Member Info for GSmiley

The FCA spreadsheet has PEP down to 1.26% with the overall short position at 4.47%. High, but a lot better than 7%+ GS

This has been on my watch list for months now. I set what I thought was a ridiculous price target at which to buy more as way of getting this off my to do list. So the alert popped up today and I am now in at sub £1. I still think it is a ludicrous price. The key metric for me is the number of vehicles on TRAK's servers because it reflects the annuity element of the business. That number rises with every update and so the business value is increasing along with it. The market reaction to weakening exchange rates was wild and excessive (imo) and I would be pretty confident we will see a recovery over the next 6-9 months or so. Happy to be here GLA GS

I don't want to pour cold water, but we are unlikely now to see that any time soon imo. From what I have seen of shorts closing, with very few exceptions they contrive to do so while spooking the market so the sp goes down as they buy. The update was just not good enough to sustain the rise in sp and as I wrote a couple of days ago I can easily see it going back to the 360's. I have no doubt we will see new highs later this year, but the shorts have to leave first. GS

Apologies for off topic. @jh - CPI is a complete no-brainer. Absurd market over-reaction imo. I took profits in PAYS around 410 but still have a v. large holding and am happy to wait now as the sp will surely breach 470 in the next few month either because they have more good news or because they get bought. Good for you in LAV - I got bored there years ago :-(( I tend to stay away from energy (that is just me) but will look at PLP although the rise from Oct suggests there might be a lull/drop soon. You might be interested in UTW. New CEO, new CFO, huge Woodford support... but DYOR GL GS

I am with you. The price fall was a wild over-reaction, the recent update was safe and steady (which was what was needed), the guilty party has done the honourable thing and so I find it hard to believe the sp will not climb significantly over the next few months. It won't get back to the dizzy heights of the 70's and 80's but I would be very happy with any two digit number beginning with a 4 :-) GLA GS

@jh - not sure about sensible. Misguided more likely. No - I don't follow Momentum Investor. I read IC, the FT, SCSW, John Rosier and a couple of others. I watch what Neil Woodford does as I think he is the best investor in the UK today. I have a spreadsheet of about 100 companies that I keep refreshing with likely candidates from the sources I use. Then I just do my own research. I just look for companies which in the cold light of day look fundamentally underpriced to me/imo etc. I narrow these down so I never have more than 10 -15 in my portfolio and I am probably heavily invested in only three or four of those at any one time. Right now the list includes CPI, CRAW, INL, PAYS, PHTM, RCN, XLM and a couple of others. My heavy holding are CPI, PAYS and here. Having said which I made money in QPP and VAST both of which can only be described as lunatic bets, but I was lucky with my timing, so a little money turned into a lot quite quickly. And I ALWAYS TAKE PROFITS. GL GS

Craig If you want an ever quicker insight - go to https://woodfordfunds.com/words/blog/2016-year-review (if the link gets taken down, just search for Woodford Funds and go to the blog which reviews 2016. No reading. Just watch the video. For "momentum Investors" read "tipsheets" GS

@BB - You too??? I hold SCH shares and a bet in the hope... Also woefully undervalued I think and would slot straight in to PAYS. Unimaginable that they have not spoken, but SCH is controlled by someone who does not sell cheap and who PAYS may not find palatable.... still we can keep dreaming :-)

I am with you on taking a profit this morning. I took some today at about the same time as you which lowered my average cost further and reduced my holding, so I now feel happier. I will probably wait a bit now to take more, or use today's proceeds to buy more if the shorts strike again. I thought the RNS was rather lacklustre to be honest, which is why I am unsurprised at the fall in sp as I write. Against what was said on 8th Nov, revenues are up by a fraction and EBITDA by a tad. Both increases are small enough to have been in reserves made available by a sensible CFO (which PAYS has). Or they could have come from exchange rate movements. No news of a US listing. And on the M&A front "the pursuit of bold M&A opportunities" might be a hint that they are after another Skrill type buy but pursuit does not mean success. The best bit imo is the organic growth in revenues forecast for next year. PAYS could have made more of a meal of this. On past performance "low double digit" ends up meaning mid 20%'s (the outlook this time last year turned out to be about 12% lower than it is now) which would be very nice. PAYS has a history of underpromising, so I think at constant currency rates we can reckon on 2017 revenues of about $1.2bn with EBITDA of at least $355m. I suspect they are lowballing on the EBITA % as well since it rose by 4.7% (which is an increase of 18.8%) from 24.9% in 2015 to 29.6% in 2016. To reach an average of 29.6%, year end EBITDA was higher than that so I suspect my number of $355 may be low by as much as $25-30m. With a following wind and a bit of M&A don't be surprised if EBITDA for 2017 ends up at about $400m. Which makes the forward p/e look absurd. So now we just sit and wait and see if the buyback keeps on pushing the sp, we hope for a short to close and we would all love to see a major holdings RNS with a new ii or an increase from an existing one. Despite all the good stuff, without some of this the sp is entirely capable of drifting back to the 360's between now and the time of the results announcement in March (the date in the RNS is clearly a mistake). Any thoughts out there? GS

@Wolf - you may well be right. I have been arguing for the significance of the buyback on this bb since it was introduced. However I bought and bet more than I should have in the 200's. As a result my position even then was disproportionately large. With the increase since then, in my terms, it is huge. I am uncomfortable with that and will be delighted with a 40%+/- profit in less than a month if I can sell a chunk around 430. Irrespective of what happens afterwards. Of course, if there is a bid for PAYS before the update… :-) GLA GS

@nen - haha - anything is possible with this share. Seriously, then so be it. The faster the sp rises before an announcement the higher the chance it will be "disappointing" (I.e. good but not good enough). That makes the argument for profit taking stronger, not weaker. GS

Interesting. Normally, when it hits a high like this, the sp retraces almost immediately. However we have a results statement just round the corner which we expect to be very good. So there should be more gas in the tank I feel (hope). GLA GS

@BB - with you on the nervous disposition front. As previously stated, I intend to take profits in the 430 region assuming we get there around 12th. I have too much invested here to leave it long term without some reduction. So I am enjoying today so far.... :-) As for the percentage shorted, you maybe right, but I wonder if there is any correction in the FCA spreadsheet for the shares bought back. If not, then the amount shorted is probably marginally higher than presently shown as the divisor (? its been a long time) is getting smaller. GS

Maybe so, but imo he did not cover himself in glory at UTW where there has been a questionmark over cash management for som etime. The sp there has strengthened considerably since his departure was announced in October 2016. At the same time, another accountant won't hurt right now. So for me, the jury is out right now. GLA GS

It is not a lot, but - according to shorttracker - Public Equity Partners reported another reduction on 6th Jan of 0.05%, down to 1.78% short. I am guessing but it is likely we will see further reductions announced for 9/10/11 in due course. GS

@Technie - Thank you. Sort of confirms what I suspected. Your analysis - I think - says that if you had been a short investor, then there was cause to take short positions at least when the two larger ii’s took them. They were probably looking at identical data and similar charts. And I think the smallest of the three is just a herd follower (polite slang for quant investor?) Assuming the above is correct, then given if some bearish indicators remain as you suggest, I can see why all three are still in. Two because there are bearish signs and the third because the other two are there (unfair but only a little). So we have something of a coin flip - if the chart gets stronger the shorts ought to close, if it weakens they will may another go or just let the sp drift. For me, the stardust in the mix has to be the trading update. The bod put a buyback in place because they said the sp was too low. A lacklustre update will allow the sp to slip back and at least some of the stock repurchased will end up looking expensive. Which calls their judgement into question etc etc. So in their shoes I would be busting a gut to produce: An outlook at the top end of expectations Tangible signs of earnings enhancing M&A activity A US quote We also have a good FD, and I am laying money that he will have kept a little something in his back pockets just for a time like this. So we may see the release of a provision that is no longer required, a statement that the Skrill integration is going even faster/better than anticipated or something similar…. 2 days to go GLA GS

@BB - Thought provoking post. So I had a look at what the short funds actually did (it is all on shorttracker). In order of size of short: AEK started early (in June 2016) and seem to have bought when the sp moved into the outer/upper bollinger band. I only have the vaguest idea what a bb is, but they are on the shareprice graph I pay no attention to.....:-) So AEK shorted when the price was high. Their average short is well over 400p (I would guess 430+p) and they are still comfortably in the money. They also cleared out 15% of their holding when the sp was in the low 300's (maybe lower) Public Equity Partners joined the party later and started shorting in October. Looks like they were triggered by the high sp then. Bollies at it again? They added all the way through November as the sp was falling.I think their average is probably 400p +/-. they reduced their holding after the December crash and again last week. Still in the money, but only by 20-25p at best imo. The smallest are Oxford Asset Management. Aka Johnny Come Lately and declared their short positions on 2nd and 18th December. If they followed the rules they are probably underwater right now. It also looks as if they missed the bottom to take some profit. I have no idea what the above says except that there are clearly different ways of going about shorting. Two look as if they are driven by a logic that says an unusual high is probably going to be followed by an unusual low. One looks as if they just jumped on the bandwagon (quant?) and got it wrong. I am a coward, and would have closed as much as I could as early after mid December as I could. AEK - who look the smartest of the three on this evidence, could easily take a view that they have cleared a nice profit on part of their short and that they can afford to wait for the next sp spike and subsequent fall before realising more profit. Or if the update is disappointing, then there will be another opportunity to either close, stampede the market or do both. Whatever AEK do, don't be surprised if Public Equity Partners do the same - they seem to think along similar lines. Oxford seem to be driven by sp movement, in which case they may well close at a loss as the sp rises towards the update. But that is probably wishful thinking. I would love to hear a chartist's (Technie are you out there?) view - given with the benefit of hindsight) - as to whether the charts pointed to an opportunity to short. If so, that probably gives the best clue as to what the shorts may do going forward as the charts change. GS

@threeputt - Sorry - I mispoke. It is controlled by Israeli shareholders. Guernsey is a flag of convenience for many companies including SCH.

Sorry - when I say " I am saying that their prospect makes another bear raid more rather than less likely." I of course mean " I am saying that their prospect makes another bear raid less rather than more likely." Ooops GS

@phoenix As I said, professional shorters don't think like pi's. So almost any comment is speculation. Except that it is encouraging that shorts reduced a bit on Friday. Who knows if £100m is enough. Only time will tell but I would think it probably is. It is being spent at a slow rate - so there is plenty left - and is a deterrent to anything other than a co-ordinated short attack by a group of heavy hitters with the firepower to outsell 100m of buys. I would think that makes another attack unlikely and therefore it has probably done its job already. Assuming it remains in place for the next 6 months or so - only being used if needed - we have the following to look forward to (all are possible) 1. a couple more trading updates 2. maybe a tasty take over or two. 3. PAYS might even look for a listing in the US. 4. Shorts may close further 5. Someone might buy PAYS 6. With cash to throw at a buyback, maybe a dividend policy.... Any/all of these ought to push the sp up by themselves and so make the buyback both unnecessary and last longer. I am not saying any of these (apart from the updates) will happen. I am saying that their prospect makes another bear raid more rather than less likely. GLA longs GS