Member Info for GSmiley

Very satisfying day in all sorts of ways. Let's hope we see many more.

@Burningspear - are you able to elaborate on where you get b/e revenues of $150m pa. from? I must have missed/forgotten it. Thanks.

GS

The market does not trust XLM at present:
1. There has been a change of emphasis in the strategy (Publishing vs Media)
2. There was a very successful placing (as in fully priced) followed by a profit warning. Guaranteed to upset almost everyone who subscribed.
3. Share buy backs often suggest a company has run out of ideas on how best to invest their money.
4. This company is Israeli at heart and there have been a number scandals in recent years involving Israeli companies and managers.

I don't see any short term surge in sp. This is a case of waiting for the management to deliver on their strategy to the point where the investment case is irresistible to a couple of fund managers - most likely income funds. 10% is very hard to resist if you think it is for real. There is a trading update due in the next few weeks and the interims should come out in September. If all is on track, those will help but I am not expecting real action until next year.

GLA
GS

afraid I missed the bottom of the dip today but bought some more at 98p.

As for Nickelinv - there is never much point in paying attention to people who consistently naysay a share. They are clearly either short or trolls. Either way, your perspective is completely different. They have nothing to say to you and it is probably best to say nothing to them.

But the nice recovery suggests that some people think there is more to share valuation than just looking at net assets. Warren Buffet springs to mind.

GLA
GS

@rax
Treasury stock can be sold on the open market, it can be cancelled ("retired") or it can be used in shared based transactions such as a takeover where all or part of the consideration is in shares or (last use I think) they can be used to satisfy the exercise of share options.
GS

For those who have not gone through the most recent RNS with a toothcomb, I really recommend a read. There are a couple of really interesting nuggets buried down the page in Nicole Stella review. Just as a taster, here is one:

"Nevertheless, sales order throughput totalling more than $31.0m, from over 400 members was captured in the first 5 months of 2019...". Feel free to check, but in November 2018 the corresponding number was 240. An increase of 66.6% in 6 months. Oh - and there are another 1600+ AIM members to go at.

I leave you all to do your sums regarding average order values/spends through the system, but it looks to me as if the "machine" is both working smoothly and accelerating. Added more near yesterday's lows.
GLA
GS

this morning. I must be missing something, but this simply looks like a no brainer. The yield is sensational, the company is meeting its targets, it is generating cash and buying back. As long as it can persuade the wider market that concentrating on publishing makes sense and will lead to rising profits it has multi-bagger written all over it.
GLA
GS

@CM
You are quite right and my apologies. It was a busy day and I did not see the RNS's in time.

GS

Obviously. What you probably won't see - assuming the two transactions were with different parties - is who bought. Someone did.
GS

All pretty pointless speculation. Unless there is a major holdings RNS we will never know. However in all probability they would have been either someone who borrowed stock closing and reopening or a buy and sell between institutions. The extra 500k would have been either in increase or decrease in an open position or was a split with a sell to someone else going unnoticed.

GS

You posted previously and were answered previously. A shortage of shares in a market where there is demand is a good thing if you want the price to rise. That is basic economics.

If that is not what you are worried about, please be more specific.

GS

We already knew there was a settlement in NSW, but confirmation that it is binding is good as well as the statement in the RNS "LCM's entitlement set to contribute significantly to profit for the current financial year to 30 June 2019". The key word being "significantly".

While this is always going to be a bit of a lumpy business the pace of cases being taken on the portfolio and being litigated is increasing quite quickly and the individual outcomes seem to be substantially positive. So this looks like a well run business in a growing market that has no dependence on Brexit and may well benefit from US/China trade wars. LCM is beginning to smell like a multi-bagger to me and I shall be adding more going forward.

GLA
GS

Fairly typical market reaction. When the dust settles I will be buying more.

GS

Despite the naysayers - who presumably are short and want the sp to fall, this is a very strong update indeed. Even they would see that if they actually read the RNS a little more carefully.

Building a business takes time and anyone who actually reads the RNS can see that AIM is now flying. For example:
"sales order throughput totalling more than $31.0m, from over 400 members was captured in the first 5 months of 2019, with the weekly average rising from $1.0m per week in March to over $2.0m per week in April (2018 full year sales order throughput totalled $19.9m, averaging $383k per week). We anticipate the weekly average sales order throughput to continue to rise as we capture more data in the coming months."

Given what ALT says about expecting "sales order throughput to continue to rise" that translates into the WHOLE of last year's order throughput more than doubling in the first half of this year. As ALT makes something on every order, that is a stonking performance. No wonder the management team is excited. So am I.

GLA LTH's
GS

Excellent growth across the board announced today:

"Revenues up 61% to £36.6 million (H1 2018: £22.7 million)
Underlying* EBITDA up 74% to £7.7million (H1 2018: £4.4 million)
Underlying* EBITDA margin increased to 21.0% (H1 2018: 19.5%)
Profit after tax up 80% to £4.5 million (H1 2018: £2.5 million)
Statutory Earnings per share up 56% to 10.71 pence (H1 2018: 6.85 pence)
Underlying* Earnings per share up 49% to 14.87 pence (H1 2018: 9.98 pence)
Funds under Management of £5.4bn, up 68% (H1 2018: £3.2bn)

Really as good as it gets.
GLA
GS

Nothing will happen until the market believes to XML story. 10% dividend yields are usually the precursor to poor results/drop in share price/dividend cut or some such. Put it another way, no quality company with a long life ahead of it and plans for the future yields 10%.

So either XML is a basket case and the dividend will be slashed (which is not what has been indicated in RNS so far) or the market has misread the value of the business. If the latter is the case, given the fundraising stitch up in January 2018 it will take a couple more updates of progress before we start to see a revaluation.

I am long and have been buying in pretty much since the price tanked in 2018. I was a holder previously but took profits so my holding had a zero cost when they raised money in Jan 18 as I could not understand what they wanted it for. Should have sold the lot but that's life.

As an aside, from my perspective, the share buyback using the cash raised last year at between 3-4x the buyback price is delicious

So I subscribe to the view that the market has the value wrong, that the dividend will (probably) be maintained and that the plan OW outlined in his last couple of presentations makes sense.

Assuming the above, I can see no reason why the sp should not recover over the next 12-18 months to something north of 100p and if there is a rerate based on the quality of earnings rather than simply the dividend yield then 150-200p is perfectly possible. But don't expect it tomorrow.

In the meantime, I am only too happy earning 10%.

GLA
GS

17% - even better.

I forgot to say that SCSW is published on 8th June. As ALT is in its Portfolio 3 and it has not commented since February, expect a write up in 2 weeks as well which - assuming good results - usually helps the sp along a bit.

GLA
GS

Up 10% since 14th May and I think there is still more in the tank before the results due on 28th May. That is this Tuesday.

In addition, if ALT follows similar timescales to previous years, there will be an AGM statement in mid-late June.

I think there is every possibility that Tuesday will be very bullish and in about 4 four weeks the update will be even more so. Finncap has eps more than doubling to 15.5p this year and so I am looking for quite a bit more on the sp by the end of June.
GLA
GS

long term holder

Close to a 52 week low.

Either way, added more today. I would expect the 1/2 year numbers due out next month to be very good given that aspirational targets were set in the AGM statement. Silly to do that unless you are pretty sure you have at least started the new year going in the right direction.

I picked my first block up in Feb after a big write up in SCSW which concluded with "the shares are lowly rated and there is scope for profits to double in the years to come. With growth delivered with metronomic reliability, AFH really is as good as it gets. Buy"

GLS
GS

I bought these in the December "crash" - they had been on my list for some time and I have since - including today.

Execution here is everything - and they seem to have a very smart management team. I would expect a continuing sharp rise in the numbers as they have already invested heavily in people and the benefits of that should come through this year and next. Along with the promise of a progressive dividend policy, I would expect AFX to fly over the next 24 months or so. Definitely a long term hold for me.
GLA
GS