Member Info for GSmiley

Guilty

@Lsoc - I could not agree **** *** ****** ***** ** ******. a Moreover ****, *** ********* ****** ***** ** * ***** **** **********.

I see shorts are up to 3.3%. WorldQuant opened a short on 3rd March and have now increased it to 1.18%
Can't help feeling they are wrong, but we shall see.
Good luck longs
GS

I think this is the main takeaway form 25 pages:
"We currently leave our FY21 P&L forecasts unchanged except for reported group
revenue, to highlight that Tremor’s change in its revenue accounting, which
aligns it with US GAAP, does not impact gross revenue, net revenue, gross profit,
EBITDA, EPS, or cash, and we explain this change from p16. We upgrade our
FY21 net cash to $136m from $118m, look forward to further trading updates, and
upgrade our target price to 1,000p based on 21x FY22 EBITDA."

They explain why they have not upgraded forecasts and make the statement that the "FY21
EBITDA of $67.8m is likely to be very conservative".

Really important (I think) is the revision to the way revenues are reported. This is purely cosmetic, bringing TRMR's revenue reporting in line with its US peers. That would be a complete waste of time if they did not have their eyes on a US quote. At which point, I suspect 1,000p will be on the low side.
GLA
GS

Let's be honest. There are no surprises here in terms of numbers. Things went well and continue to go well. Valuations in the US look frothy but the average US investor is unlikely to look at AIM. Foreign, time difference, currency issues, perceived risk in holding stock regulated elsewhere etc. You only have to look at what happened to GAN's sp when it listed in the US to see the truth of that.

So you are right. The most important statement was the one - surrounded in caveats - regarding exploring the possibilities of a US listing. Encouraging, but surely no surprise. I take that to mean that they are actively pursuing a dual listing and that there will be further news in due course. If that happens, unless there is a tech meltdown in the US in the meantime, then the sp will rocket. All imho of course
GLA
GS

From Sharecast - Analysts at Berenberg initiated coverage on batteries and lightbulbs distributor Supreme at 'buy' on Tuesday, stating the group was "supremely well positioned".
GLA
GS

Thankfully I got in a bit sooner/lower than that. But I am enjoying what is going on.
GLA
GS

@TT - I suspect we will just disagree, but I think your reply has it the wrong way round. You are correct when you say "Future is not by any means a vendor to Goco or a company that would benefit from Goco's reviews being slanted towards Future's products or services". But then nor is Kape a vendor to Webselenese which would be the parallel. It is exactly the other way around and GoCo will be promoting products that are also reviewed on FUTR sites. And there is no statement about impartiality from FUTR when it does that.

Let's call it a draw and (sorry you are not a holder) enjoy the rise while it lasts. Results are just around the corner and the clear excitement on Kape's CEO face when he was talking yesterday about this deal suggests there will be a very upbeat statement next month.

GLA
GS
GS

Really? I am doing some of this from memory so excuse the odd inaccuracy, but...

Global Insights (GI) published a report about 12 months ago specifically on the size and future of the VPN market. Globally GI expected the market to grow from c.$30bn today to c.$70bn (yes, that is billions) by 2026. It expected 16%(?) to be consumer-driven, not heavyweight commercial stuff. So $4.8bn growing to about $11bn. And you really think the Competition and Markets Authority is going to give a second thought to a takeover that results in Kape having base revenues of $200m (4% plus of the consumer segment of the market place)? Actually, Kape's share is even less than that as Webselense's revenues do not contain the sales of any VPNs at all. Plus, of course, there are other review sites out there. FUTR for example, owns a massive slice of the review site market and has just bought GoCo without the Competition and Markets Authority doing anything at all. FUTR's intentions at the time of the takeover were pretty clearly stated as being anything but impartial. At least sites like vpnMentor are saying they will maintain their independence.

Each to their own, but I think you are being unduly pessimistic.
GLA
GS

With an earnings release due next week, which should include some commentary on present and future trading, this could be a big month.

One of my core holdings, so a happy holder.
GS

@Chri55 - Thanks.

The best estimate for a results date I can find is 5th May. Can anyone advance on that?
Thanks
GS

@PP - good write up - thank you for sharing. The turnround and the appointment of Claire Milverton as CEO are no coincidence. In the "beforetime" of hotels, crowded rooms and 5-6 presentations in 90 minutes, SPA presented and she put her SEO in the shade. Luckily, I only spotted Claire had been appointed in 2020 when I was idly browsing "stuff". That was Feb and my son in Hong Kong was telling me that there was a virus that might prove to be quite serious. So I liquidated pretty much every investment I had, but post the March crash bought most of them back and added to my portfolio with the cash leftover. SPA was on that list. So I like Claire.

The other key player (imo) is Andrew Fabian. I was a very happy s/h at Statpro where he was CFO. He is a really classy act and a wise head to have in a tech business. He is interim, but I am delighted to see he is still there and when he goes I am sure it will be in good order and that he will have had input into his successor. Also interesting that he has bought (at cost) about £50k of shares. If you are an interim, there is no need to show "loyalty" so I suspect he liked what he saw and I think he has very good judgement.

GLA
GS

Highlighting why the data SPA deals in is increasingly important. https://www.techuk.org/resource/authoritive-geospatial-data-and-digital-twins-denmark-in-3d.html

Announced today:
"Reach plc announced today that it has signed a three-year agreement with data specialist
BlueVenn, which will see the publisher adopt BlueVenn’s award-winning Customer Data
Platform and CRM software."

You can read the full release here - https://www.reachplc.com/static-files/50731952-c3ca-4ba5-a55b-0e36607628c1

PS. it feels as if we are getting into top-up territory.

Finncap today - "We upgrade revenue by 17.0%, EBITDA by 14.6% and our SOTP-driven
price target by 10.5% to 357p from 323p."

GLA
GS

RNS out today confirming my last post. Full-year EBITDA to be well ahead of market expectations at c£12m with more to come I think. As their CEO said:

"Our pipeline remains strong for the remainder of FY21 and we are confident of making further progress in the current financial year."

GLA

Give it time.

sorry M&A

Not a lot is going to happen in terms of sp (barring M& action) until there is some news which I would guess is about 2 weeks away. Given recent TU's I think that will be binary. either the uplifting trend of late 2020 will have continued and the sp rockets, or it will look lke a covid/election/xmas flash in the pan in which case the sp bombs and someone will pick TRMR up cheap. All imho of course.
GS