RE: Should I stay or should I go now?..24 Aug 2017 12:38
I think this is what is called a conundrum. I am not in, but waiting a bit so my opinion is probably worthless. Still here goes.
I have little doubt the sp will end up a lot higher than it is today, but like other posters here I suspect it is 18-24 months away.
The problem is what happens between now and then. The acting CEO (who was CFO) is by definition associated with the ex-CEO. There is no way he can plausibly disclose any accounting oddities in the next update as he was until a few days ago responsible for the accounting.
The BoD have said that they are searching for a new CEO. Let's assume they hire outside - as opposed to confirming the acting CEO. If they do, then any new CEO worth his/her salt will conduct a full review to find every skeleton possible and will then "kitchen sink" them in a trading update. As in "sorry folks this is what happened before I came along, thought you would like to know...". If that happens the sp will fall a lot further before it recovers.
In my experience "kitchen sinking" includes making provisions for things you do not really believe, but it allows a new CEO to build in some safety margin which can be released if future numbers are not quite up to expectations. So I suspect the sp is capable of falling a lot further but the worst may still be some months away assuming a CEO appointment in the near future.
Which is why I am not buying just yet.
GLA
GS