RE: Short Position across the board23 Nov 2024 22:30
"With that statement I wouldn't expect u to be posting at all in any stock your invested in. With your biggest investment in s4. I see your doing alot of posting their which is contradictory. I mean s4 hit 60s when Capita dropped, and you dropped in this board telling us how well s4 was doing. Suddenly nothing posted causing many to be concerned here."
Define a lot of posting? 20 posts in the last 30 days in S4 isn't anywhere close to a lot and that too at a relevant time when you have a incoming change in Government in the US that's being misread by the useless UK market and of course misleading posts that don't take into account the whole picture for that company being pushed to all-time lows. Put that in the context of when you post 40 times a week on no real news other than shorts increasing as that suits your trading FUD when you're out. It looks very transparent to me.
It's a head-scratcher as to what impact shorting has on how CPI's business is firing, which is all that matters to the stock price when you look beyond the last few and the next few days. Of course there's a recent company specific news vacuum and we've seen a recent pull back with the market taking advantage of a market leg down on fears that Reeves budget will shaft our economy (plus on speculation about what Trump can and will do) and marking down CPI's stock price. And maybe the shorters are piling in more, but they're also taking a view that CPI's business will continue to keep going down - I'm taking the opposite view noting increased government spending will keep the economy going and boost the public sector side of business, all while cost cuts have been applied through 2024, and more will happen through 2025 H1. Unless I see a marked downturn in the business and FCF forecasts for 2025 are thrown out of the window, and I can't see this happening when you have a senior exec buying in recently. I can see the Experience division not doing well in H2 but that's been broadcast to the market with that revenue guidance miss for H2 24.
You keep talking up shorts as messiahs, and I say b*ollocks to that. They're basing their shorts on their PoV for CPI's business fortunes in 2025 and that could well go in the opposite direction of their current view.
With regards to me sitting on a paper loss on investments, shi*ite can happen in the short term all the time. if I drop my pants and sell in panic when my investments falls below my buy price, I'd be long broke with that kind of genius investing. I've had some fantastic successes holding through near term pain in an out of flavour sector, and that's where CPI is at now. S4 has had its share of company specific issues that I didn't anticipate will linger through 2024, but that's where we are.
I expect both to come good as we roll into 2025 and I'll more than gladly take the opposite side of your trade in CPI.
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