RE: Reduces net revenue expectations5 Jun 2025 18:59
BrokeNSmoke - I get the much bandied about bear thesis that Ad Agency of Record phenomena is all but dead because of Meta Ads AI engine and so on, and that tech spend will never come back, but the reality is far more nuanced. Whilst the rise of Gen AI is changing the content creation paradigm in the ad agency world and how'd they previously charge on an hourly T&M basis, that model is shifting to an output based, slowly but surely. And for all S4's mishaps by placing most bets on the tech sector, you can't accuse them of sleeping at the wheel. They've been at the forefront of leveraging AI on the content side of things and the wins outside the tech sector are piling up. When that'll translate to YOY FY revenue growth is a question mark, but I like the fact that possibly Q3 and certainly Q4 is the inflection quarter from YOY growth comparatives viewpoint is a big step in the right direction.
GM revenues will start accruing from Q3 and additional Amazon revenues too. Bring on T-Mobile that will ramp up in the coming quarters and that'll add more certainty to their forecast predictability. I like the fact that Robot Mary is out as the CFO and a seasoned Ad Industry CFO from WPP and Publicis subsidiaries is now our CFO is most welcome.
It was unfortunate that Martin bet the house on the tech sector and after the initial sugar rush of 2020 through 2022 when this tech client dominated approach was vindicated and his acquisition spree got us to where we got to, that quickly wore off and we couldn't pivot to non-tech sectors as much as we'd like to as shareholders. The big tech clients are still on a massive capex spending spree (we know who the chief beneficiary here is) on AI infrastructure - I get that it's Martin self exculpatory rationale for the dropoff in revenues in 2023, much bigger last year and still continuing in H1 this year, but for all the previously stated reasons (GM/Amazon/T-Mobile revenues + First America loss wearing off from Q3), we stand a more than fighting chance of revenue growth turnaround from Q3.
Only a dog-shiite market like the LSE would value companies at these pitiful 2X EBITDA valuations for a FCF generating company like S4 is and if there's one piece of advice I'd give to Martin - get the f*uck out of an LSE primary listing. Wise has jumped ship just today and they're not even a US majority revenue earning business.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/uks-wise-move-primary-listing-us-2025-06-05
However there's that piece of financial nugget that S4 will be hit with over Q3 and Q4, and that's a strong GBP versus USD. Even though on a like for like basis, S4 is calling for say a 5% revenue decline, on a reported revenue basis, revenues will likely be down closer to 8 - 10%. It wouldn't affect profitability margins as majority of costs are also in USD.
I don't disagree that I've been too optimistic a tad too early for this amazing stock market, but I'm willing to take the other side of the bear trades.