Member Info for GoCPI

What's up, Ekimp? Are you sore that your short is misfiring.

"Can’t even spell celebrate" - this statement is uber rich coming from someone who can't spell 'Buffoon'.

"You are a number one Bafoon" wrote Ekimp literally last week!!! ROFL...

Nice one, Aim. Obviously, some in the market knew about this today and were front-running this chunky extension. However, this wasn't a surprise after Fujitsu's win in late 2023 (they would've replaced Capita) was terminated after the Horizon scandal broke in early 2024. We only have Fujitsu to thank for having shot itself in the foot and handing us this contract after we lost it.

https://www.ukauthority.com/articles/northern-ireland-education-authority-to-further-extend-contract-with-capita/

Nonetheless, a fabulous extension/win for CPI and us lot.

From this FOIA response from Northern Ireland EA, the contract value of £485 was for a 10 year period + extension of 2 years.

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/fujitsu_and_edis/response/2704823/attach/html/4/FOI13976%20response.pdf.html

I'll try and dig into some more details and write back when I've deciphered the extent of this extension value. :-)

"Customers like her as she is customer focussed and delivers. Just look at the steady progress in her division."

The cold, hard fact is that the Experience division has a lot riding on the strength of the UK economy, and not too much with the leader of the division. If and when the Rachel from accounts recognises the idio*cy of her policies and course corrects, and gives this economy a fighting chance to grow, that's when this division has more than a fighting chance to grow. And that's when CPI can get to 2x or 3x of these levels - not until then.

Signed

A pragmatic investor.

@Simpiles - the CTO is still hanging around. That dude seems/looks hard to dislodge.. ;-)

@Trisor - not many, if not any, private sector outsourcing or even a consulting business who are overperforming their growth numbers from H2 2020 through H1 2023. That sector has been shiite since H2 23 and is directly correlated to the economic growth in the UK.

I'd lay the blame squarely on the previous Tory government and the current Labour government for taking the economy down and keeping it there. For all its talk, Labour has proven its incapable of delivering growth as seen in today's GDP data - only a fool would expect a different outcome when you kill business confidence. Until that changes, what would firing Corinne bring to the table for CPI? Zilch!!!

The shiite show in her division at CPI (no thanks to Labour), Corinne at least has the sense to not sell some of her shares to fund the tax/NI liabilities on her nil-cost options. I'm sure her boss forced her hand!!!

Ignore them and spend no time responding to their tripe and the leaches generally drop off.

Of course, that takes a bit of discipline!!!

Kipper9 - I'm nearly past the point where I expect sensible discussions on this board. Meekie baites, and he gets inevitably gets responses. He just knows the responders' trigger points and keeps pressing them for laughs, followed by the inevitable outcome - the feedback loop.

Maybe it's all down to boredom :-)

On another note, I won't be suprised to see a circa £300m goodwill writedown on the balance sheet in FY results, from all those higher cost acquisitions in the past few years. However, there's still a good chunk of equity (albeit mostly goodwill, alas) still on the balance sheet, for whatever its worth, and when the inevitable upswing in business arrives. :-)

I'm ever the optimist.

Martin's laziness to *NOT* move the primary listing of S4 to the NYSE.

@NigeCo - I'd put that down to Martin's laziness to move the primary listing of S4 to the NYSE. There's a lot more disclosures to be made if you're listed there, including quarterly forecasys and they just can't be bothered, even if it means that your valuation increases and your SP is not buffeted around by the minutest of sells!! :-)

On another note, with the ECB cutting by 25bps today, our annual interest costs on the €375m debt (due August 2028) is now lower by €5.6m over this time last year. THat's a nice little bonus. We're likely to see another 50bps drop in the coming months and oil tanking to lows not seen for a few years can only help with the inflation outlook and consequently the economic outlook.

Where are those green shoots? ;-)

"I'm just trying to argue that a company with a smaller no of shares and higher share price value will move as quickly as one with many more shares and lower sp value, makes no difference which is 1 argument old trader is making."

Spot on, JG68.

Assuming that the RS will go through and I can see greater than 90% of shareholders backing this, and if the FCF based turnaround truly sticks as we roll close to end of 2025, we 'could' have the backing of additional institutions to spur the SP on. The range of outcomes for the SP is predicated on CPI nailing the FCF turnaround.

"My own experience from consolidating is that it can vary; done from a position of strength they often work well but from a position of weakness they can be negative. A recent example (which I avoided) was Hemo which did an incredible 400:1 consolidation they’ve since gone on to treat their first patient but have lost 25% in the process"

@broomtree - this is an unbiased/unclouded view of how a SP can react after a reverse split. My gripe was with incorrect facts/maths of how a reverse split works in terms of a few stating that paper losses would go up as soon as a consolidation was executed. I was only calling out that BS.

Whether a companyexecutes a Reverse split from a position of strength or weakness could determine the direction of travel for equity in the near/medium term. And this is more so in the US than here.

A company typically executes a RS to get more institutional coverage than otherwise possible. More so, may institutions may be unwilling (or even unable) to invest in a company's stock that's trading in the low pences. Not so at higher prices. The fundamentals/earnings/debt/EPS - none of these change because of a consolidation/RS. CPI is on the verge of (yet another) turnaround and this time led by serious management team. My assessment, and it's my personal one, is that in the medium to long term it's a net positive for CPI, if they can deliver on their promise to FCF positive from 2026. if they don't, then our investment is in trouble, but that's the situation we're facing.

I'm sanguine and I'll leave it at that.

Good luck.

Trisor - It beggars belief that investors don't know what a reverse split/consolidation is and they start throwing examples of other stock price performance after a reverse split event and how that's always a negative. Nothing could be further from the truth than that tripe. I haven't had the time to read through every single message about this topic, but I skimmed through a few and the level of ignorance/misinformation from a few on here is mind-boggling. Just because you do a reverse split doesn't mean a dilution is in the offing; It could simply be done to get more institutional ownership on board. And not doing a reverse split doesn't mean a dilution is off the table - what prevents Capita from raising additional capital if the business operations/profits fall off a cliff that the only way to survive as a going concern is via raising funds at say 5p? Nothing whatsoever.

I'm particularly bothered that you think I'm arrogant - I know I'm not but also I'm not here to make friends. I'm here to share/receive information about a company I'm deeply invested in and if I find stuff being being posted that makes no or next to no sense, I'll speak up.

Newbie Postieroy from the shortie boiler room pops up with great words of wisdom for us longs!!! We were warned...

"Have I woken in a parallel universe or have I been on the Absinthe?

If you had 1500000 shares that you'd paid 60p for then you spent £900k

And today at 15p they are worth £225k ie 675k less than you paid for them.

Coincidentally the same loss as you're blaming on the maybe baby consolidation....

Give it a rest."

Roguemale - you've stated this far more elegantly than I ever could. :-) Oldtrader1 and other freaked out chappies probably carry baggage from his past holdings that's hard to dislodge . OT1 Quoted SYNT as an example - however the contrast couldn't be more to CPI. SYNT is a manufacturing company coming out of a Covid related boom with excess stock that had to wound down and they made a US acquisition at the peak of the cycle and take on a shiite load of debt and marry that with interest rates, they never go together. I know SYNT caused I traded this in the past and I still have it on my radar. Like I said - Chalk and cheese. But then, all share consolidations are the same, eh?

What's what the lack of basic mathematics though? Could anyone be a serious investor if they don't know that if you buy 45000 shares at 60p and they've dropped to 15p and you now have a paper loss of £20,500. If there is a reverse split and you now have 3000 shares at 225p, you're still sitting on a paper loss of £20,500. For someone to recoup their losses, the share still has to go up 300% to get to break even at 900p, same as it is now to get to 60p from these levels.

Hey ho - but we're all serious investors!!

No worries at all, DarkBlue. I only just wanted the calculation to be clear for us holders.

Good luck.

"If you hold 1.5m shares at 15-1 you will hold 225,000"

DarkBlue - No, you won't. 15 current shares will consolidate into 1 share.

15,000 shares currently = 1000 future consolidated shares

150k shares now = 10,000 future shares.

1.5M now = 100,000 post consolidation.

TM1 - Whether you believe that Schadenfreude is his agenda OR a constant need to be proven right because of his micro penile syndrome OR he's part of a bore holders to death shorting boiler room operation - engaging with him is the oxygen that keeps him going, and thankfully for Meekie there are plenty of willing enablers on this board. ;-)

"

Why are you spending vast amounts of your time analysing a company when you do not own shares, do not want to buy shares, do not want to short, do not work for them or have any other connections and don't get paid to do it. It makes no sense,"

Chaps - stop being gullible. If you truly believe that Meekie has no agenda on the CPI board with his incessant tripe, then I do have a real bridge to sell you. Just saying...