Member Info for GoCPI

"Just need uk and europe to do a deal and Europe and US to sort their teade deals. Should further help imho".

That's broadly correct, but more importantly IMO, we should first focus on a free trade deal with Europe, our largest trading partner. US/Europe deal would be good, don't get me wrong. But for CPI, a deal between UK/Europe that puts us on a path to actual economic growth is massively beneficial to CPI.

I meant to write - " I did say that all reverse splits/consolidations are *NOT* equal and some of those who thought otherwise are finding that out the hard way"

I feel for the chaps who thought they were trading experts who could time their CPI trade - I can AimLess has been engaging with them and calling them out and there's no point in me regurtitating that. But but but, I did say that all reverse splits/consolidations are equal and some of those who thought otherwise are finding that out the hard way. THat's not to say that CPI is one way journey higher, but the noises are starting to look positive. Dumbo is cobbling together some face saving deals with the US' trading partners and that sets up well for a decent H2, should the US avoid a recession.

That is a great setup for CPI as our Experience division has a lot riding on UK/European economic growth. We may just get that in H2 if the Tariff headwinds tail off!!

A small interest payment fact - 2023 interest paid on the €375m term loan was £27m and ditto for 2024. Euribor rates peaked at 4.5% between Sept 2023 and June 2024 when the first ECB rate cuts commenced. With the term loan margin of 3.75% above Euribor, the interest costs were just over €30m (circa £27m).

I'd that'd drop by a third this year, with H2 getting most of the benefit. ECB will cut next month - they've signalled as much. That's a good 2.5% lower in H2 25 than it was at last June. I suspect between a £7m to £9m interest saving this year (H2 loaded, just like the increase in revenues), with more to accrue next year. Get the numtpy's tariff headwinds out of the way you then have a pathway to a decent recovery from mid to late H2 for us. All IMO.

Ditto with you wrote, YIAB.

All the best.

"Still you have to concede that the lack of buying at this levels is not a great sign."

If it matters at all, I bought more today. Lol.. I'm sinking deeper and my cash reserves are dwindling, but I could sell other shares or even some of my government bonds to pick up more at these levels (4% yield)

"opportunity to acquire it for peanuts in a fire sale."

That's BS and smacks of zero understanding of S4's balance sheet. Why would there be a fire sale when S4 is actually generating positive FCF, debt repayment is not due until August 2028? EURIBOR rates are coming down as the ECB is cutting rates and hence interest payments are falling.

H2 revenue ramp is incoming and there will 'finally' be a comparable increase on a like for like basis starting Q3. Again, FCF will be higher than it was in 2024 and that's being low-balled for now. There are questions about revenue numbers in 2025 (I see a decline, tbh), but the job cuts should still keep EBITDA levels and margins in the double-digit range. The upside is if the tariff worries fade into the background and solid global economic growth is back on the agenda.

All IMO and is certainly not based on the SP action we're seeing currently.

ROFL - half a pint was all it took for this nugget of a post.

However lopsided these trade deals are, they're finally being sorted and that can only be good for UK PLC and by extension us. When the numbskull gets around to declaring victory on his 'trade deals' and stop causing any more economic damage, we can finally get to the business of making money on these shallow as f*uck stock market!!

Let's go CPI!!!

Hello NigeCo - Yes, you're right. That's obviously new scope of work that we won with Amazon, delivering incremental revenue from H2 this year.

As long as MS persists with a primary London listing, even with a now expected revenue upturn in 2026 (2025 is a goner, IMO), we'll never be valued close to any sensible metric. MS can't be bothered to turn to a US listing because of the additional overhead that entails - but that's a bigger issue for us, IMO.

Terminal decline - of your mental processing capacity possibl, Jcj07? I can buy into that argument.

There's nothing in today's report that suggests that S4's business is trending in that direction. The UK stock market is in terminal decline and it can't look beyond one single metric, revenue growth, when it comes to remotely valuing a stock price 'correctly' on a sensible metric such EBITDA/EV multiples. Or a FCF multiple.

Whle you moan, I add. Nothing much has changed on that front. ;-)

Here's a line from the presentation today.

"GM/Amazon wins continues to ramp up and will positively impact H2"

It's not just GM, but there's also Amazon in play - not sure about the size of the Amazon deal, but that's a massive positive surely?

I dare say that the stoopid LSE participants priced in a worse update, given there is no downgrade of revenue and EBITDA estimates for 2025 and expected revenues is underpinned by GM kicking in from H2 onwards. If the economic headwinds settle down, and that's still a big 'if' for now with numpty acting like he is, then we could see a substantial upside in Q3/Q4 this year. There are a range of outcomes possible and partly why we're being valued at this levels!!

Silly really if you ask me.

"I have not added myself - even though the update should be solid IMO"

LWHL - I added some more today to my already bloated holdings here. However, I do acknowledge that the LSE is as shiite as they get in terms of market depth, but you play the hand you're dealt. As I already stated previously, I don't see many signs of growth for us in 2025 with the multitude of numpty trumpty's self-inflicted pain in play, but H2 may yet surprise us to the upside. We've been beaten down badly since numpty's tariff war started, but I think his economic team's is seeing the writing on the wall and his numerous climb downs are a testament to the fact that they realise that they are lose-lose game in the near term, possibly longer.

I don't see many surprises in the report tomorrow - we know that GM revenues kick in from H2 and I'd think that by then we'd have settled into a steady growth phase for the US/global economy as the dumpster steps back from the precipice.

That's my base case and we'll know more tomorrow.

"20's range coming to an end and soon we will be on 10's.."

I'll take all those then!!! Millionaire maker at these levels (or lower) for those who look past the near term noise!!! LMAO...LOL again..

@Marcus - to be clear, I didn't direct my post at you. Quite a few came on here speculating that a reverse split meant that there was only way a SP could go, and that was down. It was directed at those 'arm chair analysts'!!

Knock Knock!!! Everyone is a reverse split/consolidation expert who knows which way a SP goes after such an event, until they aren't.

"THG and S4 Capital are the ones discussed here and both tanked.. LOL"

Other than the fact that they've fallen a lot from the peak, no thanks to the magnificent liquidity and depth of the LSE in S4's case, I wouldn't speak of the management teams of the 2 companies in the same breath. I know which one has the best recovery potential and that's where my chips are placed.

"The share premium money can only be used for specific purposes and I am not 100% sure if it's real money or it's simply a balance sheet entry (and the money has already been spent)."

It's not real money - it's an accounting item sitting on the balance sheet and is largely irrelevant from a cash on hand or even cash distributability viewpoint. If that ever mattered, then the market cap wouldn't be sitting at this valuation - the shiite that the LSE has become Brexit not withstanding.

The only thing that matters from herein on is FCF/net earnings/maybe a smidge of revenue growth. Everything else is irrelevant.

Trisor was meant to be going to the AGM and maybe he'll have more to report later today?

Jcj07 - I can't put positive spin on price action when it's hitting all-time lows, can I?

All I can do is nibble some at these levels. We had a price downgrade from Deutsche today with a 37p price target, and that's pushed the price down to these levels.

Having said that, IT spend isn't coming back (yet) this year and nunpty trumpty has dredged up so much uncertainty into the global economic outlook that I can't see how S4 can swim against the tide and keep revenues flat as tech clients ate still a large % of our revenues.

That's the dourest outlook you'll get from me, but there's no real path in sight for revenue upturn in 2025.