RE: Shorts1 Feb 2017 07:39
@ Wolf.
Your level of confidence in PAYS full year results would not have been significantly different a few days before the short attack. Say you took out a Sept 17 buy contract at about 367-368p. Let's say you went in at £500 a point. Looked like the sp was recovering. It was. And then the shorts hit. When the sp was down over 100p from your entry and with you facing a margin call of over £50k - which you did not have in cash - you either baled or sold elsewhere to meet the call. Your certainty will probably be proved right (barring accounting errors - which happen BTW) but you still lost heavily.
An extreme example, but anyone who says that they can predict with a high degree of certainty AND timing (which you imply) is riding for a fall. This is why the best fund managers (just look at Woodford and UTW or CPI) with better brains, information and tools than you or I, make huge mistakes. You, for example have been predicting with a high level of confidence that PAYS will do something in the M&A arena. I am sure they will one day, but so far you have been wrong.
Here is another. I don't usually trawl back through posts, but I remembered roughly when it happened and I am on holiday and relaxing by the pool. These are your words on 6th October - when AEK's short had reached 3.01%
"- hard to say what AEK logic is/was - clearly flawed though - losses are probably in the £10+mn mark - ouch !!!!. It does seem to have classic "double down" gambler traits - it looks to me that as sp continued to rise AEK increased the short to try and turn the tide - finger in the dyke stuff..denial as to making a mistake on initial trade."
Ouch - "clearly flawed"?. The sp was about 450 then.
GS
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