Member Info for GoCPI

A final input on this. Working capital management didn't contribute much to the improved net debt at the end of 2024, which is a good thing and shows improving operating trends within the business. As Euribor rates keep dropping from ECB cuts, interest costs will keep dropping over 2025 and that's a small additional positive not currently accounted for in the forecast.

Yes I agree that a buyback at these levels will be very positive. And I hope they can initiate a £20 million buyback when H1 results are announced and the stock price hasn't materially moved up from here.

@NigeCo - Credibility and MildTiger never go together. He's a positional poster and that's that. No backbone to it, but good to see the lightweights squirm, looking at their own trading decisions.

I do see a fair bit of sandbagging with the 2025 revenue forecasts, IMO. My take is that they're forecasting pretty conservatively on that count with the GM kicking in from Q2 onwards and now expected to be a Top-3 revenue customer in 2025 - That's got be a circa £25 to £50m revenue range, if not a touch higher - I'm extrapolating this based on the top-10 customer base giving us circa £335m revenues in 2024, although down from circa £450m in 2023.

If the US economy stabilises from all of the Numpty noises in Q1, we may see a small revenue growth in 2025 - that'll be a very positive outcome for us this year. MS can't see this yet and hence the conservative guidance, even with a uptick in AI related pipeline. It'll be a slow grind upwards for the SP, IMO - until revenue trends become clear.

GLA..

":-) Savage, when will you learn that no amount of your nonsense on this board will more the share price 👍"

Not as long as he keeps getting responses as that's his oxygen!!! Simples.

Nice one, PMH.

I fell off my chair reading this line from the article.

"According to InvestingPro data, Capita trades at a notably low P/E ratio of 3.05, though investors should note the company’s significant debt burden with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.41."

That's a lazy bit of observation/analysis (if I can even call it that) from InvestingPro/investing.com.. Pre-IFRS 16 net debt to equity ratio is 0.33 as of 31/12/24 (££66m net debt) and even accounting for lease liabilities, post IFRS 15 net debt to equity ratio is circa 2.1 (£415m net debt). Anyways, good that the sell-side is waking up to the level of undervaluation here.

I suppose AimLess will be selling out in the next day or two, if she hasn't already.. ;-)

Improved basic earnings, will likely improve more given a lowered cost base in 2025 even if revenues are flat. Guidance for EBITDA and net debt is pretty conservative given lowered operating costs and lower one-off costs for layoffs.

Martin seems to have now pragmatically given up the notion that Trump is the saviour for the US economy as the commentary now states increased economic uncertainty driven by the BS tariff strategy in a highly interconnected world (tradewise). Anecdotally, speaking with others in the tech consulting world both in the US and Europe, business hasn't come back in Q1 and Numpty Trumpty has, if anything, made matters worse for that segment in the US and likely globally.

3% yield is where we're at now. If only MS would consider a primary listing move to the US, we'd be so much better off. We're still 78% revenues in the Americas (possibly 75% in the US - I'll need to double-check). We won't be off to the races on this silly stock exchange given revenue uncertainty and MS has hedged his bets for Q1 calling out tech consulting division weakness driven by lower spend at a key client (American Express). But if Numpty relents, US corporates could get back to investing in tech/marketing spend and help us along. A range of outcomes possible for us here in 2025!!

Wow - confidence in cashflow. Way to go, Martin. Maybe, Finally

RWD - 1msn can't help himself, to our detriment.. ROFL.

"the market only really looking at the current Q1 and any further guidance ... which I doubt will be too different from the current caution .... ..... and in the US ..well... it is far from clear where things are heading with Trump tariffs and general chaos.. ...."

This is about right to me. I honestly can't see much revenue upside at this point in time, but if Numpty can bring himself around to pull back from the Tariff morass, then the US economy (and us) has a realistic chance of outperforming. It's still wait and watch for S4's revenue upturn!

"Repeat repeat repeat."

Until it's not. I'm not sure what can change this dynamic on this amazing, brexit-enhanced stock market, but pinning our hopes on Rachel from Accounts to boost UK's growth dynamics is probably a bridge too far.

A bit of revenue growth is the panacea for all ills on this tripe of a stock market. :-) We just might need a few more quarters/updates for this to pan out. And in the meantime, the head honchos inexorably march towards big chops on one side of the equation, a considerably lowered cost base.

Oh geez - the formal RNS about YE results 2 days ago? We knew about the results coming out on the 24th March about 2 months ago on the 28th January when the YE trading update was released.

This subject headline 'RNS' is downright confusing and not helped by the message content. :-) I read this as there being an RNS today about insider buying which they can't do anyway in a closed period.

OK, yawn!!! Back to sleep then till Monday.

What and where? I don't see any RNS released today!!!

@KGinvest - the potential £175m contract value is for 4 years (2 confirmed years + 2 yearly extensions) and not 2. That's circa £44m revenue per year and it 'could' be circa 10% margin (could be higher too with the increased yearly contract value on a stable cost base - we just don't know yet).

@KGInvest - nope, your understanding is incorrect. Below is what I wrote last night on the £33m extension. That £33m is for the period ending 31/03/2025, and revenue is mostly accrued to the P&L in the recent accounts for year ended 31/12/2024.

"OK, the £546m deal size quoted in the tender is the total value of the deal for Capita since inception in 2012. The initial contract was £350m for 5 years and after a series of extensions, ramped up to £513m as of March 2024. We then received a one-year extension last year valued at £33m bringing the total value to £546m as of 31/03/2025.

I'm not yet sure what the value of the new 7-year extension is, but the 2 links below detail what I wrote above, as well as us having to thank Fujitsu's role in the Horizon scandal for securing this deal for us - presumably at much improved margins than we ever could've realised from the £546m over the past 13 years??

https://www.theregister.com/2024/02/27/northern_ireland_education_capita_deal/

https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/19/fujitsu_pauses_uk_public_sector_contracts/

"

Here's the relevant *snippet* from the tender...

@Simpiles - there is no change to scope - i.e. hardware and software services were in scope in the existing managed services contract. Here's the relevant snipped from the tender.

https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/009957-2025

The continuation of the existing single contractor managed service arrangement which includes the supply of a broad range of computer and related services (including, without limitation, on-going management, operation and maintenance services), information technology consultancy services and the supply of computer hardware, software and associated products.

The overall scope of the services can be summarised as follows:

— a fully integrated end to end service to meet the management/administration and learning/teaching needs of educational establishments,

— ICT infrastructure and associated services for post primary and special educational establishments,

— connectivity to, and provision of a range of online services for all educational establishments.

The systems and services provided via the current contract have been uniquely configured to reflect the varying requirements of the Education Authority.

As I explained in a post last evening - the £546m is total value of the deal to CPI over the past 13 years to 31/3/2025. It was £350m over the first 5 years, presumably accounting for a large setup cost for the service, and then tapering off as our organisation didn't have the commercial acumen or possibly leverage, to negotiate better terms on these extensions.

The first step in any commercial contract extension process is to confirm the extension award. This is then followed up by contract signatures and it is at this point that a contract booking is recognised in the order book for CPI. The notice to extend (was possibly a given) was made yesterday and should be followed by signatures in the coming days. Maybe we'll then get an RNS, but that (RNS) either way it doesn't matter, IMO.

@Trisor, that's a notice to extend from the NI EA that came out yesterday, and is not yet signed, presumably and hence not RNS'able until set in stone? It's 4 years at circa £44m/year, and way better than the past 3 extensions (£113m for 5 years in 2017, then £50m for 2 years in 2022, and then last year for £33m for one year).

Whenever the RNS comes or even if not (personally I couldn't care less if there's no RNS), the direction of travel from this extension is clear - we're not interested in low margins renewals. And that's fundamentally important to share holders!!!

@Simpiles - that makes sense since the Fujitsu contract termination was announced in November 2024 and CPI was almost at the end of their extension term till end of March 2025. It was interesting that CPI and TCS pulled out of the contract - do you know if this was over the commercial terms/construct of the new procurement tender?

Either way, gone are the low cost extensions under Jon Lewis - £50m for 2 years in 2022 (£25m annual revenues) and £33m for the one year in 2024. If the extension value now is £175m for 4 years, that's a good £44m annual revenue number and margins will certainly be much better. That's the only way to go!! Good on you, AH & Co.

I don't yet see this as a win, but a notice for a 7 year modification/extension that is certainly coming to us. The value of the extension is not known as far as I can see, but some market participants probably know? And this is why shorts could be dropping their pants!!

You only need to look at Ekimp - PMSL!!

Be scared, Ekimp. Be very, very scared - we're coming to get you shorts!!!

OK, the £546m deal size quoted in the tender is the total value of the deal for Capita since inception in 2012. The initial contract was £350m for 5 years and after a series of extensions, ramped up to £513m as of March 2024. We then received a one-year extension last year valued at £33m bringing the total value to £546m as of 31/03/2025.

I'm not yet sure what the value of the new 7-year extension is, but the 2 links below detail what I wrote above, as well as us having to thank Fujitsu's role in the Horizon scandal for securing this deal for us - presumably at much improved margins than we ever could've realised from the £546m over the past 13 years??

https://www.theregister.com/2024/02/27/northern_ireland_education_capita_deal/

https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/19/fujitsu_pauses_uk_public_sector_contracts/