Member Info for GoCPI

Good for you MildLaddie. I hope you don't regret that you've left a lot out there on the table.

But then I forget that you only play with monopoly money.

Allez S4!!!

Poker - indeed. That end to end technical capabilities that Monks tech services now provides isn't something that holdcos necessarily have and we marry that up with strong data driven insights. It's a WPP wet dream.

I've been regularly tracking Linkedin posts from both Monks and Monks Tech services, and certainly in the Monks linkedin feed you see plenty of insightful updates, almost on daily basis now - that's not something that I'm used to. Whilst we're priced to fail on the LSE, the realty on the ground may just be that different.

Yes, indeed. China is shafted anyway and hence South America is a better growth pivot for S4 than China is.

And I'll be honest that I had no clue until I watched SMS' recent interview in Mexico that circa 3000 out of 7000 employees of S4 are based in Latin America (Mexico + South America). I suspect that when S4 has been trimming labour recently, down to 7000 from 7150 at the end of Q1, most of these cuts were from high cost North America employee base. Maybe there was some trimming during Q2 in those regions that we'll know more next month. Once revenue growth materialises in Q4 that lower cost base should set us up for a more balanced revenue/employee cost base from 2026 onwards.

Poker - no disagreement there on the rest of 2025 really positioning/setting up for 2026.

"I thought SMS comments about South America were very interesting" -- Did you mean our employee base or the 'growth' in that continent?

"It is H2 that is going to matter ...not really H1 ..as a large amount of that is largely known

Current Trading Update needed on Sep 15th and any further H2 Outlook"

100% and that's all the market wants to know. A circa 10 to 12% YoY revenue drop in H1 is baked in. It's whether there is an improvment in Q4 or not which will drive SP action for us. Q3 is likely still down YoY, IMO, as the ramp up of revenues should start in earnest in this quarter, but I suppose they'll put out a H2 guidance and keep it high-level at this stage.

If the trajectory is improving, that's what will then push us up meaningfully.

Some more nibbles yesterday and today. Probably done for now unless we go back into the 20s. Lets see what the 15th brings!!! A new dawn hopefully. going by the number of LinkedIn posts by Monks. ;-)

"his shorting masters"... But alas, the gaslighter is just a poor PI though who had done extensve reasearch on the financials and watched the SP more than double from 170p to over 350p!!! ROFL..

It's a sign of things to come post 2025!! Shut out the noise and wait for numbers to come out. GL Longs.

I can see our resident gaslighter, Meekie, is still very active on here with his constant dire tripe about trouble at CPI. His shorting pasters paying him 10p a post sure want a good ROI on their mindless short at 180p and hence the Gaslighter is at it with sub £2 call. ROFL!! Gaslighters united.

Hold the line chaps!!!

Pointless2000, AKA lse2000, forgot that he was logged in as ECUNOTD... ROFL at these clowns' antics.

Of course, he/they will be on here vehemently denying such an occurence.

@Auson - I'll give it another day or two, and then go chasing more!! :-) Can't believe we're at a circa £130m market cap, but that's the way it goes when the negativity is all-time highs.

I'm not disheartened though. I made decent returns on a sector that you know quite well - oil exploration companies on both sides of the pond, during/after Covid. Many were pariah investments priced for bankruptcy when their financials didn't call for that. Peak oil calls were rampant and so was demand destruction. It played out well for contrarians and that's how I view S4 too. A deep value play that's priced for bankruptcy. THat's not at all right from what I can see. And a decent Q4 guide will be epic here.

"I don't think you will get any at that price mate, have you got a quote to sell any decent volume right now ?"

@Auson - yes, it didn't land today.

"Probably both, sadly the last couple of years has leaked every time. Also expecting sh*te here but hopefully its at least in line with the sh*te H1 projections and not a sh*te surprise."

@Broke - you may well be right this. It is a leaky ship, but a double digit revenue decline for H1 is priced in and now a lot more. I suspect a double-digit YOY decline is what the market has priced in at these levels and hence the march lower to new ATLs. Is it possible, yes I suppose. Is it likely, no IMO.

@Auson - I've only put in a small limit order at 20.45, but I didn't check any sell quotes though. I know there's lot of negativity around based on price action and the AI is killing the agencies narrative, but I'm betting on the other team. THat's just my conviction though and not asking anyone else to bet the house on S4. :-)

Don't think so. If/when a new contract win lands that's when the next update is!!

I've put in a small buy order at 20.55, hasn't triggered yet but fully expect it to today.? I can't sit and explain away/justify every move lower and we're no back to ATLs - a couple of possibilities are 1. a news leak for H1, which would've been shiite anyway and 2. All the traders who bought in early last/late on te merger news are throwing the towel.

Good luck longs!! Value is not price.

" If S4 Capital wanted to make it clear that they had some beneficial interest in all of these invested companies then I think they would be broadcasting it rather than having it set up in such a way as they have"

They don't really need to broadcast it really - VC structures are well known and understood, but a VC ultimately makes money when their seed investment is evnetually sold on to another VC/Fund in a later stage financing round at a higher valuation that they could sell into OR when the company in question goes public and they sell at that stage. What the current value of their investments is, that's an unknown and you'd think its a lot higher that when the fund invested into these. Take Runway's recent circa $3b funding round valuation as an example.

I'm with NigeCo that the best valuation route for us is the NYSE, but I doubt that we'd want to go down that route - it's way too much work for SMS.

RWD - I wanted to write this before my plane took off but I couldn't, and here it goes. THere are 3 possible upside benefits for S4C from the S4Ventures investment.

1. Both VCs and Hedge Funds share a management fee/profit sharing structure. Typically for Hedge funds it's a 2/20 model - this breaks out to an annual 2% management fees based on the size of the fund (AUM), and a 20% profit share on any net gains realised from the fund's investments (called carried interest in the US). Both S4 and stanhope get 50% of the management fees as well as profits realised by the virtue of their shareholding %s.

2. It's unclear if S4V invested any seed capital from the initial capital that S4C/Stanhope put in S4V. If some of that capital went into the fund, they'll participate in the profits generated as % of the initial 100m fund size.

3. The last is, and this is more intangible, is that S4C gets easier/first mover access on any cool Marcom technology that the invested in firms deliver. Take Runway where we put together a cool offering with them and NVidia as partners. Whether we can easily monetise this is a question mark, but is a great plus for us.

I'm aligned with Poker that there is no real valuation for our company on the LSE by the virtue of it being easily tossed around lower by a few fear-mongerers posting on boards such as these - Take Pointless 2000's posts (and a few others) as an example. Whip up fear, get people to sell and this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy to new all-time lows. I can only hope/wish that SMS delivers the much needed killer blow next month with the H1 announcement. Market visibility should get better in the coming weeks too!!

S4 is the 50% owner as stated in the Annual Report and to me that's not something that can be incorrect - its the annual audited accounts and signed off by the auditor.

What could be incorrect/could be interpreted incorrectly is all the commentary surrounding it. The ownership structure for a Venture Capital fund can be very different to who are investing in the fund - they're 2 different things.

In this case you have S4 capital and stanhope investing 10m each for a 50% ownership stake each. And then you can have individual investors like SMS/Scott SPirit and a whole lot more people who have invested in S4S to get a share of profits based on their investment in the FUND that S4S ventures is managing on their behalf.

So yes, S4 Capital deifnitely has skin in the S4S ventures game!!!

Not going to happen IMO, 1Pencil. Unlike the deal that THG engineered to sell that standalone business, the businesses that S4 acquired were meant to geographically deliver a Marcomms/data/tech consulting business. I doubt many, if not any, of these standalone business have that required standalone capabulity to deliver value to another business, particularly after their head honchos are likely not around in the business OR their valuations in the current market conditions are dog shiite.

Martin is biding his time for when the macro change truly comes around in the US and that's the only dynamic that can alter S4's SP trajectory with a degree of certainty as long as we're listed on yje . I can't imagine that any of our overpriced acquiations would sell for anything that'll generate a decent amount of cash for us.

Excuse any typos as its been a long day out here.. :-)

Good weekend longs!!

"I honestly believe it's time to sell up here now for Martin Sorrell. " @Thunder - that's not going to happen and if that's the basis of your investment case, you'll continue to be sorely disappointed.

Poker is spot on with what he wrote about 'valuation' and in a shallow market like ours posting on here and getting a few holders to sell is all it takes to move the SP lower. SMS can't control that.

The only thing that can change this vicious cycle is either a small beat on revenue/profitability forecasts and a growing sense the US macro has actually stabilised - which it hasn't yet even though their markets are at all-time highs as they're looking forward to more sugar rush next year from the OBBB driven fiscal stimulus + more rate cuts.