Member Info for GSmiley

Oh - the joys of averaging down. What an enormously satisfying RNS. With Macquarie holding acceptances for nearly 60% of the ordinary share capital, it looks a done deal. So if the sp is anywhere near 210p today my dosh is off to pastures new...

GLA
GS

Bored in Turkey. So have been digging. My research today has satisfied me that Stockviews exists and has paying clients. It has been lossmaking for the last three years (but only arrived in the UK in Sept 2017 when it was being trialled by 70 institutions). Raised £500k in July 2018. It is solvent as per last accounts. It has a number of shareholders including a few funds. Its registered and trading office addresses are both in Canary Wharf. It is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (Reference number: 763770).

I think they are relatively legit, but are inclined to look for short opportunities. So, for example, take a look at this - https://medium.com/view-from-level-39/are-you-pleased-to-see-me-2948bc3fa07a - written by the author of the FUTR research, James Hull. The article is looking for short opportunities, but the thrust that too much lease finance is a bad thing is perfectly fair.

Based on the above, I am staying out until the dust has well and truly settled.

GLA
GS

Breakout underway? I think we are due an update sometime in the next 4-5 weeks. I would expect to see comment supporting the positive suggestions int he AGM statement at the end of May. If that is the case, then the sp is likely to push onwards and upwards.

GLA
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This should not need saying but the only way to fix this kind of attack is to release an RNS that convincingly dismantles the accusations in the short report. Not only that, but it needs to be done quickly, otherwise there will be accusations that the company's systems are not robust enough. That combination is a tough ask as there is almost invariably at least a small spark under all the smoke.

However, at the time of writing this, there has been no RNS. If there is not a convincing one today, my guess is the sp will collapse completely. Beware falling knives.
GS

Happy to have sold half back in mid-May, half of the balance about 10 days later when the chart was screaming that FUTR was overbought and the rest yesterday when the Stockviews note came out. I have no idea who they are, but a look at their site would suggest the team is not ashamed of being seen/named and that it has a relevant set of skills.

Having done wonderfully well with FUTR, it is time - for me at least - to sit this out and watch because this looks pretty binary. Either Stockviews have some sort of point or they do not. If they do, the bottom will fall out of the sp. If they do not it will recover although it will take a while to get back to £12-13. Those look like poor odds to me - a stake held yesterday am is more likely to halve than double.

GL to those who hold. I hope your courage is rewarded. I shall be back in if/when the dust settles.
GS

The obvious reason is that the shares are in short supply.

The probable reason for that is that KAPE is over 70% owned by UNIKMIND LTD - an Isle of Man Company that according to Motley Fool is 100% owned by Teddy Sagi. Look him up.

However as the shares are liquid I would have thought that Woodford's ownership - none disclosed - would be irrelevant.
But, as always, DYOR
GS

I see that Morgan Stanley now have just over 5% (increased from no disclosure required). So presumably they disagree with you also.
GS

@spacetec - thank you - very much appreciated
GS

I can't, but I still look. If any of you are chartists I would really appreciate your opinion. It looks to me as if we are in the early stages of a price rally. The 200-day MA will flatten out and maybe rise slowly as the higher prices of 9 months ago fall off the end of it, the 20 day MA is showing signs of rising which taken together looks like a cross is forming and Bollingers are constricted which often signifies a sudden change in price. It could be downwards of course, but given the basics, it is hard to see that happening. So upwards? Fast? Anyone?
GS

Of course it gives me comfort - I hold and do so long term. I was merely trying to point out that a statement in SCSW about Miton off-loading post stag was fairly pointless since no one knows at what level they will be comfortable. So the sell off may continue for some time. That's all.
GS

I found this month's SCSW a bit "quirky". Odd write up on ALT and slightly strange on LIT as well. Miton still holds over 13% of LIT as far as I can see and I do not believe they have issued any indication as to what percentage they think their "permanent" shareholding should be. Second - let's assume SCSW is correct and the sp will take off, then why would Miton (who are not afraid of taking large positions) want to sell?

Don't get me wrong. I hold shares here - half my SIPP follows SCSW Portfolio 3 exactly (and followed Portfolio 2 before that) - so I am relaxed about the future for LIT, but I do think that the vertical take-off may be further away than the article suggests.
GLA
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As I read the most recent RNS's recurring income this year is already $33.5m - up from approx $26m last year and presumably will increase as more customers come through the initial loss-making customer acquisition stage. With customer acquisition accelerating as reported my back of the envelope says recurring revenues next year will be in excess of £50m. Recurring revenues are more valuable than one time revenues and yet the sp is down about 40% from the peak last year. I believe the story, think this is way oversold and have added more today. We are due a trading update in July which ought to push the sp along (I hope).
GLA
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DIA was added to the SCSW portfolio at the week-end. Oh - and I bought back in on Friday when it became apparent Trump would drop his Mexican tariff threat. Maybe that did it :-)
GLA
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Slightly downbeat write up in SCSW at the w/e. Like some, he is miffed at the KPI re platform sign-ups being dropped and he is unimpressed with what he calls commission for advertising suppliers to the members of AIM.

That is probably responsible for the drop today which on a purely selfish note suits me fine as I took spreadbet profits on Friday intending to open new contracts after 16th June.

I also fundamentally disagree with SCSW's downbeat article and analysis. Sure, $2m a week in April is a run rate of $100m p.a. but the trajectory of throughput of AIM purchases went from $1m p.w to $2m p.w in just one month (and it was just under $400k p.w. in the prior year). That suggests to me that the run rate is increasing very fast indeed and that sales for the 12 months from May will be hugely in excess of $100m.

Each to their own.

GLA
GS

Indirectly some of this may be my fault. I had a Dec 2018-June 2019 £400 a point bet on ALT (which would be closed on 16th). Since I took it out at 79p and was sitting on a very nice profit, I thought discretion was the better part etc and closed today in three tranches. That equates to 40k shares. 15, 15 and 10k. Apologies if it was me. I still hold about 20k in SIPP and ISA and will probably open another spreadbet when the new contracts are available after 16th June. I think this has a long way to go yet.

GLA
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"not sure what it will take...".
Just give it time. If KAPE keeps on doing what it is doing, the sp will fix itself.
GLA
GS

iWTO - Interesting.

I concede the share buyback which should improve things somewhere by something up to 10%.

Not sure about the tax effect of lower profits as I have no idea how the impairment in 2018 affected tax payable then. If it was tax allowable then tax payable in 2019 may well be higher albeit on lower PBT. That would make things worse in terms of yield. Unfortunately, the tax comp is not in the public domain.

Where I disagree with you is about the impairment. The RNS of 26th Feb said:
"The Board remains committed to maintaining a progressive dividend policy and seeks to continue to pay out at least 50 per cent net profit by way of dividend (adjusted for non-cash impairment). The Board remains committed to the share buyback announced December 2018." The non-cash adjustment they refer to has the effect of INCREASING the net profit for dividend purposes. Which is why the dividend at 7c/$14m was as high as it was.

So I still stick at - approximately :-) - a reduction in profit of c$6m divided by c200m shares. There may be consequent cost reductions, but in the first year, things like redundancy costs tend to balance those out.

Of course, I hope I am wrong, but even if I am right the yield will still be very good (6-7%), the story becomes more believable and so we ought to begin to see a re-rate.
GLA
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Careful. It is the dividend policy that is unaffected being. "at least 50 per cent net profit by way of dividend (adjusted for non-cash impairment)."
EBIT is set to be drop by $6-7m in 2019 less any reduction in costs (not discussed in any recent RNS) and any improvement in Publishing, which is still facing "headwinds". I think that translates into a dividend reduction of up to 3c per share in 2019 with recovery after that as Publishing progresses.
GLA
GS

I think DIA has manufacturing in Mexico. Assuming Trump's tariff increases come to pass I imagine they will have a negative effect on sales. Will buy back when the dust settles as I think this is beginning to look well managed.
GLA
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Doh - sorry - found it. SCSW/Finncap in Dec 2018.
I have not looked at this hard yet, but I think that number has been overtaken by events. Finncap's latest update (28/5/2019) shows 2019 and 2020 full year estimates as follows (figures in £m):
Revenue £18.5 (2020 £35.2)
Adj EDITDA £6.5 (2020 £13.3)
PBT £5.9 (2020 £12.7)

P/E 15.8 (2020 7.5)
And for those especially interested in free cash -
Free Cash Yield 3.5% (2020 12%)

GLA
GS