Member Info for GoCPI

Sounds right to me, Voli.

Cash inflows from the normal course of operations - trying to manage such inflows towards the end of a HY or a FY, and the unpredictable nature of it and the impact it could have on net debt at the end of these 2 key reporting periods. THis is why Pablo was taking about taking a more normalised approach to working capital management (AP and AR) so that FYE and HYE net debt numbers are smoother versus being too lumpy and thus adding undcrtainty around more accurately forecasting that net debt number.

If I objectively look at it, we're still in a jam tomorrow scenario (2026), albeit one where we know there are circa £250m costs taken out of the business, with £140m already realised at the end of 2024. Circa £200m Equity on the balance sheet after a £75m goodwill write-down in 2024 is nothing to be scoffed at though. However, the big question and the uncertainty for the market is, I suppose, when will the £100m cash investments in the Gen AI space in 2024/25 be monetised and would it lead to positive revenue outcomes for the business = higher margin on a lowered cost base?

if this is proven then we will rerate meaningfully. But it will be a slog until then - All IMO.

I like Pablo's candour and responses on the call - unlike the disingenuous Weller and JL. He's pushing to deliver the majority of the additional £90M cost cuts in H1 this year. And he talked about the challenge of predicting FCF with an example of £50m cash inflows just in the past week. :-)

Where was he all this time? Oh wait, JL was posturing and pontificating that the restructuring was COMPLETE. Goodness me.

With an adjusted EBITDA of £188m and a sustained reduced cost base in 2025, there is zero justification for the stock price to be trading at these distressed levels of less than 1.5 times EBITDA.

Apart from the shiite UK market depth since Brexit that I regularly complain about (a gigantic self-goal if there ever was one), the shiite growth in the economy is playing a part in reducing revenue growth visibility for us. And our current government just talks a good talk without really doing anything to help businesses grow, nay makes it more burdensome on them by raising employment taxes.

All of the above will take time to work through and I don't expect any miracles in 2025, but maybe a firmer trajectory could be visible in H2 this year. The vast majority of the net cash outflow this year is driven by the restructuring costs of laying off a tonne of people and that's seen in the eNPS dropping in 2024, and will drop more this year - but it's a necessary step in getting CPI to a robust standing by the end of 2025.

If only our silly government can get us on a path to economic growth, we'll be well on our way to a robust uplift in the SP in 2026. And if the trajectory becomes clear later this year, we could have a sustained breakout in the back-end of this year. However, its a waiting game to see if Labour can indeed be the government of Growth - I'm not holding my breath though.

@Tren - and mine will reduce to circa 110k. 20% trading position and the rest to await better returns/outcomes in 2026. I'd think we'll be in a trding range between the current 12p to 22p over 2025 until more clarity is had on cost progress and new wins over 2025. Fingers crossed.

15:1 share consolidation incoming as its one of the motions to be tabled in next month's AGM. It'll be approved no doubt, and is a positive, IMO.

Meekie laddie can't read the trading room, let along numbers. So much pointless chest thumping when your financial literacy is next to zero is something to behold!!

Maybe we continue a slow and steady path up to £300m market cap in the coming days!!

@Trisor - AimLess will exit in the next 2 days - So, no she won't be attending the AGM.

It looks pretty decent, but not for this silly market to break out of the teens, as Aimless was praying for and suggesting..

" AH is our golden ticket - of that I'm certain - it's just whether the ticket pays out tomorrow or in August or in March 2026.

Of course I'm bound to be bullish holding so many shares into results 😜"

Trenners - I'd say him and the impactful management team under him that can make the difference - Xenia and Pablo in particular. Lots more redundancies incoming in 2025 and that's good, but some clarity

1. Revenue projection for 2025 (stated previously in December as will be broadly similar in 2025 in comparison to 2024. Do they have any more clarity now?

2. FCF projection for 2025 will be helpful, but CPI almost always never release this metric in their guidance - all we know for now is the £50m restructuring cash costs number in 2025. If they break precedence and give us a forecast for 2026 even on a flat revenue basis for next year, that's a bonus, but is probably a bridge too far.

As a P&L/Balance sheet bonus, we will see a nice non-core income bump from the C1 sale and the market loves those kind of headlines. And the book value on the balance sheet will be greater than the market cap as of today. I'd wager this is a given.

9 and half hours before the big reveal tomorrow. :-) GLA....

"Nobody here is plotting S4's demise. Let's save the conspiracies for another board. This isn't a football match where we have to take sides."

404 - maybe you aren't part of the 'some of you lot'? It's not about taking sides in a football match - a silly anology that when I was responding the Flatlined one for this tripe.

"Everyone except retail investors won't touch this with a barge pole. (and the worlds longest barge pole at that).

Also another 4 years of labour = this will not survive.

Lots of companies waiting to buy the parts of this company very cheaply when it goes belly up."

I was pointing out that what labour means gob shiite for S4 and that its is clearly NOT going belly up when debt levels are dropping and there is a clear pathway for net debt to be well below £100m by the end of 2025. The flatlined was clearly fear mongering looking for a cheaper buy-in knowing that on this shiite exchange stock price movements can be influenced easily by pump/dump on message boards.

I don't disagree with your views below though as Martin can't be having it both ways. They've set up initial guidance for 2025 at 'meh' levels (flat on 2024 levels) in their January update and if it does deteriorate more from 2024 levels, then it does mean we're in the middle of a US recession - maybe the recovery from there is what will reset S4's SP trajectory?

"Felt it was quite a bold statement given the potentially destabilising impact of some of Trump's policies, but Sorrell couldn't have been clearer there. So if he later on reverses this position and blames future underperformance on some aspect of US policy, I'll know he's really been taking the p*ss."

"Also another 4 years of labour = this will not survive."

FlatLiner - you obviously have no clue about S4's operations. 80% revenues from the US - what Labour does or doesn't do has no impact on S4's 'survival'. Decipher US growth trajectory driven by their economic policies and you can plot S4's demise (or not).

Whilst some of you lot are plotting S4's demise, I'm selling a few of my other stocks and will accummulate here. Your poison is my nectar - Lol!!!

Chaps - The UK stock market is unfortunately the absolute opposite of what a market should be under the 'Efficient Market' hypothesis. Many players have moved out to the continent and algos run riot. SP action isn't really reflective of a company's potential performance or real value. I get the market/algo's obsession with 'revenue growth' as that's the only metric that seems to correlate with higher stock price movements, and everything else (such as potential massive cost cuts here) seem to fall to the wayside.

I can't say if Wednesday's update would bring a bit of succour to the SP, but I'm adding some in anticipation. I can only look at the stock performance in the past few weeks of Videndum where the SP was mercilessly hammered down to 28p on purely rumours and 'misanalysis', and is now at 85p, and still way undervalued. We sit squarely in that bracket. The easiest way (95% of the time, might I add) to make money in the UK market is to short shares with no consideration for value or outlook for performance. None of that matters - only revenue growth does.

I despair at the state of our markets and our current government talks a good game, and only that!!! Could the UK economy finally grow after a few dreadful years as that may be about the only real saviour for the majority of UK listed firms?

"Laughable mate, all your arguments about S4 thriving in 2025, all falling apart like a cheap suit!"

Not nearly half as much as your incessant tripe about this being a dog as soon as the SP starts falling - when all it takes on this market for the price to fall is a smidge of selling by algos. I've always said S4 shouldn't be listed on the LSE when their revenues are 80% US based and of course I put that on Martin.

But neither you or I can yet call S4's business trajectory in 2025. It could swing between slightly up to slightly down this year, and with a lowered cost base, that's a net positive for earnings. The upside is if numpty trumpty can indeed unleash animal spirits in the US and that could give us revenue upside in 2025. 2 down years when there is no recession is unusual and odds are good that it won't be 3 in a row. WPP had a weaker Q4 and we had an inline Q4 and that tells a tale.

"Sadly, it looks like S4 is going nowhere. I know I have said it many times before but the landscape has truly changed. The evidence is all too clear. I am a shareholder here but I have last all hope for this company."

Good, we'll need more people to throw in the towel and actually put the money where their mouth is.. ;-)

@AimLess - all of the below were still true when you were 'short' and you were spreading doom and gloom on here. And now that you're caught on the long side of the trade you're now pumping this? You're very agenda less, eh?

Added some today in my trading position and will add more in the coming days leading up to next Wednesday. Do I smell a smoking good quarter, a la the March 2023 results announcement. Yes, I believe so, with cost cut clarity and clear direction of travel for FCF generation, I'm optimistic that we'll be at the beginning of a long journey back to March 2023 levels. And I'll take that as a great starting point for CPI with new leadership now embedded into a clear path of profitability for CPI. Any boost from GDP leading to higher revs will set us finally for a real turnaround - not the Jon Lewis one !!!

"- Debt level to be at minimal level

- I expect profit to be better than 2023 for number of reasons:

- No cybercost

- no major disposal cost

- 900 redundancies cost saving from Jan 2024

- pause In bonuses and wage rises in 2024

- cost reduction programme increase from 60m in jan to 160m in June 2024 some of the benefit I 2024"

I'd put my money anyday in SFOR over THG. Apart from the fact that THG is in a cr*ap sector, it is majority revenue generating from a moribund economy vs >75% revs from the economy to be in - i.e. the US. The THG CEO has a beef with the hand that feeds it (the market and it's participants), instead of focusing on delivery and execution to enhance SH value.

It's been 3 crap years for the Digital Ad and Tech services sector, but 2025 could finally be the inflection year for these sectors in the US - that's what matters for S4 and will, IMO, drive outperformance in 2025. Let's not forget the fact that S4 now has a considerably lower cost base nowthan in the past few years - no doubt driven by negative growth, but the end in that respect is nigh.

@AimLess - I may nibble at this today. WG isn't PFC in my books!!

"Secondly this is really bad news to be fair."

I'm not sure it is. Of course nervous nellies will think it is and sell, but what do we know about the profitability of the contract? SRP's stock price literally had no movement yesterday after their win announcement and that tells a big story about potential margins on that contract.

And all of the negative press has probably done CPI no favours on this front. A couple of more years of revenue on this front whilst Bailey's rate cuts hopefully deliver some confidence to the UK economy, labour not withstanding.

GLA..

Poor Meekie, still trying to stay relevant as the master economist on this board. PMSL..