Member Info for GoCPI

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With SavageGarden's 'out of control laughter', he resembles one of the two twisted, deformed (and rather too desperate-to-please Scar) hyenas on the original 'Lion King' movie. Come to think of it, SavageGarden and Aimless act look is uncannily similar to said hyenas and they walk the same way too."

PMSL .. And may I add, joined at the hip by our resident NoClue!!

Have a good Christmas all. môre is nog 'n dag, and all that. 2025 is our year. :-)

Simples - they desperately need earnings from the 10p a post for their Christmas beer. Expect them to run amuck for a good few hours today and tomorrow.

Capita was one of the 4 awardees of a £500m framework contract earlier this month - link below. THat isn't insubstantial, but since its a framework contract, there is no fixed contract value as these 4 suppliers can bid for chunks of work in the next 4 years. KNowing CPI's capability in the public eduction services space, it could end up being good for us when actual work contracts get bid on and awarded.

https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-h6vhtk-04723b

"Why are there so many people on here with no or so little money invested just willing to put the boot in at every turn. Just incredible"

I'd just ignore these BS spewing timewasters who're paid 10p per post to wear holders down. Low lifes should get what low lifes deserve - total ignorance.

Another tick in the box for contract renewals now!!

"From 2021 peak we're now looking at a 95% drop. I do think S4 represents deep value at this level and with the right team/strategy in place can recover - but anyone believing its specific challenges are all macro related is delusional."

I can't agree more, 404x. The fact that S4 goes down 6% on under a million shares trading volume tells us all that there is to know about this shallow market. Qube opens a new short and now everything's golden for the shorts. The first strategy that the lazy management should adopt is to shift the listing away from this imbecile of a stock market that the UK is.

To learn from Serco - Clear, crisp and concise messaging and forward guidance - not the word morass that we seem to not get out of. It's still continuing from JL's time and I deem that frustrating, bordering on incompetent. I'll pass this on to CPI IR and see if anything comes out of it.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SRP/trading-statement-for-2024-outlook-for-2025-ae4e5d1851w1oa9.html

Government shutdown in the US - that's great for the UK and CPI!!

I don't understand Meekie's desperation in shouting that CPI needs cash - it just doesn't need it, not even to pay the £5/post positive post ransom that Meekie demanded of CPI. Instead he's now off to the Qube sters corner posting to make 1=50p a post to supplement his unemployment benefits. Nothing else justifies his unbridled optimism that CPI needs to raise cash desperately.

It's pointless replying to the lightweight and hence I don't! I'm sure there are plenty on here keen to keep that pointless banter going as he riles up most of the Tory/Reform voters on here! ROFL...

Good luck chaps!!

JG68 - that was a fluffy corporate-speak response from IR. The point about the £30m additional cash outflow is just bonkers vague and is all the more reason why 2 roles in IR is completely pointless.

The £250m cash savings guide was clear enough, but the resulting FCF from the end of 2025 guide was again plain bonkers. What the hell does that even mean? Does it mean we'll be cash flow positive from Q3 onwards? or is it Q4? What qualifies as end of 2025 - that's proper jam tomorrow. How they can miss on FCF guidance from August is beyond me and we're saddled with more cash outflow in H1.

We're now firmly attached to the hip of a recovering UK economy. If the numpties at the top of the Labour government do their job and make the economy thrive, so will we. If they cause business spend pullback in the UK economy with their tax policies, then we'll be stuck between 10p to 18p over 2025, with the final remaining hope being that the £250m cuts will suffice if both government and private spend on outsourcing drops further from here.

THe short answer to the headline in this thread is a resounding 'NO' and any other unbiased notion is fear-mongering. They don't need to as there are not headache style debt repayments coming due in 2025, considering the cash on the balance sheet - there's £30m due by April 25 and $74m due in Jan 25. Cash on hand will take care of that debt and I do hope that Pablo doesn't resort to refinancing that debt - there's zero point in doing that if there's really all that large scale FCF kicking in from the end of 25 onwards (doh). July 26 is the next debt repayment (£50m and $45m), with a bit more in Oct 26, and so there's plenty of time for CPI to show the market that they can really generate sustainable FCF from the end of 25.

I've put to rest any hopes that the SP is going to run away in 2025 unless labour pulls out a stunner and I'm not placing any bets on that. It's just wait and watch time for me until more details come out in March 25.

Poor AimLess and Meekie - Engaging in Psyops and trying to get other posters to not post on this thread with a lovely sounding headline!!! ROFL.

In the meantime - we look forward to the Experience division upside in 2025. :-)

Nah, AimLess and Meekie - There are some key points in the TU that you're missing out - as below. Even with higher margin business like C1 being sold, margins are already improving in 2024, and will improve more in 2025, and get much higher in 2026 as the full benefits of the £250m cost savings are in place.

------------------------------------

For 2024, we expect to deliver a high-single digit adjusted revenue decline, after adjusting for disposals including Capita One, with improved margins driving an unchanged operating profit outlook. In 2025, we expect additional savings to offset the £16m of in-year incremental employers’ National Insurance Contributions costs (£20m on an annualised basis), and to deliver further margin improvement and modest profit growth. The up to £50m additional cash restructuring costs to deliver the up to £250m upgraded cost savings target are expected to mainly impact 1H25 free cash flow.

AimLess - most, if not all, of these are baked into the SP.

True upside from a recovering economy in 2025/26 - that thesis hasn't changed. 15 to 25p range bound for a few months.. I would be fearful of the short - just check-in with FearFul!!!

Exiting lower margin revenue bearing contracts, and with flat revenue forecast now for next year - not a bad outcome. Most of the £50m restructuringcahs costs for 2025 will be H1 loaded. And the bulk of £250m cash savings will be back half loaded. It should be a decent day in the market. Cash impact of NIC costs laid down at £20m, just like a few of us here projected. All in all, sets CPI up for a 30p target sometime in H1 2025 - All, IMO.

This makes for disastrour reading for your short!!! Cost savings now of £250m by the end of next year!! Crikey!!

-- Outlook for adjusted operating profit unchanged for 2024, with adjusted

operating profit margin up c.50bps, largely driven by cost reduction

initiatives

-- Adjusted revenue1 was c.8% lower in the eleven months ended 30 November

2024, owing to exiting lower margin service lines and the impact of

prior year headwinds. Good momentum on cost savings target of £160m,

with £140m annualised savings, now actioned

-- Experience of live projects and data capture creates significant

opportunity to use more AI and generative AI in our service offerings,

enabling cost savings target to be raised to up to £250m by December

2025

"My short was open my goodness like 4 to 5 days ago. Its a high risk asset. I've closed my short when bitcoin hit 99. "

@AimLess - PMSL. Comedy gold at its best!!!

"Just as a side note. Bear cross confirmation is visible imho"

Yes, I noted two bear cubs cross the junction near us. They didn't know what they were doing which isn't a suprise for even a bit, but your confirmation is duly noted AimLess and will be passed on around for the greater good of investing humanity. Please keep this board informed of any such future crossing confirmations. And make sure you take MeekieKeyboard under your wing - I hear he's been yet again tragically been suffering another episode of 'I'm forever wrong and yet no one listens to me'. You're a big tent I hear!!

"@gocpi - I think they will need to cut costs further or offshore to deal with the NI.

@GoCPI - just a little frustrating that we seem to be stuck in the low 17s as trading update approaches. I was really hopeful that we could get nearer to 19p before the big day ..."

@Trisor/@Trenners - They're already doing the offshoring of bits that can be offshored or moving to a Gen AI/ML AI orientated customer service where appropriate with resulting jobs being cut. We've seen stats that the big majority of cost savings is from headcount reduction driven by broadly lower high paying UK employee reduction. THere's certainly a lot of that ongoing in the Experience division. However, I do also acknowledge that the consulting side of business (with Experience) that JL tried to build into a great business is in the pits, and that's clear from the results/guidance from the larger consulting sector players out there (Accenture et all). This is why we've seen large scale HC reduction from XW and AH in the past few months as they scale back those ambitions and focus on core outsourcing at scale backed by Gen and ML AI. I'm positively not expecting gang-busters next week and I'm keeping my expectations tempered. The market is looking for positive tidbits and given how insanely undervalued we are, even a little overperformance on key metrics such as additional cost savings/FCF or relatively low NIC cost impact may help us.

@Trenners - the market is still pretty sceptical on CPI and it still remains a show-me story and hence why they're not marking it up 10-20% in the lead up to tuesday. If you go back to how CPI worked from the FY 22 results announcement in early March 2023 to when the Cyber hack news broke, we could do just as well. THat useless management is now out and we now have more shareholder friendly honchos at the top.

I'd wait for a couple of more update before passing medium to longer term prognostications.

Good luck and stay patient!!!

"gocpi, have you made the purchase u said u were going to make ? ☺️ imho"

aimless - i've been nibbling away. 1.54m and counting, holdings wise. call me too sunnyside-up? maybe, but the investment opportunity in cpi with a shareholder orientated management is too great to ignore, imo. i may swing trade 10 - 20% of this holding if the price action breaks in my favour, but i acknowledge that this is the market we're contending with - thin and subject to massive volatility in a news vacuum.

jo is a swing-trader like you, and i don't pay much credence to his pumping as that's all blatantly self-serving, imo. just as i don't pay attention to either your pumping ( a couple of months ago) or your dumping (as is ongoing now). i eagerly await the day when cpi shoots up 40% and you're caught pants down with your short trade. rofl.. ;-) could it be next tuesday? unlikely, but stranger things have happened. look i wish you well with you btc/eth shorts, but i sincerely hope you get properly shafted with your cpi short. or, next tuesday may just be a non-event - all outcomes are possible. but i know what i want to see - to laugh in glee as i see you getting shafted properly. don't get too ****y, karma is lurking just around the corner!!

Poor AimLess is trying his best to get his short to work. Remember the £160m cost cuts by H1 2025?

4 more days for the update - more like a progress commentary is how I see it. Will it be enough for a 10 -15% up day? That's the big question and clarity on NIC cost hit will be good.

AimLess - you need to beg for your luck from Trumpster -- something tells me he's not in it to help you. ROFL.. :-)