Member Info for GoCPI

Only £7, Kipper? And you think you're a serious ramper? Call me a.cynic, but you really need to up your game..

Let's get Ekimp to partner with you - that's my suggestion!!

Moving on - it's great to see that level of transparency from Pablo.. I suppose some IIs were wanting this to spot the problem child, but fab nonetheless.

And what's even more apparent looking at that segment breakdown for H1 24 is how shiite the performance of the contact centre business is. Minimal ebitda on a £340m revenue headline and that's pointing the obvious that was apparent in FY 24 report... That is a problem child. The regulated business is a cash leaker too, even though headline profitability is decent. These 2 need to be fixed quick and it'll be good to see how they're trending on these metrics, in about 5 weeks time.

Corinne, for a change, has not sold her shares to fund the tax liabilities on her restricted stock 2021 award that vested per the RNS today. THat's a whole lot different to what she was previously doing (selling some shares to cover tax liabilities) and speak volumes about wider management conviction in this emerging real turnaround.

Shorts are getting ready for mucho BDSM X 10 levels of pain...Bring it on we say, and watch them suffer!!!

Just to throw it in there that we're in the award mix for Ken Council HR Support services tender. We're in the frame for Lots 1 (HR Admin/payroll) and 2 (HR advisory services), along with a few others and the 'expected' framework value is £175m over 4 years.

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2025/W26/849347037

My take - it's simply a fool's errand trying to predict daily/weekly/monthly price levels; No one knows and it's a simple function of demand/supply that moves the SP in a certain direction - it's simple enough to state, but one that still leaves prognosticators mystified. Enjoy the run up (in this case), watch your returns grow or take profits as you see fit, but the direction of travel (for us) beyond a day's trading levels is simply a function of the progress being made by Capita to right the ship and get us to sustained proftability and FCF generation.

IMO, the market is trying to price the share away from distressed levels, maybe through help from a new buyer or buyers, to one where the sustained profitability goal is in sight. That is what will get us to meaningful share price returns in the short to medium term. And that's what I'm personally holding out for. I don't personally care if we retrace 10% from here or go higher by more in the near term, but the setup looks pretty bullish if you ignore the daily trading noise.

MildTiger projects his monopoly winnings on to this board - the likes of him are best left ignored and they eventually disappear when no one pays attention and retorts/comments back to them. You have characters like these on almost every company board.

It feels like the tide is shifting in the global markets and assuming that Numpty Trumpty doesn't do any more damage to global trade and growth perks up in the US in Q3/Q4 (Q2 is already set to be a very good number recovering from the April chill driven by tariffs), then we could genuinely see a nice revenue recovery in H2. The LSE is pricing this stock as a distressed company when it is anything but.

Net debt will likely be closer to £50m when the time for refinancing comes around in H2 2027, and with EURIBOR rates still trending lower, we'll get favourable refi terms too. But the biggest turnaround driver here is when ad as well as tech consulting spend comes back in earnest - we won't have too long to find out if that inflection point is H2 2025.

S4 is placed in an ideal with an early pivot to Gen AI driven creative content creation solutions, flexible pricing, and backed by an uber strong technology practice leveraging real-time data insights to deliver the kind of ROI that CMOs know is possible. When that will show up in the numbers is the big question mark.

A good summary read on how Gen AI is impacting speed of content generation as well as related costs, the anxiety among agencies and what opportunity that holds for the sector going forwards.

https://www.adweek.com/agencies/a-tale-of-two-cannes-ai-optimism-masks-ad-industrys-existential-crisis/?

There are a couple of important quotes in there - see below. We're doing well on that count pivoting to generating revenue based on content usage coupled with FTE retainers - these kind of a model will probably become a lot more mainstream in the coming quarters.. New Golden era for advertising - could we be one of the first to take advantage of this phenomenon? This is what the market is waiting to see.

But it’s not all downside. Though Jones believes that “AI will be how 100% of all content is generated within five years,” he said “if you’re the best at [using AI], you’re going to be in a business that’s growing really fast.”

“There will be opportunity, but it’s going to mean huge changes,” Sorrell said, forecasting a “new golden era.”

@Kipper9 - there are plenty of factors to take into when considering stock markets valuations.

1. Operating margin/profits is an important financial health indicator, but NOT a stock market valuation indicator. You'll need to get net profit level profitability post taxes (adjusted is OK too) before we can start doing comparisons with the likes of Serco. Management was guiding for OP. Margin at circa 7% mid-point of guidance range. To get to 260m op margin, we're looking at circa £3.8b revenues and from where we are now, it's nigh-on impossible to get there in 2 years - IMO.

We'll take a while to get closer to SRP's valuations with the current peformance metrics..

2. Free cash flow generation - we're just not there yet to justify valuations closer to SRP. They've been at > £200m for a couple of years now.

3. Dividend paying - again not there yet, but if 2 can be achieved, we'd then close to doing so.

4. Revenue growth - an important metric for the market and we haven't done that for a few HYs now.

You sort out these issues and our stock price could be multiples from these levels - but that's a good 18 to 24 month before we get there, IMO.

"Fca investigating wood group 🫣"

Oh dear, Wood is CPI's largest customer, spent more than a billion quid with us last year. The relevance of Wood group on this board can't be overstated.

What do we do now? Are we falling to 8p next week?

Et voila - we just hit that milestone a few minutes ago. Congrats, holders!!

I did almost laugh Kipper9 off when he said 300p by the end of this week. Apologies, Kipper and you give it where its due - forget 300p, we may be hitting a new 52-week by the end of this week.

@Trisor - no, I didn't and thanks for spotting this. And this is why this MB is really important to get us some of the missing details - even though we bicker over Trump and a few other petty bits, and it gets bitter on the odd occassion. :-) Broadly speaking, the collective whole is a lot more potent and than a singular view.

I'll have to go with you what you've saying for a few days that there is a buyer who's loading up. Our shallow market leads itself easily to swing in either direction based on a background buyer/seller, and this could be what's happening now. Maybe there is a leak on significant progress in margins/contract wins that pushing these buyers to buy now, but this is sustained buying since the RS concluded a few weeks ago and that's what makes me believe that this move will last a while yet. There will be profit taking in between, no 2 ways about it, but the momentum has firmly shifted to the upside!!

All very good for us and makes the 35 degree heat on Monday next week a bit more bearable!! ROFL..

Good luck to us longs!! Its about time.

"6+ month high @329.50 and a possible golden cross"

The golden cross happened a few weeks prior. We're now at circa 1% below 52-week highs - well above the golden cross levels.

"If Heineken did weekends RNS to drop this pm on massive contract wins" Are you already on the tipple, Trisor? :-) I'm on a cold glass of vino in the garden and couldn't stop grinning ear to ear.

I'm sure this won't happen, but the fact that CPI has run up this much without that kind of support is a great sign. :-) A new buyer in town and I'm aligned with that line of reasoning..

We'd hope and certainly wish so, HeatSeeker. Obviously AH and team have had a previous tranche of RSUs handed out last year that would vest in 2027, but that's still a fair time away from an investing timescale - you'd hope certainly more than enough time for that team to solidify this turnaround. Not the kind of turnaround in which you had JL cry out loud that 'Turnaround was done' (this was probably in the HY 2022 update/release - a good 3 years ago), only for the market to release that no such thing was accomplished and we plumbed the depth with new all-time lows.

I know I'm bleating on about this, but the contrast between this shareholder value delivery focused management team and the DEI focused JL-led management team couldn't be starker.

We're circa 3% away from new 52-week highs!! Baby steps, fellow holders. :-) However, a good weekend with plenty of tipple and sun beckons.

Thinskinned HHH strikes again. I certainly won't blowing smoke up your backside, laddie. Hopefully you'll find someone on here who will and reinforce your sense of self-importance - no more pointless references/posts from me to you after this! You can keep going though now that I can see that your fat ego was pricked and I can't see you stop your hurt ego trip.

Good luck with your investment though!!

"Best to look at the market itself and a 50%+ uplift since consolidation and a decent but hardly earth shattering TU suggests the market believes CPI is now at the point of delivering FCF and profits end of 2025 onwards."

GMan12 - Again, I can't agree more with this. Market is cutting through the noise of the TU, seeing growth in the all important Public division (>60% revenues and trending towards 70% I daresay), better incoming margins in H1 and H2 even in the struggling Contact Centre business and repricing accordingly. I'm not saying that the CPI train is on a one-way ticket higher - that is almost never the case and there will be bouts of profit-taking, but the near-term trajectory is very positive. It'll be fantastic if it breaks out to a new 52-high and consolidates there as weak hands get shaken out, along with the traders.

"Anyone else puzzled as to why worldquant have not taken their loss on this yet?"

This is the BDSM equivalent in the Hedgie world - they love the pain and suffering that the mark-to-market loss on their short brings to their well-being. The more they lose, the more they love it. Long may the pain levels rise!!

"make no mistake Savage’s DYOR sign-off started directly after I pointed out that he was giving financial advice to people to sell. Even now it rings hollow.

In my opinion he either is or works for a shorter and has hurt a lot of people here."

100% agreed with this, Trisor and hence the futility of engaging with Meekie. We LTHs like this run and long may it continue as the market re-prices based on the turnaround story that looks like its finally sticking!!! No more DEI obsessions or Vanity projects/strategic changes - just a good old common-sense approach to stripping out costs and adapting to a changed political environment in the UK with fiscal policies driving up cost of doing business.

"Of course, it implies that people are stupid enough to make an investment decision based on what they read on a free message board.

Surely even the dimmest dimwhit of Baldrickian proportions would know better!(?)"

You'd be surprised, Kipper. Plenty don't have the discipline to even not respond, and I'm sure some act on that too. No doubt weakened by their own convictions that Reverse Split is bad news, that we are going bankrupt and just needing that extra push from the likes of the pointless Meekie or the AimLess trader!! You reap what you sow though!!!