Member Info for grouchomarx

You're not being stupid. Nothing will be resolved today. If the Court gives the go ahead it only tells us there's a fair chance an agreement with the creditors can be reached.

What do YOU think considering the circumstances? I'm counting on 4p minimum and 8p max.

thank you for sharing!

30/12/2010 they had 77 million liabilities of which 26 million was current. So yes, this probably is an important subsidiary.

Maybe we'll get an RNS after close. It does look like this is a subsidiary and probably an important one. I think this could be the/a subsidiary that possesses the fire engines and has a large portion of the debt.

"You are correct, no one knows what's in the SOA. My concern is if they opt for the £10 million investment and try to keep afloat, where are they going get finance from for their middleeast contracts. They certainly dont have the money themselves and banks won't touch them with a barge pole. A t/o is the only sensible option left, imo." I can see your concerns but ME is a joint venture isn't it so it's not (fully) depending on Asto imo. I would prefer a t/o but that's probably just because I'm impatient. :)

"SOA- Scheme of Arrangement- read the RNS's, go on the company website and do your own reasearch and make your own decision. A lot of good balanced posts on here as well- if you can filter the BS. GL" So you know what to do Ying: filter mska! lol

the creditors are no point of concern. With it the creditors that have to be paid today can be paid. Other creditors (leasecompanies) just will have to wait for the payment dates contractually agreed on. I can see no problems here.....

"Assetco will not have lower debt, they will just have longer to pay for it. This will buy them a bit of time to hopefully start making more money from their business ventures to keep the creditors happy. Their contracts carry high financial risk for failure and could easily wipe out a lot of their profit." Imo the scheme of arrangement can mean: lower debt and/or granting longer time to pay back. We don't know what was proposed to the creditors so anything is possible.

"In my opinion- I do no think it is an option- as it will only provide a short term solution- long term they will struggle. A takeover is the only option and the BOD know it and so do the creditors." I'll have to disagree here. Asto is profitable but has a liquidity problem. IF creditors agree Asto will have lower debt and together with the equity injection their businessmodel will be sound. I can see a future for Asto without a takeover....

Does that have anything to do with the july 25th RNS: "In addition, discussions with a potential offeror have reached a very advanced stage but we have not been able to reach agreement, and as the potential offeror also needs to reach agreement with the banks, there can be no certainty that there will be an offer for the Company." Is the creditor scheme of arrangement the same as "agreement with the banks"? Although I do not know what to make of it the Assetco/Arcapita Bank RNS from today is very interesting.

going down big time tomorrow.

we're being dilluted BEFORE the t/o takes place? With every day that passes an equity injection becomes more likely (and would be killing for our potential profit).

to happen at 4p or over we would have seen some heavy uying by now. I have the idea that it's only the pi's buying.

. greedfear - 17 Jul'11 - 09:28 - 2231 of 2233 edit Interesting. Ning estimates the social media creating market at 4 billion dollars. Let's say it's actually only 50 percent of that (2 billion). Being the number 2 in that market a market share of 5 percent seems doable. So we're talking 100 million dollars sgo-revenues here. Net margin (at least) 50 percent, so that would make 50 million. Tax rate 30 percent, then net profit 35 million dollars. Net profit in gbp 21 million. Marketcap: 8 x 21 is 168 million. I think we're going to see a shareissue before we'll get to the numbers mentioned above. So I guestimate the total number of issued shares will be 600 million in the end. The way I look at it now a 28p sp (168 million gbp/ 600 million shares) seems very possible. (I do not even want to think about the possible sp if Ning is right about the 4 million, sgo getting 10 percent of that, a net margin of 75 percent and a p/e of 10. In case you wonder: sp would be 210p. :) ).

Sp ready for take off?