Member Info for GSmiley

"Tremor’s listed peer Magnite has announced that it intends to acquire SpotX for $1.17bn in cash and shares, or c10x SpotX FY20 net revenue of $116m. After Tremor upgraded its FY20 net revenue to $180m in its January trading update, 10x net revenue would imply a Tremor valuation of $1.8bn or 1,000p per share.

The SpotX transaction enables Magnite to grow its scale within connected TV and digital video advertising, and will provide Magnite with $67m of FY20 net CTV revenue, or almost triple Magnite-SpotX’s Q4 20 net CTV revenue to $42m compared to $15.3m for Magnite standalone. In comparison, we expect Tremor to report over $15m of net CTV revenue in Q4 20 and $35m for FY20 as Tremor’s momentum in CTV has continued to accelerate. However, before the MagniteSpotX transaction, Magnite’s market cap was over $4.8bn compared with Tremor’s market cap of $1.0bn. As Tremor continues to deliver and exceed expectations, we do not expect that its current valuation will be sustainable due to market or external interest, and today’s transaction highlights that M&A is taking place around the growth in CTV and digital video that Tremor is capitalising upon. On 12-month forward forecasts, Tremor is currently trading on 13x EV/EBITDA with conservative EBITDA growth of +15%, which compares to US peers Magnite, The Trade Desk, and PubMatic on 61x, 114x, and 53x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA with EBITDA growth of +10-60%. " Ends.

All looks pretty bleak someone might say...

GLA
GS

I think the sp needs to be about £2.35 for RCH to get into the FTSE250. if that happens tracker fund buying would push the sp up further.

Finals are being announced on 1st March. The date at which the makeup of the FTSE250 for the next quarter is determined is 2nd March (close of business).

Last year's results announcement also contained forward-looking statements. Assuming the same happens this year (and I am guessing they will be positive) I would think the chance of FTSE250 entry is pretty good.

As this is one of my larger holdings, fingers and toes are firmly crossed.

GLA
GS

For anyone who is not sure how a fuel cell works/why it is better and what the difference between solid oxide and proton exchange membrane cells is there is a really clear explanation at https://www.cummins.com/news/2020/05/01/energy-iq-what-solid-oxide-fuel-cell-and-how-fuel-cells-work.

GLA
GS

@Thincat - no advice, just saying what I am doing/thinking.
1. 3 out of 10 key sites have had their penalty removed so far. I take that to mean that XLM has worked out what to do, and the majority of the remaining sites will return to Google's index in the next few months. They will not be as strong as they were before Google penalised them but, with a bit of work, they will recover. You can do your own sums on what that might do to EBITDA/cashflow, but it surely won't get worse and both are positive right now.

2. I quite like a management team that does not announce too much/often. The ones that do tend not to have a lot to say or are pumping the sp. There is a sensible-looking team in place - let them get on with their work. So the next likely RNS' will be either news that more sites are recovering or some form of an update when the results come out which ought to be towards the end of April. Both also ough to be good news.

3. I do not know what "in this share for some time" means, but not that long ago, XLM was a money pump. And if you look at the numbers, it still is. Operational gearing is awesome, so as sites come back to life and profitability, the bank balance will go up smartly (all imho of course).

4. I have no idea what the management team's real style is yet, so they will either buy more businesses or pay a dividend. I prefer the latter because you will see an immediate rerate as income seekers buy in. But I won't be heartbroken if they acquire and try to grow; this is a good space to be operating in.

5. And don't forget that about $5m of annual cost savings (which were paid for last year) start feeding into the P&L this year

So my hope/expectation is that the sp at least doubles in 2021 and I am prepared to be patient while I wait.

GLA
GS

Can anyone shed any more light on XLM's largest shareholder? I have never found anything better than the following from 2016 "Premier Investissement is a holding company under French law, controlled by Mr. Olivier Mitterrand, of which 100% of the capital and voting rights are held by Mr. Olivier Mitterrand, Mr. Moïse Mitterrand, Mr. Guillaume Nadd Mitterrand, Mr. Louis-David Mitterrand, Mr. Maël Mitterrand, Madame Marie Mitterrand, and Madame Antigone Mitterrand..."

Olivier is the nephew of former French President François Mitterrand and the brother of the Minister of Culture, Frédéric Mitterrand. In his seventies now, but a clever boy, went to Harvard, successful property developer etc etc.

All info welcome

GS

@WS
If you have not already done so, read a decent book on Warren Buffett. He has all sorts of rules that sound really simple (although not necessarily so easy to put into practice) but the one that I think makes the most difference is to "do all your research before you buy". That way you don't need to hang on every headline, market tremor and FANG spat. He buys, he holds, he increases and he is usually very successful indeed.

So, if you believe TRMR has:
a good management team
fairly stated accounts
believable forecasts
sufficient funding and good cash flow going forward
technology as good as or better than their competitors
found a market that is growing
some measure of proprietary defence against copycats (see tech)

then why worry about Zuckerberg vs Cook. Games will be played, content will be streamed and ads will be targeted.

Alternatively, look at a fund like Slater Growth which has some fun holdings and a really smart manager who will do it all for you.

GL
GS

Given some of the absurd prices that have resulted from the Reddit inspired short-burning, if you were going to invest in any (I am not) you might think about going short.

BIDS is risky enough for me.

GLA
GS

"...because there is now an EU-Japan free trade agreement that includes cars."
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Which was negotiated in 2017-18 has been effective since 1st February 2019. So Nissan has probably thought of that already.

I'm not sure when the penalty removals referred to in the RNS today began, but I have been watching a few of XLM's larger sites for a while. Casinokiwi.co.nz appeared in the top ten - for the first time - for a number of NZ specific searches such as "best online pokies nz" over the week-end. Top 10 means you will often appear on the first page of searches and also that your Pay Per Click ad costs come down. I am not saying this is a reason to rush out and buy more, but this is (at least) one site that will be making a contribution to earnings going forward that was not doing so a few days ago.

It also suggests that XLM has worked out how to get sites relisted, so I would expect more positive news flow over the next few months.

GLA
GS

RNS's are mandatory for, amongst other things:
- ALL director share dealings
- ANY change in a company's share capital.

SNN, SW77 - I agree, although I am keener on tech than some. For me, this is a cracking company, with an edge in a sector which is growing like topsy. It is throwing off cash and I like what I see of the management team on paper and in video presentations. I imagine that at some stage they will look for a listing in the US. On that basis, I think there is a great deal more to go for.
GLA
GS

@SW77 - If you have read one, you won't get a great deal more from the second. It preaches pretty much the same message. PEG, sustainable profits, cash conversion and decent management. Ideally in a sector/industry where you would expect to see growth. Nothing like TRMR then... :-)

GS

I would prefer to see a listing in the US. Think GAN.
GLA
GS

@Winstanley - I also hold a reasonable number here and continue to add. So I want the sp to rise (I expect it will over time) but almost anything I and others like me say will have that bias. But I could have a vendetta against the company just want the sp to fall either because I have shorted or because I want to buy in more cheaply. So SNN is spot on in warning you against taking advice from posters on these boards. Even unintentionally, everyone has an axe to grind.

GL
GS

I could not agree more. Replying to someone who clearly has an obsessive axe to grind just clogs the board and makes it a waste of time.
GS

Respecting SCSW's value, I think enough time has passed for subscribers to have acted if they wanted to.
Drivers it identified as being positive in making RCH a nap included:

possibly buying local newspaper group JPI
increasing possibility of search engines being forced pay media organisations whose content they use
Panmure has a 310p target
SCSW thinks digital execution could lift it to 616p.

The conclusion was "Many investors are still looking at old trend lines and haven’t realised it could go hockey stick. Prospective PE is <5"

I am continuing to add
GLA
GS

I don't post that often, but the thing to do with idiots is to ignore them.

I have been watching/enjoying the rise in sp since TRMR seemed (to me at least) a pretty obvious buy in April. Even better now as SCSW has it as a nap for 2021 and there is a broad hint in this month's issue that it will figure in their GP3 very soon. Which will push it up a bit more.

You only have to look at the power of YouTube as a search engine to get some idea of how persuasive a video ad can be. Given TRMR's ability to target 3rd party ads precisely, without breaking GDPR rules, plus what looks like awesome EBITDA gearing, and it may well be my portfolio star this year.

GLA
GS

Good to see this was a 2021 nap selection in SCSW this week-end.
GLA
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Finance Director buys 100k. Balchin has a good looking cv and looks like a sensible bloke. Plus, one has to believe that if any director can recognise an undervalued share it ought to be the FD.

GLA
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:-)
And the chat has mainly been about support levels. Which is all very well when tomorrow's business is roughly the same as yesterday's. That is not the case here. The issue is whether RCH can grow/exploit its subscriber data and then monetise it so as to achieve a basis of valuation that makes it look more like Facebook than a has-been newspaper publisher. Today's RNS - which I think translates into c. 750k additional subscribers over the last 3 weeks - makes that look increasingly likely.

Assuming the market recognises that and rerates accordingly, then I think charts will be pretty irrelevant.

GLA
GS