Member Info for GSmiley

For my money we are in a buying zone. I hold a few and am starting to add more so imo selling now would be a mistake. UTW has a new management team with pedigree which has had enough time to begin to make a difference. It has a solid major shareholder in Woodford. And reviews from customers are always biased in favour of the complainers. The company has ambitious targets and will be reporting against KPI's that reflect those so I would suggest it might make sense to wait for the next update which ought to happen in the next 8-10 weeks. More likely to go up a lot than down a lot I think. But each to their own. GLA GS

I have very nearly doubled since February. So I am out for the time being. I think the balance of probability is that someone somewhere will take profit and there will be a retrace. If not, I am still happy. GLA GS

After a stonking first half, the second half is not half bad either given that revenues are the same as in the whole of 2016. With a statement that there will be " commensurate increase in profits" the sp should do quite a bit between now and final results in July/Aug. GS

@Toulouz - ;-) You say what you think and don't let anyone get to you. No one posts here for any reason other than to serve themselves. And no one really listens except other readers here - possibly. Anyone who thinks that MM's do not know what will be in Techinvest or any other tipsheet before they are published is dreaming. And the sp will have been adjusted accordingly by the time subscribers get a read. GS

You are joking of course. You might as well say that about readers of the FT, IC or people who pay for their TV license. This is AIM, and investing for personal gain. There is no sense of fair play, there are no rules and dogs eat dogs. Czarboy gave paid up readers 3 minutes grace. That should have been plenty. GS

And 32% being sold right now. Interesting to see the sp tomorrow morning. All depends on how quickly Berenberg build their book. And at what price. GS

@wolf - Friday afternoon funtime ref your " Acquisition "well down the runway" - $70-$100 mn EBITDA and capacity of $1bn debt funding" Who are the targets? Your starter for 10. To me the obvious one is Safecharge although it does not (quite) fit the EBITDA range as its guidance for this year - due in a few days ought to be for $50m+ so it may not be far out. One huge shareholder who is effectively locked in and may be very happy to take PAYS paper if he believes its' only way is up. A whole bunch of synergies a la Skrill. A pile of cash the vendor could keep etc Any advance? GS

@Wolf - thanks but undeserved this time. I have tried to keep my PAYS investment profits in PAYS when it feels like rising and I have scrambled to get them out when it looks like falling. Selling before the results this time was a no brainer to me because it looked like a racing certainty that there would be no new news on the day. When expectations are high that equates to bad news. Although my holding is down from its mid December peak I still have over 30,000 shares here. That translated into more risk than I was prepared to face even though I am utterly convinced we have to see either a rerate, or an acquisition or a takeover. Any one of those three outcomes should mean a real uplift in sp (I am a 500p+ man) and I am all up for that. But trading around the results was more cowardice than anything else as I was scared of the mm's playing up, stops losses being triggered and the shorts (still here of course) doing that thing they do. BB called it almost exactly right - yet again, I just waited until it really looked as if the sp had bottomed and bounced. It will probably be down tomorrow but I liked the buyback around 400. That makes it tough to short from here and little fluctuations are OK for me. GLA GS

@BB - probably good timing I would think. I sold almost everything (always except SIPP) on Friday and placed a hopeful order at 400p which was filled this morning. That is the problem with this share, it is so predictable that it makes even a confirmed buy and hold merchant like me into a trader. Yuck, but the same holding plus nearly 7% in cash in just over two days is not to be sneezed at..... GL GS

As predicted by some on this bb there was and is no cause for excitement today. The results are as per the update of 12th Jan. There is no M&A news - it was was always absurd to think it would be timed to happen today. So if anything extra was priced in, it will now be priced out. The sp will reach new highs, just not today nor, in the absence of news (which is not hinted at today), will it happen any time very soon. GS

As predicted by some on this bb there was and is no cause for excitement today. The results are as per the update of 12th Jan. There is no M&A news - it was was always absurd to think it would be timed to happen today. So if anything extra was priced in, it will now be priced out. The sp will reach new highs, just not today nor, in the absence of news (which is not hinted at today), will it happen any time very soon. GS

Well - imo it will be a damp squib. Nothing special ref results, no "bold M&A" and, unfortunately, no positive market reaction. Happy to be proved wrong but the absence of a list minute flurry suggests otherwise. GS

"One thing going for Pi's on here as opposed to other companies is that the men at the to have very large holdings so what's good for us is measurably much better for them." Hmmmm. Not sure about that. History is full of examples that would suggest you are wrong there. VAST, TRAK (today), XLM, SCH, QPP even dare I say it PAYS have histories of the men at the top looking after themselves at the expense of poor lil' ol' pis. But this may be different of course. GS

@AATM - you may well be right, and I still have not decided how I am going to play this outside my SIPP which is there until PAYS is bought or rules the world...). This share has a nasty habit of falling in price after an announcement. There have been exceptions, but in general that is what happens. The last price (avge) paid before PAYS stopped its buyback was 399.5p. We could easily be at 43x by results day and that leaves room for a 10% slide. The shorts are still there and I have enormous respect for their judgement (esp AEK who are the largest). Anyone who dismisses them is a fool or a genius. I believe that there is a weight of expectation about "brave M&A" that will weigh on the sp if there is not a "brave" announcement. I know enough about M&A to understand that nothing is done until the ink is on the paper. So as of today, there is nothing tangible here. Soft words and all that. Equally, the last update looked very much as if the CFO had shaken everything out he had tucked away. So the numbers for last year are likely to be exactly as per that update. Expectations of a further uplift will probably be disappointed. On the flip side, it is perfectly possible that the chairman's/ceo's statements on Tuesday are sufficiently upbeat about current/future trading to spark a surge in sp (Technie is correct - PAYS has lagged the market). It is equally possible that lightning strikes twice and a game changing bit of m&a is announced on Tuesday. I have no doubt the bod is trying, but it would still be a great bit of showmanship. So I just don't know. I will probably end up dithering, selling some and keeping some.... GLA GS

@technie - Still in the rising channel that I think formed about 6 weeks ago. Whatever that means.... Having said which my concern is that anticipation is mounting for an exciting announcement next week. The bod may well be able to timetable it accordingly, but the sp will drop if all we hear is what we already know. GS

Depends on your timescale imo. There is nothing wrong with the business. However (amongst other things) moving to a SaaS offering reduces headline revenues and profits. The trade off is that the quality of the revenue stream improves and future revenue visibility is much better I.e. a deal over 3 years is visible for up to 3 years while a one off sale is invisible as soon as it happens. So 12-18 months down the line I would think that quality will shine through and as long as they keep on executing as they have, the sp will reflect that. I bought a fair few today - already had a very small holding and have tucked them away in the expectation that they will at least double in that timeframe. GL GS

Any thoughts on PAYS buying SCH? GS

I usually get these wrong, but imo CPI sub-500 at the beginning of this month was a laugh and a wild overreaction. I bought then and so far so good. The sector is not really in favour - look at what happened to SERCO on their announcement the other day, but most of CPI does most of what it says on the tin. So for me at least this has become a long term hold. I would expect a relatively rapid recovery to about 700-750p. It will take much longer if ever to get back to 1100p, but the yield is delicious is the divi is maintained which CPI says will be the case. 6% and a good chance of a 50% gain in my SIPP is not to be sniffed at. GLA GS

@AL75 From the update on 6th Jan. "We have continued to build on the progress noted in our last update with the improvements in sales and customer numbers being maintained through December as planned. Group sales were up 13% in the 5 week period versus the prior year, with total customer numbers also up 13% for the same period. Like-for-like sales were -3.8% for the 5 weeks ended 1 January 2017 having improved from -8.1% for the 4 weeks ended 27 November 2016. Like-for-like customer numbers were -4.2% having improved from -9.7% for the same periods. As previously communicated, this improvement in both sales and customer number momentum has required a moderate level of margin investment, with gross margins in the like-for-like stores at 43.6% H2 2017 to date (versus 44.9% H2 2016 to date). With the improvement in performance continuing through the festive trading period, the Board remain confident in achieving full year market expectations."

Your friend may not be too well informed. Although, of course, we all hope he/she is correct. And let's hope they are not an insider.... According to the UTW website the update is not on Monday but on Tuesday 21st February. GS