Member Info for GoCPI

"I still remain net negative overall on CPI though, as this global turbulence is going to make the turnaround effort even more difficult. The many challenges for CPI are collectively gargantuan!"

Sav - not nearly as gargantuan as companies that are directly impacted by numtpy dumpty's trade policies. I despair at the prospects of UK's exporting companies who have a large footprint in the US, and I don't think that Keir's brown nosing of numpty will help them much. CPI thankfully has no such encumbrance to the US markets. It will be a slow grind through the rest of 2025 until the cash flow trajectory is known to the market - that's my base case. But then we could win a couple of large outsourcing deals in the UK/Europe, or keep up the rate of renewals/win additional contracts at existing customers, and we could then be off to the races.

A lot to look forward to, IMO.

"It would be amazing if they showed adjusted FCF as at the half year results. AHEAD OF SCHEDULE."

Given that there is plenty of redundancy expenses that are H1 loaded for 2025, this isn't a realistic scenario. Assuming the circa £250m cost cuts are sorted by the end of 2025, then FCF from 2026 onwards will be realistic. And if we do somehow get a revenue growth boost, then FCF is easily sustainable too.

The depth of the UK markets being as tripe as it could ever get in the past few years, and I won't labour on why this is so, it isn't a surprise that the share price here keeps getting buffeted around on no news, and doesn't go up even on good news days.

Touche, and agreed. As long as the conversation is not about great Numpty is, I don't think we'll ever need to have another.

@Trisor - Brown nosing and getting gaslight (perpetually) must feel real good. 'Negotiating Ply' - my backside.

Both the bond and the stock market were screaming a recession if the numpty didn't backtrack, and quickly. And so he did!!! The only thing he was plying was lunacy.

Caused plenty of losses along the way for the weak hands too!!! I really hope the loony doesn't backtrack yet again.

"problem is many on here who thought CPI would be £1 a share are those who also have backed the Donald and the Farage too... plus they've been Truss defenders!"

Sav - Right, and I don't really these political views expressed by some on this board should be the driving force for you to constantly harangue the board with negative views on CPI just to rile them up. Numpty, Farage, Truss are all imbeciles riding the coattails of the current nationalistic fervour which has been the flavour of the past decade and half since the GFC of 2008.

For the record, I think CPI has a long, long way to go in terms of operational improvement before we can even start remotely considering £1 targets to the SP. 30p would be an amazing start, IMO, but the market wants to see tangible improvments in financials before any rerate. And this is coming from someone who has a substantial holding here (1.6m + shares) and of course, nursing paper losses. I like the management and hence I'm keeping the faith.

Numpty's global macro environment isn't helping us, but that can't last forever. And CPI will be a survivor - we're not in dire financial straits that many other companies in the UK are, we're cutting costs bigly, and we'll pull through and thrive on the other side of this Numpty manufactured recession. All IMO.

Meekie - As I said the other day, all these points have been dissected to death here and are all reflected in the stock price (and more). What's hammering the stock price now is the global trade war that numpty dumpty has unleashed on all of US' trading partners and we've got caught up in it - I acknowledge that there could be some more side effects from cratering private sector demand if a global deep recession does materialise. This is seriously being priced in by the market and not even US treasuries (supposed safe havens) are being spared. If the MAGATs thought that this was all part of a grand plan to bring down rates, the opposite is happening now and higher inflation is now being priced in by the market.

For those who wonder about the relevance of Numpty's policies on CPI, of course there is plenty of relevance. Would you rather talk about 5 minute stock price movements? China is not backing down and they're digging in for the long haul.

Who'll blink first? Whoever feels the pain the most and that'll be the US. A likely scenario now is a combination of large market falls resulting in the Fed doing an emergency rate cut and bond buying in the coming days, numpty pulling back from the brink against EU and other countries except China by calling out silly wins in his senile mind - he can fight China, but not in tandem with the rest of the China as that'll kill the US consumer and take the economy down very quickly and with it, us too. The fed actions should bring some stability to the markets and to our SP. Till then, we'll still be thrown around by the market moves.

A mild US recession is now all but a reality with job losses incoming. The upside to this is that the BOE will also now cut rates and that should boost our economy in H2. Good for CPI. Multiple factors at play here and the only good outcome is one where Numpty pulls back from the tariff abyss.

The low-IQ ignoramus can't still comprehend that its the US consumers who'll pay for this. Dow 1400 points up to flat now - says it all.

Nice one, PC. I'm wasting far too much time engaging with MAGATs on the vices of Tariffs - their world view is far too different from mine. :-)

Other than costing us quite a few quid on the way down for stocks, not much might change. Fingers crossed though

Spot on, Daltry. Therein is the fundamental problem with the US Reindustrialisation ambitions of Numpty Trumpty. Assuming they somehow do this, the price of goods in the US will be dramatically higher and would the US consumer really want that? The answer is likely a resounding no. And these global tariffs have a upward effect on prices for US consumers too - this is what MAGA conveniently ignores.

As an aside, why does Meekie keep referring to Trump as your man? ;-) He obviously thinks you're MAGA acolyte - ROFL..

@Trisor - it doesn't need much enlightening. It just needs someone to step outside the MAGA echo chamber.

The issue here is 2-fold.

1. Numpty has started a global trade war that has massive repercussions for all economies around the world given that the US has moved away from a manufacturing economy to a consuming economy.

2. EU/UK stil produce quality goods like automobiles/semis that are in huge demand in the US, and not vice-versa. As I think it was Culley who said this, no one really wants US made cars. Trade deficits will persist because of the volume, value, and directions of goods flow.

There are tariffs that could be looked at of course and even if tariffs were brought down to ZERO on both sides, it won't change the deficit dynamic much as US will keep importing than they can export. Then what? You can't force countries to keep importing unwanted goods to balance the trade - that has to be a function of demand.

Numpty thinks that he can use huge tariffs as a weapon to force all exporting countries to balance the trade. That's an absolute shi*ite approach and impacts both parties. Recession as a near-term consequence is a given outcome, and higher prices for US consumers is another (either because traiffs add costs OR because reshoring manufacturing will mean higher production costs).

Global tariffs/trade wrs made the great depression of the 30s a lot worse than they should be. And those tariffs pale in comparison to what Numpty has put on the table now. I'm sure he'll pull back, put on a brave face for his MAGA clueless and claim victory when any 'achievement' much would've been marginal at best. And all this at the risk of creating a unneeded recession in the US and across the world.

"1. The US has 37 trillion of debt

2. It needs to refinance 16 trillion in 2 years

3. China’s trade surplus is unsustainable for the US with that type of debt

4. The debt is exponentially increasing

5. This could all be solved by everyone agreeing to no tariffs or much lower tariffs. Let the consumer decide.

6. It seems to me all Trump is looking for some sort of reciprocity so why aren’t the other countries looking to do deals? Oh, they are now including the EU.

7. Is it really in US’s interests to make Chins stronger allowing it to grow stronger. It’s called the China Communist Party for a reason"

I despair at the line of thinking that trade deficits = fiscal deficits (which drives higher debt), which is the thrust of Trisor's messages above. Debt is created by the Government spending more than its income, and the US government is running up enormous annual debts because their spending is out of whack with their revenues (Taxes in various forms, including tariffs). Higher revenues via tariffs isn't a good thing when used across the board as numpty is going now - it will very quickly dampen consumer spending as prices rise across the board. THat's the danger of these all-out tariffs in play now.

Numpty keeps saying to the MAGATs that he's taking billions of dollars off exporters like China, EU with these tariffs. What utter tripe - these are taxes being paid by US importers on the value of goods being imported. And the importers will inevitably have to pass these import tax (tariff) increases either partially or wholly to consumers - who does he think this will impact the most? It's lower and middle class consumers whose interests he claims to look out for.

The only aim of these tariffs could be to be force these surplus nations to buy more from the US, but what could the likes of poor nations like Vietnam with a circa $100b surplus want to import from the US to balance the trade side of things? THey're invested in supplying the US consumers the goods they need at the lowest possible price to them to keep living the American Dream!!!

If the US needs to cut debt, then they really need to look at

1. Dramatically grow the economy and take in higher taxes.

2. Cut spending, more so on Social Security and Medicare. No one wants to touch these however.

The boogeyman is trade deficits though and apparently balancing the trade will solve the debt issues that ail America?

"What is your thinking in saying 'Brilliant from Trump' ref the 50% tariff threat on China?"

I could answer that, Prof. On second thoughts, best not to as I've had one prickly post in already!!

"NY is less volatile today (so far) so hopefully settling down and BAU resumed in a few days/week or so, at least I hope so as used some of my ISA allowance to buy a O&G company with no business in the UK."

TerryM1 - /today's trading action was entirely predictable and I'd called this yesterday. We're by no means out of the woods, this small upswing may last a day or two without tangible progress on these silly, indiscriminate trade wars.

I'm not a fan of China. I'm also not a.fan of rabid MAGA cluelessness about how the structural imbalances in the US as that has been a high consumption economy at low prices, something that was enabled by. China as a low cost production base. If dumbo wants to change that paradigm, he'd be better served by 1. not starting a global trade war first that guarantees a recession with big job losses, tanking markets and lower wealth. Dumbo doesn't need the dems to remind him that he's that remarkable president responsible FOR 2 recessions in his 2 terms - this one entirely self-inflicted.

Who's going to suffer the most from his, it's the Americans, including the MAGATs that voted him in.

We'll.see if better sense prevails, but highly unlikely.

Critical thinking and reasoning aren't exactly MAGATs strong points.

You can't make this sh*iite up. The economic genius is apparently considering suspending all non-China tariffs for 90 days.

Is it any wonder that business are unable to run their business to make money, on the back of these daily soap operas from the id"iots at the White House?

I've lived through so many of these carnages that I won't give up hope on a short-term bottom today. If not today, tomorrow it is.

CPI holding up better for now for my aforementioned reasons I'd think - low/nil degree of exposure to US exports and high degree of exposure to the UK government. Plus think of all the Telcos in the UK/Europe who use our services - that's a good sector to have your exposure to.

I can't say this will stick, but we can hope nonetheless!!!

For some light reading as we're waiting for the carnage to subside..

Firstly, about the genius that is DJT. My oh my, isn't he such a god-send.

https://studyinternational.com/news/trump-student-wharton/

And back to the business world, US CEOs are staring down the barrel and are seeing what the brown nosers can't.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/trump-recession-inflation-job-losses-coming-ceos-say-cnbc-survey.html

Meeks - you seem to have some unobfuscated views of the damage that trade wars will do to global economies broadly. I suggest your time is better spent on identifying actual sectors/stocks that can be brought down a lot more than their current trading levels, and give up on this unhealthy obsession with CPI's downfall? ;-)

If CPI will fall further from these levels, it stands to reason that with an incoming global recession because of numpty's clueless policies that his brown-nosers think are the best thing since sliced bread, then those stocks with a export bias to the US or with a high degree of sensitivity to GDP growth and with a distressed balance sheet, will be the right targets.

If you want to pick on brown nosers on here, do so and I might occassionally join you though purely on policy/outlook. LOL..

"but then again.... maybe it has always been coming ?...lol

"Trump’s professor thought he was his ‘dumbest student’ ever "

"

Lol - what an absolute numpty.

US CEOs are currently quite pessimistic about the trajectory for the US economy if the current policy continues, but maybe numpty will see the light and pull back, even if just that bit. However, some of the big hedgies think that any rally is something to sell into as a recession could put a 30 to 40% dent, peak to trough, in the S&P. We're still ways away from those levels.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/trump-recession-inflation-job-losses-coming-ceos-say-cnbc-survey.html

Agree with that, YIAB. THe biggest concern now is with the scale of tariffs and if that'll unleash a US recession. Trade wars via tariffs are never economically good and the longer this drags, the worse the impact will be on the US economy and by extension, the global economy. MS didn't see this coming, and neither did most of the US business leaders, let alone politicians around the world.

The consolidation is happening whether CPI falls or rises another 10 or 20% from these levels - I'm not sure what the relevance is.

What is of relevance is if the clueless numpty in the White house will put out a backing down statement today? Maybe some more stock market pain is in order before such an action is delivered, but hopefully not far off now given this strong deflationary spiral since Liberation Day - who'd have thought??