to pay.

Is there any chance that people stop talking about someone who has nothing to say fo any interest at all? It would be a shame to let his ghost ruin this BB
GS

Yawn

Take a look at XLM. Happy to discuss but on that board, not this one.
GS

@Mal - I am not as far ahead as you, but it is still a comfortable 5 figures. The high forward p/e is (of course) reflecting market expectation of future earnings growth and therefore of continued good news flow. If you think that the last three trading updates are both a fair reflection of the company's performance and a likely indicator of its immediate future, then it will look very cheap in 6-9 months time. I do, and that is why I am still adding.

if you don't then top-slicing as a minimum is sensible, but if (like a certain demented poster here) you don't believe what management is telling its shareholders, then why be invested at all? You have made a lot of money here and there is no shame in taking a profit.

GLA
GS

@gdog - I am completely with you. I always make notes before I start buying a share and I re-read them whenever I want to add or sell to remind myself why.

I had never heard of TRMR until I started looking last year for companies that might benefit from the pandemic. It seemed an obvious pick to me in April and I have added along the way (and have done so again today). One of my scribbles from then says "...looks hopelessly undervalued against US peers." and another says "wait for consolidation." Both still look valid to me.

GLA
GS