Member Info for grouchomarx

Some people can't even count.... lol

(balls) it's buying time!

I do have a long position in Asto and have every intention to add some. I do not recommend to buy Asto if you can't afford to lose the money. It's not my intention to ramp (if it looks like that I apologize), it's just that I see an opportunity here at a 2p level to make a very nice return and I would hate to see people passing it by because of ....... GL

Some people fail or refuse to see that it was the debt part that was killing the company. Like you say, Asto was and is profitable and when the debt problem is solved (and it will be as noone will benefit from a bankruptcy) all that's left is a profitable and financially sound company. Will the current private investor benefit from it all? I do not have any doubt there for the ones buying into ASTO now at 2p or so. How much? Time will tell. As without any doubt the investors group are probably going to benefit the most from their latest 10 million equity injection (provided there is going to be one). And frankly I think they should because without them Asto probably would go bust. And let's not forget that till now this has been a costly adventure for them. My biggest fear in this play is in fact the dillution (going bust or not reaching an agreement with creditors is not an option). If an agreement with creditors (100 million) is reached and they'll get paid 25 million instantly, the equity of the company has increased with 75 million. If Asto has a current marketcap of 5 million (with debts of 100 million) then the marketcap should increase to 80 million. Asto currently has 250 million shares issued. How many more will be issued with the 10 million equity injection? You tell me. The possible SP will be 80 million GBP / (250 million+ newly issued shares). Offcourse we could turn this around as well. The current SP is 2.2p. If that's a correct value, while the total value of Asto is 80 million GBP, how may issued shares should there be? The answer: 80 million / 2.2p is 3.6 billion. In other words there'll have to be 3.35 billion newly issued shares to make this equation valid. Do you/we really think that the investors group will get 3.35 billion newly issued shares at 0.3p in return for their equity injection? So: I don't see the company going bust, I'll see them reaching an agreement with creditors (because no one will benefit from bankruptcy) and I expect a dillituve share issue. What about he future? I don't think that a t/o is out of the picture. Anyone interested (especially Arcapita) in taking over Asto should keep a very very low profile as long as discussions with creditors are ongoing. Knowing that some other party might benefit from the creditors writing might lead to them being more reluctant to do so. (Creditors are human too, I know I would having trouble with it). As far as we are informed their are possibly 4 parties interested. All of them will benefit from a creditorsagreement. Provided: they're not shouting it from the roofs and keep silent about it. And if no take-over? Well, what will be left is a profitable company without any cashflow problems. Asto must have been a painfull experience for people that invested at far higher levels. Now (at 2p) is not the time to be frustrated over historical events or confuse historical facts with the current situation. For investors with some gut

You haven't got a theory, but you do have an agenda. I'm not going to respond to you anymore. Have a nice day!

Clueless refering to the last sentence "(...) Nothing more was said in court about a bidder – known to be Arcapita Bank in Bahrain – which suggests they have gone cold on the idea."

creditors are only offered 23.5% as a final payment. http://davidhencke.wordpress.com/2011/08/26/judge-aids-rescue-package-for-bust-privatised-london-fire-firm/ " Once the debt is cleared it then makes the company more attractive to a take over. Nothing more was said in court about a bidder – known to be Arcapita Bank in Bahrain – which suggests they have gone cold on the idea." One word: Clueless.

now logging off for the weekend. Have a nice weekend all BOL with your investments/trades!

Crazy targets for ASTO? I wouldn't call 4-8p a crazy target. In a lot of my postings I've mentioned the reasons for that target. Suppose that as a trader you're not really interested.....

I don't know and I don't care. I've been in MOS long before he was and have been holding and adding for years. Yes, that's right..I can hold shares for years. Do not have a position in MOS now BTW.

I've done my research and was in SGO long before Tom BS advised them. The man is clueless and downgraded SGO for the wrong reasons. The number one in this playing field is Ning (valued in the hundreds of millions), SGO is number 2 and ready to launch a much improved version of their product. Do some research...then judge....it can very easily become a tenbagger (never mind, people didn't believe me when MOS could be bought at 1p and was doing everything right concerning setting up an app platform (app's? what are app's?).

Sorry to be off topic but I expect a roller coaster ride very soon in SGO (1.6-1.7p). That one can become a tenbagger easy. Don't take my word for it, DYOR but imo once people are becoming more aware of the potential there...... It's not a share to trade, it's one for longer term investors (like me).

Looking at the interim results (30-9-2010) Asto has non current borrowings of 68 million, trade payables of 19 million, current income tax liability of 2 million, current borrowings of 15 million. Together 104 million. If ASTO can reach an agreement with the creditors to pay 90% on it, it would save 10 million, raising the equity per share with 4p. 80%=>20 million=>higher equity per share 8p. Sounds good to me.

cheers!

RKH was a real thrill ride. Bought most of them at 11p. Can remember the treeshake (earthquake) day like yesterday. Sold most of them at 220p. Now still a holder and will keep those shares forever. Shouldn't fall in love, I know, but .... Now waiting for the same to happen to FOGL. That's going to be my early retirement ticket.

"I would be worried that there might be some stubborn parties involved i.e. HMRC and Northern Bank who might want all their pound of flesh. If these two oppose the arrangement deal – will others also?" .................... Stubborn parties only are a problem if they present over 25% in value of the creditors. ..................... "An arrangement proposed under S425 requires a meeting of creditors, or classes of creditors, to be summoned in any manner as the Court may direct approval of the proposals by a majority representing 75% in value of the creditors present and voting at the meeting. If the Court then sanctions the arrangement it is binding on all creditors in the classes concerned whether or not they had notice of the meeting." http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/manuals/insmanual/ins3103.htm

I'm convinced: I want to add! lol

keepin a very low profile currently as creditors "know" Arcadia is interested in taking over the company and creditors know they're "paying" for a part of the takeover sum if they go for partial debt forgiveness. Arcadia has to act as if they are not that interested in order to make creditors think that they are better off with a partial debt forgiveness as the alternative would be fire sale prices in case of administration. Meanwhile the investors group is playing her part very well. Just enough commitment to keep asto afloat provided creditors are willing to share the pain. Everyone is better off keeping this patient alive. :)

think sp will not alter a lot within a months time and why they have all the time in the world to (re)buy shares. RNS: "The Company expects next week to post to its creditors a document explaining the Scheme, setting out the full terms of the Scheme and convening the relevant meetings of creditors." Within a week or so we'll know exactly what will be proposed to the creditors. Clearly something that is very important for (the future of) the company. Anything that will be accepted by the creditors (be it an extension of repayment terms or (partial) debt forgiveness) will enhance sharevalue. I would not be surprised that if asto was to be taken over/backed up by Arcadia bank a proposition to the creditors could be something like: we will be paying you 70% of the debt right now if you leave it to that. Anything is possible but one thing is clear: every proposition will be in our (shareholders) advantage.

Wish I could have said it that way myself. Sellers do not seem to realize that we're far better off after todays court ruling then we were yesterday. For some reason one stupid lemming didn't comprehend, jumped off the cliff and others followed. One would expect a bounce tomorrow but then again after the RNS I expected a sp ending blue. If the sp goes down tomorrow: so be it, I'll be adding.